Stock Picks Recap for 3/7/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, MTSI triggered long (with market support) and worked:
SPNC triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial if you held on:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, QCOM triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Mark's STMP triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
His WYNN triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
TSLA triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
Rich's MU triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His V triggered short (without market support) and worked:
His GOOGL triggered short (without market support) and worked:
His GS triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
FSLR triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 10 trades triggering with market support, 8 of them worked, 2 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 3/7/16
An interesting session that gapped down, started to head up, then the NASDAQ side went to lows while the broad market held up. Eventually, both sides filled the gap and that was the high (when the NASDAQ did it). We then rolled back over after lunch and closed near lows on 1.9 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: +19.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked, triggered short at B and worked:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
Forex Calls Recap for 3/7/16
Fun session that worked exactly to our Levels. See the GBPUSD section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop in the morning and stopped at C. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, note the 13 sell signal to match, and still holding second half:
Tradesight February 2016 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results. You can see these monthly here.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
Of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So there were the results for December from last month.
Tradesight Stock Results for January 2016
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 143
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 32 (22.4%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 66 (46.2%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 45 (31.4%)
And for February?
Tradesight Stock Results for February 2016
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 132
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 26 (19.7%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 48 (36.3%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 58 (44%)
The overall win rate is 80.3%, topping January's huge 77.6% number, and really no surprise given the volatility that we’ve seen in the markets to start the year. You don't need anything near that number to be making money in the markets, and it won't hold, but overall, our averages for the year should exceed our goals.
Tradesight February 2016 Futures Results
Before we get to February’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from January. The full report from January can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for January 2016
Number of trades: 58
Number of losers: 21
Winning percentage: 63.8%
Net ticks: +162 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Twitter feed exactly as we call them and manage them as well as the Opening Range plays under the basic strategy we teach for those in our course. We do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Twitter calls.
It is important to note that these results do not include the Tradesight Value Area or Institutional Range plays, all of which have been working quite well on their own.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for February 2016
Number of trades: 58
Number of losers: 18
Winning percentage: 69%
Net ticks: +145 ticks
Our futures service continues to chug along nicely, putting up impressive gains again in February after a solid start of the year in January. We had Opening Range plays 20 days in the month, and the net results were positive 15 times, or 75%. The rest of our calls worked great as well. We had some big swings early in the month that led to some wild winners. Things did slow down a bit in the last week. The Opening Range results continue to be about on track with most of last year and what we have seen historically.
Tradesight February 2016 Forex Results
Before we get to February’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from January. The full report from January can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for January 2016
Number of trades: 26
Number of losers: 13
Winning percentage: 50%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row
Net pips: +155 pips
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for February 2016
Number of trades: 31
Number of losers: 15
Winning percentage: 51.6%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row
Net pips: +195 pips
Although the last week of February saw quite a few stop outs that gave back what had been an even more impressive month, we still did well overall. It's nice to be up so many pips while only winning about half of trades. The last week we had 10 triggers and 8 stopped out, so that really brought the month back, but no complaints. This is still a great time of year for Forex trading.
Stock Picks Recap for 3/4/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Mark's NFLX triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial, worked better later:
FB triggered short (just barely with market support) and didn't work:
GPRO triggered long (just barely with market support) and worked:
Rich's CMG triggered long (without market support) and worked:
BABA triggered long (with market support) and didn't really do much in either direction for hours:
Mark's QCOM triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 3/4/16
The markets gapped up and sold off quickly, giving us nice Opening Range plays. I posted an NQ call that missed the first target by a tick and then stopped, and I didn't put it back in but it worked great the second time. The markets rallied midday and came back after lunch on 2 billion NASDAQ shares, strangely the best of the week.
Net ticks: +14 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Triggered long at A at 4326.00 and stopped. I did not put it back in but should have, as it worked perfectly on the next attempt:
Forex Calls Recap for 3/4/16
There's a great example of why we lower size ahead of the three big economic numbers that come out each month. See EURUSD section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
EURUSD:
So we were half size ahead of the key data (NFP and Trade Balance, two of our Big Three each month coming out at the same time), and this is a good example of why. Triggered short at A on the news and stopped, then triggered long at B and stopped. After that, we can put the trades back in for full size. Triggered at C, hit first target at D, closed second half at E for end of week:
Stock Picks Recap for 3/3/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's TWTR triggered long (without market support) and worked:
His CIEN triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
NTAP triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Mark's SNDK triggered long (without market support) and worked:
Rich's AMZN triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
His SPY triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:
His OIH triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn't go enough in either direction to count:
GS triggered long (with market support) and didn't go enough in either direction to count:
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.