Futures Calls Recap for 6/7/16
The markets opened basically flat (a small 1 point gap in the ES that never filled) and were very dead and not in sync (at one point, NASDAQ was strong and ES weak, but then that flipped. NASDAQ volume closed at 1.6 billion shares. We ended up closing Opening Ranges plays after they took forever to move. See that and the ES section below.
Net ticks: +7 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked enough for a partial:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A and I closed for 1 tick after everything took so long:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
Triggered long at A at 2113.00 and closed even in a dead market:
Forex Calls Recap for 6/7/16
We came into the session long the GBPUSD from the prior session, and that did not stop out. There was a spike in the pairs overnight. See the GBPUSD section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
A new call triggered at A on a news spike, so once again, you might not have gotten any. If you did, it hit first target at B. Either way, we raised the stop on the trade from the prior day and the new trade and closed out under R2:
Stock Picks Recap for 6/6/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, WFM triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked enough for a partial:
TRMB triggered long (with market support) and worked:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Mark's FSLR triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
Rich's BABA triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His AVGO triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
Rich's PCLN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, all of them worked.
Futures Calls Recap for 6/6/16
The markets gapped up and kept going a little on a weak 1.4 billion NASDAQ shares to start the week. We had a decent session. See the Opening Range and ES sections below.
Net ticks: +21 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and stopped (very tight as the OR was small), triggered long at B and worked great:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
My call triggered short at A at 2105.25, hit first target for 6 ticks, stopped second half over the entry. There was also a nice setup long over R1 right out of the program that we discussed in the Lab:
Forex Calls Recap for 6/6/16
A boring session that still gave us some gains. See EURUSD and GBPUSD sections below. Also, the only Comber 13 of the session was on the NZDUSD and it worked perfectly. Check that out too.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
One out of three pieces of the trade triggered short at A and stopped. Good example of why we order stagger:
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, second half stopped. We put it back in in the morning, triggered long at C, hit first target at D, still holding second half with a stop under VAL:
c
Tradesight May 2016 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results. You can see these monthly here.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
Of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So these were the results for April, which you can view here.
Tradesight Stock Results for April 2016
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 80
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 18 (22.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 28 (35%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 34 (42.5%)
And for May?
Tradesight Stock Results for May 2016
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 98
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 22 (22.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 40 (40.8%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 36 (36.7%)
More trades triggered in May than in April and the losing percentage stayed exactly at 22.5%, which is lower than we need but obviously helps. You can tell that the market was a little less energized though, as the big winners and small winners flipped as a percentage, meaning we had about 10% less plays that continued beyond a partial for the month. Still, almost halfway through the year, our targets are easily being met, and with each passing month, it will get harder to move the averages for the year.
Tradesight May 2016 Futures Results
Before we get to May’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from April. The full report from April can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for April 2016
Number of trades: 64
Number of losers: 19
Winning percentage: 70.3%
Net ticks: +153 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Twitter feed exactly as we call them and manage them as well as the Opening Range plays under the basic strategy we teach for those in our course. We do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Twitter calls.
It is important to note that these results do not include the Tradesight Value Area or Institutional Range plays, all of which have been working quite well on their own.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for May 2016
Number of trades: 63
Number of losers: 24
Winning percentage: 61.9%
Net ticks: +67 ticks
We finally had a definite slip in the win/loss ratio as market volume and action seemed to slow down quite a bit in May. The Opening Range plays worked about 65% of the time instead of the usual 75%, and everything else was slimmer pickings as well. Still, easily a winning month despite a bad start the opening week. We shall see what June brings.
Tradesight May 2016 Forex Results
Before we get to May’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from April. The full report from April can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for April 2016
Number of trades: 27
Number of losers: 13
Winning percentage: 51.8%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row
Net pips: +115 pips
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for May 2016
Number of trades: 27
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 48.1%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +225 pips
May continued the general feel of April...not that exciting. However, we did have a few days where the markets pushed long enough to give us nice multi-day winners. Here again, we see a month where we actually won less than 50% of our trades, but still made money because of the way we manage our losers and move on. This won't hurt the win/loss ratio for the year, but it certainly adds to the gains for the year. On to June...
Stock Picks Recap for 6/3/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His UNH triggered long (without market support) and worked:
His LNKD triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His AMBA triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His CIEN triggered long (without market support) and worked:
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, all 3 of them worked.
Futures Calls Recap for 6/3/16
The markets gapped down on the NFP/Unemployment Rate data (plus Trade Balance) and went even lower initially before working their way back up to the opening area for the close. NASDAQ volume was 1.5 billion shares.
Net ticks: +19.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
