Forex Calls Recap for 2/9/16
Gains on the EURUSD for the session as the world markets continue to move. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Part (but not all under our order staggering rules) of the short triggered at A and stopped. Long triggered at B, hit first target at C, raised stop in the morning and stopped at D:
Tradesight January 2016 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results. You can see these monthly here.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
Of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So there were the results for December from last month.
Tradesight Stock Results for December 2015
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 115
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 30 (26.0%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 50 (43.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 35 (30.5%)
Can that continue to hold? Here are the results for January.
Tradesight Stock Results for January 2016
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 143
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 32 (22.4%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 66 (46.2%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 45 (31.4%)
The overall win rate is 77.6%, one of our best ever, and really no surprise given the volatility that we've seen in the markets to start the year. The movement and ranges were above normal for a January. The number of trades that triggered was also up due to the moves. Nothing to complain about to start the year. The middle category of small winners outsized the others, but with the losers down to their lowest percentage we've seen (22.4%), it's all good. This is just one example of how to put together a solid month.
Tradesight January 2016 Futures Results
Before we get to January’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from December. The full report from December can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for December 2015
Number of trades: 5
Number of losers: 1
Winning percentage: 80%
Net ticks: +24.5 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Twitter feed exactly as we call them and manage them as well as the Opening Range plays under the basic strategy we teach for those in our course. We do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Twitter calls.
It is important to note that these results do not include the Tradesight Value Area or Institutional Range plays, all of which have been working quite well on their own.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for January 2016
Number of trades: 58
Number of losers: 21
Winning percentage: 63.8%
Net ticks: +162 ticks
For 2016, we are now officially including the Opening Range Plays daily in our monthly tracking results, along with our regular sample calls. We had Opening Range plays 22 days in the month, and the net results were positive 17 times, or 77%. The rest of our calls worked great as well. January is always an interesting, but this one in particular got off to a wild start, which is great for trading. At the end of December, the six month daily range average on the ES was 24 points and NQ was 65 points. By the end of January, these had moved to almost 28 and 74. That is a significant change in a 6 month average. Great trading conditions. I expect a solid 2016. The Opening Range results continue to be about on track with most of last year and what we have seen historically.
Tradesight January 2016 Forex Results
Before we get to January’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from December. The full report from December can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for December 2015
Number of trades: 19
Number of losers: 7
Winning percentage: 63.7%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +175 pips
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for January 2016
Number of trades: 26
Number of losers: 13
Winning percentage: 50%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row
Net pips: +155 pips
January can be interesting. It starts off slow typically and has a Holiday in the middle of the month. Still, it's a nice start to the year for us. Overall, the ranges didn't change much. They are sitting slightly under historic norms. Good start to 2016!
Stock Picks Recap for 2/5/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, INCR triggered short (with market support) and worked:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, SNDK triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's DECK triggered long (without market support) and worked:
Rich's AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His DATA triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
His AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His VXX triggered long (ETF, no market support needed) and worked:
In total, that's 5 trades triggering with market support, all of them worked.
Futures Calls Recap for 2/5/16
The markets gapped down and kept going on Friday, although the afternoon was slow as to be expected. NASDAQ volume was 2.2 billion shares though, which is good. Nice Opening Range plays.
Net ticks: +17.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
Forex Calls Recap for 2/5/16
A loser and a winner to wrap up the week. See EURUSD section below. This is why we go half size ahead of key numbers. The spikes will sweep you out.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, stopped second half at D:
Stock Picks Recap for 2/4/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Mark's NEM triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's FAS triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn't work:
His ALXN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's GS triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His CMG triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's GOOGL triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His KSS triggered short (without market support) and worked:
His AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His MNST triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His SCTY triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 9 trades triggering with market support, 8 of them worked, 1 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 2/4/16
A less exciting day in the markets. The markets gapped down a little, filled in the first hour or so, and then that was the whole range for the day, and we settled on the midpoint VWAP waiting for Trade Balance and Unemployment tomorrow morning, as I predicted in the YouTube preview from last night. See Opening Range and ES sections below. NASDAQ volume was 2 billion shares.
Net ticks: -14 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and stopped, triggered short at B and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A and would have worked, but I didn't take because the trigger was too far below the range under my rules:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
Triggered short under the Pivot at A and stopped for 7 ticks:
Forex Calls Recap for 2/4/16
We came into the session still long the second half of the prior day's play well in the money, and that (just barely) stopped out in the money. We then had a new winner on EURUSD, see that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, stopped second half at C:
