Tradesight Recap Report for 1/4/22
Overview
The markets gapped up, filled, bounced all over the place, and basically closed even (NASDAQ down a lot) on 5.1 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked enough for a partial, triggered short at B and stopped over the midpoint:
NQ Opening Range Play, triggered short at A but too far out of range to take:
Results: -9 ticks
Forex:
A winner for the session, but it is still going.
GBPUSD triggered long at A, hit first target at B, still holding second half with a stop under VAH at C:
Results: trade is still going
Stocks:
Back to work, although it wasn't the excitement I was looking for. Still, two big winners.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, no calls.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, Rich's SNOW triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His DASH triggered short (with market support) and worked:
That’s 2 triggers with market support, both of them worked.
Tradesight Recap Report for 1/3/22
Overview
The markets gapped up, dropped down to fill, and then were sitting even on the midpoint/VWAP over lunch before inching up to close the session on 4.4 billion NASDAQ shares with no one around.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long and worked enough for a partial, triggered short but too far out of range to take:
NQ Opening Range Play, no triggers in range:
Results: +4 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD, no calls with the rest of the world on Holiday:
Results: +0 pips
Stocks:
A boring day with nothing that mattered with most of the world on Holiday.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, no calls.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, Rich's DVN triggered long (with market support) and didn't do enough to count, close a penny in the money.
That’s 1 trigger with market support, and nothing to count.
Tradesight 2021 Trading Results
2021 was an interesting year in the markets. The VIX made its way back into the teens by April for the first time since the COVID crisis began in March of 2020. However, NASDAQ volume, which had jumped from about 2 billion shares a day prior to COVID to around 4.5 billion shares a day once COVID hit, actually spent most of the year (really starting after the November 2020 Election) even higher. There were some "lighter" periods over the summer, but even then, we rarely dipped under 4 billion shares. With all of that, the S&P tacked on about another 1100 points, closing near 4800, or up about 29%. Obviously, the markets are over-valued with all of the money that has been printed and with the Fed action since COVID began. I wouldn't expect this to continue in 2022. In fact, I think it is safe to say that 2022 will be much better for smart traders than investors.
We continued to succeed in our trading in all of the asset classes that we follow (crypto coming in 2022? Stay tuned.)
Let's start with Forex.
Our official trade results in Forex count the hard calls that we make each day. They do not count our Value Area plays or Seeker/Comber trades, as you can always find those in any given symbol on any given day, and they would be too numerous to count. In total, we had 192 trade calls trigger in 2021 in Forex. Of those, 108 were winners (56.25%). Our target win ratio for our trading system is between 50 and 60 percent, so we landed precisely in that range. Total pip gains for the year in Forex was 1089 pips. You can review the monthly Forex results by clicking here. You can even follow the links on each summary to see every trade we called day-by-day.
Next up, futures.
Again, our official trade results in Futures count the Opening Range plays in the ES and NQ and our hard calls only. We do not count Opening Range trades in other symbols because not everyone wants to trade the less liquid contracts. We do not count the Value Area plays or the Seeker/Comber trades, or any of the other trading systems that we teach, as those could be countless if you applied them to all symbols. In total, we had 281 futures trades trigger in 2021. Of those, a whopping 213 were winners (75.8%)! Total tick gains for the year landed around 1177 ticks. You can review the monthly Futures results by clicking here. Again, you can even follow the links on each summary to see every trade we called day-by-day.
Finally, stocks (we don't track options trades as every person can apply different options strategies that we teach to each trade). We count all of our stock calls that trigger with market support (on the S&P) under the rules that we teach in our program. In 2021, we had 369 total stock trades trigger officially. 96 (26%) were kept to small losses. 86 (23.3%) were small winners (worked enough for a partial, never did much else). 187 (50.7%) were bigger winners, meaning they hit a partial and more. That puts the total win ratio at 73.98%, which is above our target of 65%. You can review the Stock results and all stock trades starting here.
I should also point out that there were no negative months in stocks, no negative months in futures (although January only saw 8 ticks of gains), and only ONE negative month in Forex (surprise...August).
This is about as complete of a year as you can get in trading and it shows that in every asset class, our approach to the markets works. While I doubt 2022 will see another steady climb in the markets (as I said above), I suspect that we will do equally well no matter what happens. Good luck to us all.
Tradesight December 2021 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results. You can see these monthly here.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
Of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So these were the results for November, which you can view here.
Tradesight Stock Results for November 2021
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 15
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 2 (13.3%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 3 (20%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 10 (66.7%)
And for December?
Tradesight Stock Results for December 2021
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 29
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 9 (31%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 8 (27.6%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 12 (41.4%)
We wrap up the year running more trades than we did in November. Despite a very slow last week of the year (as usual), we still locked in a 69% win rate and had several nice winners. A decent way to wrap up 2021.
Tradesight December 2021 Futures Results
Before we get to December's numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from November. The full report from November can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for November 2021
Number of trades: 29
Number of losers: 9
Winning percentage: 68.9%
Net ticks: +56.5
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Twitter feed exactly as we call them and manage them as well as the Opening Range plays under the basic strategy we teach for those in our course. We do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Twitter calls.
It is important to note that these results do not include the Tradesight Value Area or Institutional Range plays, all of which have been working quite well on their own.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for December 2021
Number of trades: 18
Number of losers: 3
Winning percentage: 83.3%
Net ticks: +78
As with anything in the markets, December usually means less trades. The last week of the year in particular was extremely dull and volume dried up. Still, we locked in another month of solid gains to wrap up the year.
Tradesight December 2021 Forex Results
Before we get to the December numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from November. The full report from November can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for November 2021
Number of trades: 15
Number of losers: 5
Winning percentage: 66.7%
Worst losing streak: 2
Net pips: +155
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls wrapped up in the recap reports for the calendar month count.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for December 2021
Number of trades: 14
Number of losers: 6
Winning percentage: 57.1%
Worst losing streak: 2
Net pips: +60
The last month of the year is never exciting, especially in the last two weeks. This was our least number of trades in a month all year, but we still pulled out gains and an average winning percentage.
Tradesight Recap Report for 12/30/21
Overview
The markets gapped up small, went flat, and then filled in the last hour and went lower on 3.7 billion shares, which is light and means everyone is gone.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A and short at B but both too far out of range to take:
Results: +9.5 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD triggered short under the Pivot and stopped:
Results: -25 pips
Stocks:
Another boring session for the week ending the year.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, no calls.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, nothing triggered.
That’s 0 triggers with market support.
Tradesight Recap Report for 12/29/21
Overview
The markets opened flat and went a bit lower early and were choppy and then came back up on 3.6 billion NASDAQ shares which is awful volume (the world is done for the year). We closed S&P up 6 and NDX up 2. Boring.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked, triggered short at B and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A but too far out of range to take:
Results: +25 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD, no calls for the session:
Results: +0 pips
Stocks:
Not an interesting day and we are likely done for the year.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, no calls.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, Rich's QCOM triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
His CAT triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
His TSLA triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
That’s 3 triggers with market support, 1 of them worked and 2 didn’t.
Tradesight Recap Report for 12/28/21
Overview
The markets opened flat to higher and then tried to push up for a few minutes and went flat. We later came back down but drifted up to close even on 3.6 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and stopped under the midpoint:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A but too far out of range to take:
Results: -14 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD triggered long at A and stopped:
Results: -25 pips
Stocks:
Not much to do again. Year might be ending.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, no calls.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, there were a few calls, but nothing triggered.
That’s 0 triggers with market support.
Tradesight Recap Report for 12/27/21
Overview
The markets gapped up small and eventually kept going higher with no sellers for the end of the year on a weak 3.7 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A but too far out of range to take:
Results: +9 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD, no calls as most of the world was on Holiday:
Results: +0 pips
Stocks:
This was never going to be a normal day with the light volume with the rest of the world closed. The expected outcome was that we headed higher with no one selling for end of year. Volume was horrible.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, no calls.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, no calls.
That’s 0 triggers with market support.