Futures Calls Recap for 1/6/16
The markets gapped down on lower oil, a potential nuclear test out of North Korea, and reports of reduced production by Apple. It was a big gap. Initially, we pushed higher (Opening Range plays were a wash as the ES got stopped but NQ worked). Then we pulled back over lunch and sat in neutral territory, and then we sold off in the last hour. The gaps didn't fill (in fact, the 50% gap fill was exactly the high on the ES), and we closed on 1.9 billion NASDAQ shares. Two ES calls worked, see that section below.
Net ticks: +21.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and barely stopped:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked, washing out the ES loss:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
My call triggered long at A at 1988.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped second half under the entry. Mark's call triggered short at B at 1977.25, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped second half over the entry (the stop should have been adjusted down one more time but wasn't posted):
Forex Calls Recap for 1/6/16
There is a reason that we go to half size ahead of big numbers like Trade Balance. The sessions ahead are often dull and don't go far, and then sometimes spike on the news. In this case, there was no spike, but we triggered both the long and short and went nowhere, so better to be half size. See EURUSD section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped:
Stock Picks Recap for 1/5/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, CERS triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
DLTR triggered long (with market support) and worked:
INFN triggered short (with market support) and didn't work (by a penny):
MEOH triggered short (with market support) and didn't work (by a penny, very weird):
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's BABA triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
His FSLR triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
His FB triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His BABA triggered long (with market support) and worked a little:
In total, that's 7 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 4 did not, including two trades that swept by a penny. Unusual.
Futures Calls Recap for 1/5/16
A flat opening and a back and forth day with market direction changing 7 times. NASDAQ volume was 1.7 billion shares. Opening range plays both worked, as did the main call. See ES section below.
Net ticks: +16 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A a full 25 minutes into the market and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
My call triggered short at A at 1997.25 going into the Value Area, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped second half over the entry:
Forex Calls Recap for 1/5/16
Another winner for the week (3 for 3 in 2016 so far). This one is in the EURUSD and still going. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, still holding second half with a stop over S1 at C:
Stock Picks Recap for 1/4/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's LVS triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His PXD triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
His APC triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
TSLA triggered short (without market support) and worked:
His FB triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His AMZN triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
His BABA triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, all 3 of them worked.
Futures Calls Recap for 1/4/16
Always nice to start the year green, and the Opening Range plays worked for us. The markets gapped down big on global issues, but the intraday trading wasn't very volatile and we closed barely below where we opened. We didn't trade anywhere near average daily range. The good news is that volume was back to 2 billion NASDAQ shares, so we're off to the races there. Things will hopefully improve as the week unfolds, and hopefully we don't get big gaps every day. Our main trade call never triggered.
Net ticks: +17.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
Forex Calls Recap for 1/4/16
Always nice to start the year in the green, and we had two winners for the session. See EURUSD section below. We still have the second half of the short trade.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, stopped second half at C. Triggered short at D, hit first target at E, still holding second half with at stop over S1:
Tradesight December 2015 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
In our system, of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So there were the results for November from last month.
Tradesight Stock Results for November 2015
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 96
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 23 (24.0%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 33 (34.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 40 (41.5%)
Can that continue to hold? Here are the results for December.
Tradesight Stock Results for December 2015
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 115
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 30 (26.0%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 50 (43.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 35 (30.5%)
Interestingly, despite the fact that the last two weeks of the year tends to be slow, we had more triggers in December than November by almost 20. The percentage of small losers stayed about the same. The percentage of trades that were only small winners went up a bit, while the big winners went down a bit but still held close to the 33% target. This isn't really surprising to see, as you would expect less stocks to run far in the last two weeks of the year, so we got more that just went enough for a partial. Still, very nice results and right in line with our targets from our system.
Tradesight December 2015 Futures Results
Before we get to December’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from November. The full report from October can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for November 2015
Number of trades: 9
Number of losers: 4
Winning percentage: 55.5%
Net ticks: +14.5 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
It is important to note that these results do not include the Tradesight Value Area, Opening Range, or Institutional Range plays, all of which have been working quite well on their own.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for December 2015
Number of trades: 5
Number of losers: 1
Winning percentage: 80%
Net ticks: +24.5 ticks
Things slowed down considerably for the last two weeks of the year, so we didn't really make many regular calls. Our Opening Range plays worked 15 out of 21 days in the month yet again, tallying up more than 100 ticks by themselves easily. We will also post a 2015 futures total tick count recap soon.