Tradesight Recap Report for 8/31/21
Overview
The markets opened slightly lower, pushed down, then came back up to fill the gap and closed there on 3.9 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A but too far out of range to take:
Results: +6 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD, no calls:
Results: +0 pips
Stocks:
Not a very interesting day.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, nothing triggered.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, several calls but only COST triggered short (with market support) and didn't work, didn't stop out at the full price either:
That’s 1 trigger with market support, and it didn't work.
Tradesight Recap Report for 8/30/21
Overview
The markets gapped up a bit, went flat for 30 minutes, pushed higher for a bit, and then went flat for 5 hours on 4 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional, closed on the VWAP:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and stopped over the ORH, triggered long at B and worked great:
NQ Opening Range Play:
Results: +1 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD triggered short at A and we closed at end of chart for end of session:
Results: -20 pips
Stocks:
The markets gapped up, did nothing for 30 minutes, then pushed up for a bit, then went flat for 5 hours on 4 billion NASDAQ shares.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, AMKR just barely gapped over, no play. Filled the gap and triggered later, worked a little, but no official call.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, ADBE triggered long (with market support) and never went enough to count, closed at the entry:
FB triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
That’s 1 trigger with market support, and it worked, nothing to count on ADBE.
Tradesight Plus Report for 8-30-21
Opening comments for the week are posted to YouTube. This is it. Summer comes to an end after Friday and next weekend's Labor Day Holiday (closed next Monday). Usually after that, markets start to pick up and getting exciting for the next eight months or so. We might have low expectations for this week, but you never know.
Longs only, in order of best chart construction, starting with AMKR > 27.71:
ON > 46.29:
SATS > 28.37:
Tradesight July 2021 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results. You can see these monthly here.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
Of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So these were the results for June, which you can view here.
Tradesight Stock Results for June 2021
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 19
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 2 (10.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 4 (21.1%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 13 (68.4%)
And for July?
Tradesight Stock Results for July 2021
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 23
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 7 (30.4%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 5 (21.8%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 11 (47.8%)
Summer continues, and July showed the full signs of it. For the first time of the year, our losing trades were 30% of the triggers (with market support). July and August are always the most likely months to either have very few trades or have losses. So far, it's nothing to complain about, but the overall activity has been so limited intraday almost every day that it makes for a challenging environment. Survive August and September is right behind it.
Tradesight July 2021 Futures Results
Before we get to July's numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from June. The full report from June can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for June 2021
Number of trades: 25
Number of losers: 5
Winning percentage: 80%
Net ticks: +126
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Twitter feed exactly as we call them and manage them as well as the Opening Range plays under the basic strategy we teach for those in our course. We do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Twitter calls.
It is important to note that these results do not include the Tradesight Value Area or Institutional Range plays, all of which have been working quite well on their own.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for July 2021
Number of trades: 24
Number of losers: 5
Winning percentage: 79.2%
Net ticks: +132
The markets definitely slowed down for the summer, and the first half of the month saw almost no net returns, which is fine. You expect a negative month or two every year, and if they happen to be July or August, it just makes sense. But then things came rallying back late in the month, including a 65 tick winner on the ES Opening Range play one day, and we ended up having a nice month, which leaves room for August to be slow if necessary before we get back to work.
Tradesight July 2021 Forex Results
Before we get to the July numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from June. The full report from June can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for June 2021
Number of trades: 22
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 54.5%
Worst losing streak: 2
Net pips: +95
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for July 2021
Number of trades: 14
Number of losers: 6
Winning percentage: 57%
Worst losing streak: 2
Net pips: +125
We always say that markets slow down over the summer, and Forex in particular, because it is a global market, slows down in July and especially August when much of the world is on a weeks' long break. This ended up being the same thing this year, so we only had 14 triggers in the month, but our win ratio still landed in the 50-60% goal range at 57%, and with that, we ended up with another month of winners. Not sure if we can pull that off again in August, but then things should start to get back to normal.
Tradesight Recap Report for 8/27/2021
Overview
The markets gapped up a little, popped higher on Powell's comments after 30 minutes, and that was about it for a summer Friday. Almost done. NASDAQ volume was 4 billion shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A and long at B, both too far out of range to take:
Results: +5 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD, closed the second half of the prior day's play:
Results: +40 pips
Stocks, not much excitement.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, no calls after the two dead days prior.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, AVGO triggered long (with market support) and worked:
That’s 1 trigger with market support, and it worked.
Tradesight Recap Report for 8/26/2021
Overview
The markets opened flat and went lower and closed at the lows of the day on 3.5 billion NASDAQ shares, the worst in a while.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and sort at B, both stopped for small losses, it was a tiny OR:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A and short at B, neither were in range to take:
Results: -28 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD:
Results: No results as the trade is not finished.
Stocks:
Not much on a dead day.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, no calls.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, Rich's DKS triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
That’s 1 trigger with market support, and it didn't work.
Tradesight Recap Report for 8/25/2021
Overview
The markets opened close to flat, did nothing all day (NASDAQ was weak, S&P held up) and close slightly green on 3.6 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and eventually worked:
NQ Opening Range Play:
Results: +6 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD triggered short at A and stopped:
Results: -25 pips
Stocks:
From the Tradesight Plus Report, no calls.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, Rich's NVDA triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
His BILI triggered long (with market support) and worked:
That’s 1 trigger with market support, and it worked.
Tradesight Recap Report for 8/24/2021
Overview
A completely flat day in the markets that closed right where we opened on just 3.6 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels, a crazy day when we basically only see one level:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and stopped over the midpoint, triggered long at B and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play, both triggers were too far out of range to take:
Results: -5.5 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD:
Results: +0 pips
Stocks:
A dead day in the markets but a couple of triggers at least..
From the Tradesight Plus Report, DLTR triggered long (without market support) and worked:
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, Rich's LVS triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His FB triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
That’s 2 triggers with market support, 1 of them worked and 1 didn’t.