Futures Calls Recap for 7/7/14
A loser on the ES and a winner on the NQ. The markets gapped down small, did very little early, volume was light, and then we finally rolled to the downside a bit. NASDAQ volume closed at 1.5 billion shares.
Net ticks: +2 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Triggered long at A at 1974.00, didn't quite hit the first target, and stopped for 7 ticks:
NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Triggered short at A at 3906.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, lowered stop several times and finally stopped 12 ticks in the money:
Forex Calls Recap for 7/7/14
Almost hit the first target on our GBPUSD short. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, just missed the S2 first target at the low, lowered stop a few pips over the entry level and stopped at B:
Stock Picks Recap for 7/3/14
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, no calls.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, AMZN triggered long (with market support) and eventually worked a little:
In total, that's 1 trades triggering with market support, it worked.
Futures Calls Recap for 7/3/14
A half day ahead of the Fourth of July Holiday. We had one call to short the ES under UPT heading into the gap, but that didn't trigger, so no triggers for the session. NASDAQ volume was only 900 million shares. Back to work Monday.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Forex Calls Recap for 7/3/14
Wasn't using much size with all of the data that was due, but we had a small winner to close out the week ahead of tomorrow's Bank Holiday in the US. See EURUSD section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, closed second half at C for effectively the end of the week:
Tradesight June 2014 Forex Results
Before we get to June’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from May. The full report from May can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for May 2014
Number of trades: 17
Number of losers: 6
Winning percentage: 64.7%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +115 pips
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for June 2014
Number of trades: 19
Number of losers: 6
Winning percentage: 68.4%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row
Net pips: +90 pips
I didn't find the month very interesting, but we did have two or three trades that worked well enough, and our win ratio was high even though the total number of trades that triggered was small (too many nights without a trigger in narrow range). Pretty much par for the course, and it is hard to believe the July or August will be the point that things get exciting in Forex, but we will keep plugging away. I do like that even in a dull month like June (and May before it), we pulled out gains. That shows the system works and gets us set up for when the market does improve.
Tradesight June 2014 Futures Results
Before we get to June’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from May. The full report from Maycan be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for May 2014
Number of trades: 29
Number of losers: 13
Winning percentage: 55.2%
Net ticks: +12 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for June 2014
Number of trades: 20
Number of losers: 8
Winning percentage: 60%
Net ticks: +35.5 ticks
June was a much better month with several bigger winners that followed through, although there were several days that nothing triggered or things were so flat (like at the end of the month) that there were no calls to make. Still, the 6-month average daily ranges of the ES and NQ didn't change much in the month, which is to say that it had enough above average days to make it interesting. No complaints, and I continue to favor futures over Forex at the moment.
Stock Picks Recap for 7/2/14
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's NFLX triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
SINA triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Mark's AMGN triggered long (with market support) and didn't do enough either way to count:
WYNN triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 1 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 7/2/14
The ES spent the session in a 3 point range basically, so there wasn't anything to do. Thursday is a half day, so there won't be any calls there either. Back to work Monday. NASDAQ volume was 1.4 billion shares.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
Forex Calls Recap for 7/2/14
Neither of our calls triggered in the GBPUSD, and that doesn't bode well for tonight either as we head into the Fourth of July weekend. We will make calls tonight, but I would use small size with them. No calls Thursday night ahead of the US Bank Holiday.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
