Tradesight October 2015 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don't post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I've never been a fan of trying to "hype" or "promote" something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn't always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say "These are the exact results." I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That's $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, we have had enough people ask us to give some sort of statistically valid breakdown of our results, and we have final settled on what I believe is a fair and representative way of tracking results based on the system that we teach.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I've been trading for 20 years now, and I've trained over 1000 people. You don't make money if you don't have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
In our system, of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don't allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that's what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So from now on, each month, we are going to create a report like the Futures and Forex results that tracks the number of trades that triggered each month (with market support) and how many fell into each of the three categories.
Tradesight Stock Results for October 2015
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 117
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 31 (26.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 45 (38.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 41 (35%)
Obviously, in every sense, this is a terrific month for us. Winning trades in general were 73.5% of all trades, which is above the 67% that we want them to be. When you trade like this, you are definitely doing well as long as you capture those bigger gains when they are offered.
We will continue to post these results monthly along with the daily recaps, and we may even go back to January this year to put together the year's results before 2016 begins.
To see the day by day breakdown of these trades, follow this link and go back to the posted reports from October 1 to October 31.
Tradesight October 2015 Forex Results
Before we get to October’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from September. The full report from September can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for September 2015
Number of trades: 32
Number of losers: 18
Winning percentage: 43.8%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row
Net pips: +35 pips
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for October 2015
Number of trades: 20
Number of losers: 4
Winning percentage: 80%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +345 pips
Less trades triggered in October than in prior months, but we ran at an 80% success rate, which is way above normal and basically guarantees a solid month. We didn't see as many big winners that carried over day to day as we had in the prior couple of months, but success over the course of a year comes with a combination of winning closer to 60% of the trades AND having some big winners. This month was more the former.
We are in a good time of year for Forex trading right now.
Tradesight October 2015 Futures Results
Before we get to October’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from September. The full report from September can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for September 2015
Number of trades: 13
Number of losers: 6
Winning percentage: 53.8%
Net ticks: +21.5 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
It is important to note that these results do not include the Tradesight Value Area, Opening Range, or Institutional Range plays, all of which have been working quite well on their own.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for October 2015
Number of trades: 11
Number of losers: 4
Winning percentage: 63.6%
Net ticks: +20.5 ticks
There were a few slow days in October, but most of the month was fairly steady with improved volume and ranges. There were 22 trading days in the month, and our Opening Range plays worked 19 out of 22 days, although we don't count those in the results above because they are mechanical plays. We may start to officially track them in 2016 as they have been a source of a lot of profits for traders this year again.
With the exception of the Thanksgiving week later in the month, November is usually a solid trading month.
Stock Picks Recap for 11/6/15
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's GS triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
His FB triggered short (with market support) and worked:
AMGN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Mark's SWKS triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's NFLX triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
His MW triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His HLF triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His VRX triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His FEYE triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 2 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 11/6/15
No main calls on a flat day, although there was a nice setup in the ES under the VAL.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and didn't work, triggered short at B and did:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked, then triggered short at B and worked:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
Forex Calls Recap for 11/6/15
Another winner to close out the week. Over 100 pips made to the final target in the GBPUSD. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, went a lot lower and stopped at C for 110 pips:
Stock Picks Recap for 11/5/15
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ELNK triggered long (with market support) and worked a little:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's VRX triggered short (with market support) and worked great, huge winner:
Mark's ADSK triggered long (with market support) and worked:
TEVA triggered short (without market support) and worked:
Rich's BLUE triggered short (without market support) and worked:
His IBB triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, all 4 of them worked.
Futures Calls Recap for 11/5/15
A winner from our regular calls, but the Opening Range plays failed both ways for the first time in a while. See the NQ section below. The markets opened fairly flat, tried both directions, and closed down just a little on 1.8 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: +7 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and stopped, triggered long at B and stopped:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A and stopped, triggered short at B and stopped although that might have triggered a little too far below the Opening Range to take:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
My call triggered short at 4690.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, lowered stop three times and stopped 8 ticks in the money on the rest:
Forex Calls Recap for 11/5/15
Came into the session short and in the money on the second half of the prior day's trade. That stopped in the money over LBreak. Then, both of the new trades triggered and stopped. See EURUSD below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped:
Stock Picks Recap for 11/4/15
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SBGI gapped over, no play.
EBAY triggered long (without market support) and didn't go enough either direction to count:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, BMRN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His BABA triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
WYNN triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
TEVA triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's DIS triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 2 did not.