Futures Calls Recap for 12/7/15
The markets opened fairly flat, although the ES had a 2 point gap down that never filled. We pushed lower slowly and spent most of the day inside the Value Areas on 1.7 billion NASDAQ shares as we start the Hanukkah holiday. Opening range play on the ES worked as well.
Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A but was probably too far outside the range to take because it was a big candle:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
Triggered short at A at 2077.50, first target for 6 ticks, stopped second half over entry:
Forex Calls Recap for 12/7/15
No calls for the session as the Levels weren't lined up very well, and that turned out to be a good thing as neither of the calls that I was considering would have worked.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Tradesight November 2015 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we didn't historically post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, last month we started posted our results.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
In our system, of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So there were the results for October from last month.
Tradesight Stock Results for October 2015
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 117
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 31 (26.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 45 (38.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 41 (35%)
Can that continue to hold? Here are the results for November.
Tradesight Stock Results for November 2015
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 96
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 23 (24.0%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 33 (34.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 40 (41.5%)
Less trades in the month is not a surprise considering the Veteran's Day Holiday plus the Thanksgiving week. Still, our ratios remain remarkably close, and we even boost the percentages for the big winners to a higher level, which isn't necessary to have success. Overall, just a great month once again for our stock trading.
Tradesight November 2015 Futures Results
Before we get to November’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from October. The full report from October can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for October 2015
Number of trades: 11
Number of losers: 4
Winning percentage: 63.6%
Net ticks: +20.5 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
It is important to note that these results do not include the Tradesight Value Area, Opening Range, or Institutional Range plays, all of which have been working quite well on their own.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for November 2015
Number of trades: 9
Number of losers: 4
Winning percentage: 55.5%
Net ticks: +14.5 ticks
We had an interesting month with the Veteran's Day bank holiday in the middle of one week and Thanksgiving killing about half of another. We made the least number of regular calls of the year and even a few didn't trigger. Meanwhile, the Opening Range Plays alone continued to pay the bills, locking in well over 100 additional ticks with 13 winners out of 19 days of trading. Even that was the worst win ratio of the year (you know you have something good when a 68.4% win rate is considered bad). On to December...
Tradesight November 2015 Forex Results
Before we get to November’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from October. The full report from October can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for October 2015
Number of trades: 20
Number of losers: 4
Winning percentage: 80%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +345 pips
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for November 2015
Number of trades: 21
Number of losers: 13
Winning percentage: 38%
Worst losing streak: 6 in a row
Net pips: -35 pips
After all of the positive months that we've had this year in Forex, it is hard to believe that November was just barely red. It's usually a great month. However, it started out fine and then really slowed down for a week after the attacks in France, and that caused us to lose 6 trades in a row, a record for 2015. Add that to the short week for Thanksgiving and we just ran out of time. Ranges were getting back to normal at the end of the month, but there was just not enough going on for the month to get things going. Still, in a month where we only won 38% of our trades, to lose just 35 pips is fine.
Stock Picks Recap for 12/4/15
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's FFIV triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
His APC triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Mark's SAVE triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked enough for a partial:
Rich's IBB triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked great:
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 12/4/15
The markets opened fairly flat despite all of the data (Trade Balance and NFP) and then rallied for most of the session on 1.7 billion NASDAQ shares. Our Opening Range plays worked huge again.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked great again:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A and might have been too far above the boundary to take, but it worked:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
Forex Calls Recap for 12/4/15
A really surprisingly dull session considering both the NFP/Unemployment Rate and Trade Balance data came out. GBPUSD range was 70 pips. One small winner. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, second half stopped:
Stock Picks Recap for 12/3/15
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, XRAY triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Mark's COST triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Rich's IBB triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:
His BABA triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His PCLN triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His NFLX triggered long (without market support just barely) and worked enough for a partial:
BMRN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, all 4 of them worked.
Futures Calls Recap for 12/3/15
A flat opening and some awkward movement early, but some great Opening Range plays again (see that section below). Eventually, the markets headed lower and closed near lows of the session on 1.9 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
