Forex Calls Recap for 3/24/15
Two losers overnight for half size each ahead of the CPI data, and then we went full size and had a winner. See EURUSD below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, stopped on the CPI spike at C (which is why we are half size ahead of the big numbers) even though it would have then hit the first target at D. Both trades were valid again as I posted for full size after the data, so triggered short at E, hit first target at F, and closed second half at G:
Stock Picks Recap for 3/23/15
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
Strange day in terms of the results as most of the trades triggered (both ways) without market support).
From the report, SONS triggered short (without market support) and worked:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's JAZZ triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
His VRTX triggered short (without market support) and worked:
His AMZN triggered long (without market support) and almost worked enough for a partial:
GS triggered short (without market support) and didn't work (swept by a penny initially), but worked later with market support:
NTAP triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
COST triggered long (with market support) but wasn't doing anything so I posted a close at the entry:
In total, that's 1 trade triggering with market support, and I closed it even, while there were actually some winners like SONS that should have been taken for small size that worked.
Futures Calls Recap for 3/23/15
A wasted session. Mixed results on the Opening Range plays and one loser on the ES that we did not re-enter. NASDAQ volume closed at only 1.6 billion shares to start the new options cycle.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
A fairly flat opening in the markets and a really flat session as well until the last couple of minutes when we sold off. NASDAQ volume closed at only 1.45 billion shares, one of the weakest of the year.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play, the short trigger at A is too far outside the range to take, and the long triggered at B and didn't work:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
Triggered long at A at 2106.75 and stopped for 7 ticks:
Forex Calls Recap for 3/23/15
A loser and a winner to start the week, both in the GBPUSD. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target at C, and if you were awake, you would have lowered stop over the entry, otherwise, the second half stopped at the original stop:
Stock Picks Recap for 3/20/15
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, NVAX triggered long (with market support) and I traded it out flat:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, nothing triggered.
In total, that's basically no trades that mattered for options expiration, which is normal.
Futures Calls Recap 3/20/15
The markets gapped up for triple expiration and for the first hour, all of the candles were dead flat, so we basically gave up as you should for expiration. I had one call that I ended up cancelling, but it never triggered, but the Opening Range plays and Institutional Range plays worked. NASDAQ volume closed at 2.4 billion, which isn't that impressive for triple expiration. The ES closed in the top half of the day's range while the NQ closed at the low.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked, just took forever:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked ultimately, but I don't like being long one and short the other:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
ES:
Forex Calls Recap for 3/20/15
We closed out the second half of the prior day's GBPUSD for 165 pips gain. We had an unfortunate EURUSD trade that stopped out before going on to work nicely. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
EURUSD:
After a nice run, we finally got barely stopped out of a trade that went on to work great. The EURUSD long triggered just to the left of the start of this chart at A over UBreak, but barely stopped at B by a couple of pips. If you were awake overnight to put it back in, it triggered again at C, hit first target at D, and went on for another nice winner, but we've had a nice run anyway:
Tradesight February 2015 Forex Results
Before we get to February’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from January. The full report from January can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for January 2015
Number of trades: 23
Number of losers: 13
Winning percentage: 43.4%
Worst losing streak: 6 in a row
Net pips: -50 pips
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for February 2015
Number of trades: 23
Number of losers: 12
Winning percentage: 47.8%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row
Net pips: +85 pips
The start of February felt like the Forex market was still scarred by the shock of the Swiss National Bank news from January. The ranges were poor and not much was going on, as if everyone were afraid to trade. This led to some losses early, but then things started to pick up again in the second half of the month as that shock wore off, and we started to see more normal Forex trading again. By the end of the month, 6-month average daily ranges on the EURUSD and GBPUSD had risen 6 and 7 pips, respectively, which is a decent amount on a 6-month average. As I write this, March is already much-improved, so it feels like the Forex market is back to normal after the SNB-shock detour.
Tradesight February 2015 Futures Results
Before we get to February’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from January. The full report from January can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for January 2015
Number of trades: 10
Number of losers: 2
Winning percentage: 83.3%
Net ticks: +56 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
It is important to note that these results do not include the Tradesight Value Area, Opening Range, or Institutional Range plays, all of which have been working quite well on their own.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for February 2015
Number of trades: 20
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 50.0%
Net ticks: -14.5 ticks
After a couple of solid months, the futures really slowed down (with market volume in general) for February, especially the second half of the month. While we consistently win the Opening Range plays (and the Institutional Range plays are solid too), the rest of the technical setups were mixed. By my count, out of 19 trading days in February, the Opening Range plays worked 14 of them, which is nice. We had several days without calls and certainly others without triggers because market volume seemed too light. March is already slightly improved from this, but volume in the markets is still hit or miss, and we like to see good volume to expect good technical futures action.
Stock Picks Recap for 3/19/15
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market direcstional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, TSRA triggered long (without market support) and worked:
AVGO triggered long (with market support) and didn't work, worked later:
SHLD gapped over the trigger, no play.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Mark's INCY triggered long (with market support) and worked:
FB triggered long (with market support) and worked:
TSLA triggered long (with market support) and didn't really work enough for a normal partial:
Mark's CELG triggered long (without market support, but no one should have been trading either way at this point in the session with the market so flat) and didn't work:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 2 did not.