Tradesight Recap Report for 9/9/21
Overview
The markets opened close to flat, surged higher, then came back to flat ahead of lunch and sold off in the afternoon on a Fed Member's comments about tapering. NASDAQ volume was 3.9 billion shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A but too far out of range to take:
Results: +13 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD triggered long at A, hit first target at B, still holding second half with a stop under R2:
Results: Trade is still going, no results yet
Stocks:
Another day that showed signed of life even if things aren't great yet.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, nothing triggered.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, Rich's COUP triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
His AMZN triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn't work:
His MRNA triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
His UPS triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
That’s 2 triggers with market support, 1 of them worked and 1 didn’t.
Tradesight Recap Report for 9/8/21
Overview
The markets gapped down a bit, filled, then plunged lower and came back to the VWAP for the second half of the day on 4 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and stopped, triggered long at B and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A but too far out of range to take:
Results: +1 tick
Forex:
GBPUSD triggered short at A and stopped:
Results: -25 pips
Stocks:
Some action finally, although some of the triggers were in the opening 5 minutes.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, nothing triggered.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, Rich's CRWD triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
His MSTR triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His DOCU triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
That’s 1 trigger with market support, and it worked.
Tradesight Recap Report for 9/7/21
Overview
The markets gapped down, pushed lower, the NASDAQ was stronger all day and filled the gap, but we closed S&P down 15 and NASDAQ up 20 on 4 billion NASDAQ shares. But the good news is that we established some range early on the first day back, which is what we need to do to get things going.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A but too far out of range to take:
Results: +8.5 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD triggered short at A, hit first target at B, stopped second half at C:
Results: +25 pips
Stocks:
At least something triggered.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, PANL triggered long (without market support) and worked:
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, AMGN triggered short (with market support) and didn't go enough either way to hit the stop or partial, closed at a loss:
Rich's NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked some:
That’s 2 triggers with market support, 1 of them worked and 1 didn’t. Neither did much. The other one did better.
Tradesight Plus Report for 9-7-21
Opening comments for the 4-day week are posted to YouTube. Summer is over. Don't expect everything to magically just be great, but hopefully we start to see signs of action here soon.
Longs only, in the order of best chart construction, starting with VRNS > 75.33:
PANL > 5.39:
Tradesight Recap Report for 9/3/21
Overview
The markets gapped down a little and then moved up a bit, went flat, and then made one more move up and closed with the S&P down 1 on 3.6 billion NASDAQ shares as everyone was cleared out for the long weekend.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and long at B, but both were too far out of range to take under the rules:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A but too far out of range to take:
Results: +0 ticks
Forex triggered long at A on the news spike and stopped. Triggered long again at B, hit first target at C, closed second half at end of chart for end of week:
We closed out the second half of the prior day's trade in the money.
GBPUSD:
Results: +35 pips
Stocks:
Not worth trading as expected.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, no calls.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, no calls.
That’s 0 triggers with market support.
Tradesight Recap Report for 9/2/21
Overview
The markets gapped up a little and held flat until late in the lunch arrow (NASDAQ was a bit weaker), then sold off for the ES to fill the gap and bounce back some late in the day on 4 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked, triggered short at B and stopped over the midpoint:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A but too far out of range to take:
Results: -9 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD triggered long at A (you might have legged into a piece earlier but it didn't stop), hit first target at B, still holding second half with a stop under R2:
Results: Trade is still going
Stocks:
Not much to bother with. One last day remaining.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, no calls.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, no regular calls, just some Seeker calls.
That’s 0 triggers with market support.
Tradesight August 2021 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results. You can see these monthly here.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
Of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So these were the results for July, which you can view here.
Tradesight Stock Results for July 2021
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 23
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 7 (30.4%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 5 (21.8%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 11 (47.8%)
And for August?
Tradesight Stock Results for August 2021
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 26
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 10 (38.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 4 (15.4%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 12 (46.1%)
Oooof, August was a sloooooowww month as it often can be. Our win ratio overall slipped a bit to just 59.5%, and the number of trades that even triggered also dropped from prior months. Still, it's August, you typically expect it, and then when you get it, you just have to hope you didn't get hurt, and these numbers won't hurt anyone. Now on to the better part of the year: September through May!
Tradesight August 2021 Futures Results
Before we get to August's numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from July. The full report from July can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for July 2021
Number of trades: 24
Number of losers: 5
Winning percentage: 79.2%
Net ticks: +132
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Twitter feed exactly as we call them and manage them as well as the Opening Range plays under the basic strategy we teach for those in our course. We do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Twitter calls.
It is important to note that these results do not include the Tradesight Value Area or Institutional Range plays, all of which have been working quite well on their own.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for August 2021
Number of trades: 26
Number of losers: 5
Winning percentage: 80.7%
Net ticks: +92.5
While Forex might have been slow for August, futures held up nicely. Our winning percentage stayed high at 80% and we had some decent-sized winners. No losing months so far this year, and now we are heading out of summer of on to the better trading months.
Tradesight August 2021 Forex Results
NOTE: There is a change starting this month in how we calculate the results for Forex. In the past, if there was a trade call on the last day of the month (let's say August 31, it would play out overnight and be in the September 1 recap, but we would count it in the August results because the call was technically made in August. Moving forward, we will now be counting that trade in September results instead of the August results just to keep the recap report dates aligned with the trading results posts.
Before we get to the August numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from July. The full report from July can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for July 2021
Number of trades: 14
Number of losers: 6
Winning percentage: 57%
Worst losing streak: 2
Net pips: +125
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls wrapped up in the recap reports for the calendar month count.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for August 2021
Number of trades: 16
Number of losers: 11
Winning percentage: 31.25%
Worst losing streak: 4
Net pips: -60
Well, we always know in Forex that if there is a month that is likely to be negative for us, it's August (or July). And so it was this year, our first negative month of the year, as the Forex markets basically stopped moving for global summer break. We only lost a net 60 pips and we dropped to half size for the whole month, which isn't reflected in the results (we just count the raw pips), but there is a reason we do that. August can just be horrible.
Tradesight Recap Report for 9/1/21
Overview
The markets opened flat, stayed flat all morning, tried to go higher over lunch and then came back to close at the lows of the day on 4 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and long at B, both stopped:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A but too far out of range to take:
Results: -36 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD triggered long at A, hit first target at B, stopped second half under the entry:
Results: +10 pips
Stocks:
Very boring day again.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, nothing triggered.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, Rich's GME triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His GDX gapped over the entry.
That’s 0 triggers with market support.