Tradesight Plus Report for 10-11-21
Opening comments posted to YouTube. Remember, Monday is a bank Holiday even though the stock market is open, so Monday should be a waste, and do NOT trade full size.
Longs only, in order of best chart construction, starting with APA > 24.48:
CDEV > 7.57:
AFRM > 146.90:
SURF > 8.38:
That's it.
Tradesight Recap Report for 10/8/21
Overview
The markets gapped up a little, sold off quickly to fill, and then went literally dead flat for the rest of the day on a weak 3.4 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A but too far out of range to take:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A but too far out of range to take:
Results: +0 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD triggered long at A, hit first target at B, stopped second half under the entry:
Results: +10 pips
Stocks:
No real market action on a Friday.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, no calls.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, Rich's NTES triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn't work:
His MRNA triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
That’s 1 trigger with market support, and it worked.
Tradesight Recap Report for 10/7/21
Overview
The markets gapped up and pushed higher for an hour, then went flat and finally drifted back down at the back end of the day on 3.7 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play:
Results: +15 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD triggered long at A and stopped:
Results: -25 pips
Stocks:
From the Tradesight Plus Report, no calls.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, Rich's FDX gapped over.
His ATVI triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn't work:
That’s 0 triggers with market support.
Tradesight Recap Report for 10/6/21
Overview
The markets gapped down, bounced a little, headed lower, and then went flat until after lunch. Then they rallied back to green on 4.4 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and short at B but too far out of range to take either:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A and short at B but too far out of range to take either:
Results: +0 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD triggered short at A, hit first target at B, still holding second half with a stop over the entry:
Results: nothing yet, trade is still going
Stocks:
From the Tradesight Plus Report, no triggers.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, Rich's COP and OIH gapped past their triggers, no plays.
Rich's HAL triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His BABA triggered long (with market support) and worked a little:
That’s 2 triggers with market support, both of them worked.
Tradesight September 2021 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results. You can see these monthly here.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
Of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So these were the results for August, which you can view here.
Tradesight Stock Results for August 2021
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 26
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 10 (38.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 4 (15.4%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 12 (46.1%)
And for September?
Tradesight Stock Results for September 2021
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 26
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 6 (23.1%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 2 (7.7%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 18 (69.2%)
September started out slow but ended up fairly solid. Our winning percentage stayed well above the 65% target, and we had some big winners along the way. No complaints.
Tradesight September 2021 Futures Results
Before we get to September's numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from August. The full report from August can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for August 2021
Number of trades: 26
Number of losers: 5
Winning percentage: 80.7%
Net ticks: +92.5
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Twitter feed exactly as we call them and manage them as well as the Opening Range plays under the basic strategy we teach for those in our course. We do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Twitter calls.
It is important to note that these results do not include the Tradesight Value Area or Institutional Range plays, all of which have been working quite well on their own.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for September 2021
Number of trades: 20
Number of losers: 3
Winning percentage: 85%
Net ticks: +252
A MASSIVE month for futures, even though we only ran 20 official trades. This was our highest winning percentage ever at 85%, and there were a couple of big ones that really made the month huge.
Tradesight September 2021 Forex Results
Before we get to the September numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from August. The full report from August can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for August 2021
Number of trades: 16
Number of losers: 11
Winning percentage: 31.25%
Worst losing streak: 4
Net pips: -60
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls wrapped up in the recap reports for the calendar month count.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for September 2021
Number of trades: 21
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 52.4%
Worst losing streak: 3
Net pips: +30
September remains slow as it usual does (August and September are the worst for Forex typically), so we remained half size. We did squeeze out minor gains but nothing that matters.
Tradesight Recap Report for 10/5/21
Overview
The markets gapped back up and basically filled the gap from the prior session on 4.1 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and stopped under the midpoint, triggered short at B and worked enough for a partial:
NQ Opening Range Play both triggers were too far out of range to take:
Results: -13 ticks
Forex, the second half of the prior day's trade stopped 70 pips in the money:
GBPUSD triggered long at A and stopped:
Results: +25 pips
Stocks:
From the Tradesight Plus Report, CDEV triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, Rich's NFLX triggered long (with market support) and worked huge:
His MMM triggered long (with market support) and worked:
That’s 3 triggers with market support, 2 of them worked and 1 didn’t.
Tradesight Recap Report for 10/4/21
Overview
The markets gapped down and pushed lower for two hours and then went dead flat on 4.5 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A but too far out of range to take:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A but too far out of range to take:
Results: +0 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD triggered long at A, hit first target at B, still holding second half with a stop under C:
Results: Trade not yet complete
Stocks:
From the Tradesight Plus Report, nothing triggered.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, Rich's UBER triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's MMM triggered long (without market support) and didn't do enough either way to count:
That’s 1 trigger with market support, and it worked.
Tradesight Plus Report for 10-4-21
Opening comments posted to YouTube on Sunday. Let's get back to work for the next two exciting months. Full size.
Longs only, in order of best chart construction, starting with SCPL > 21.74:
CDEV > 7.51:
SURF > 8.38:
