Tradesight Recap Report for 8/23/2021
Overview
The markets gapped up, went higher for the first two hours, then went flat for the rest of the day on 3.9 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A but too far out of range to take:
Results: +13 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD:
Results: +0 pips
Stocks:
Not a very interesting day again.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, NVDA gapped over, no play.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, several calls, nothing triggered.
That’s 0 triggers with market support.
Tradesight Plus Report for 8-23-21
I ran every scan I could, and frankly, very little came up. There were more long ideas than shorts, but most of it was junk.
Opening comments posted to YouTube. Two weeks until Labor Day and the official end of summer.
Longs only, in the order of best chart construction, starting with NVDA > 208.75:
WAFD > 33.89:
DLTR > 103.85:
Tradesight June 2021 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results. You can see these monthly here.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
Of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So these were the results for May, which you can view here.
Tradesight Stock Results for May 2021
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 31
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 9 (29%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 7 (22.6%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 15 (48.4%)
And for June?
Tradesight Stock Results for June 2021
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 19
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 2 (10.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 4 (21.1%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 13 (68.4%)
What a big change in the stock market as we enter summer. Our number of triggered trades dropped significantly from 31 to only 19. The good news is that only 2 trades were losers. The bad news is that there wasn't much to do and only about 4 trades that really saw big gains. Six green months to start the year, but this does not bode well for summer.
Tradesight June 2021 Futures Results
Before we get to April's numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from May. The full report from May can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for May 2021
Number of trades: 23
Number of losers: 5
Winning percentage: 78.3%
Net ticks: +85
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Twitter feed exactly as we call them and manage them as well as the Opening Range plays under the basic strategy we teach for those in our course. We do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Twitter calls.
It is important to note that these results do not include the Tradesight Value Area or Institutional Range plays, all of which have been working quite well on their own.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for June 2021
Number of trades: 25
Number of losers: 5
Winning percentage: 80%
Net ticks: +126
A big month of trading for futures in June, even if we only officially called the Opening Range plays the whole month. We went the first two weeks without a loss and the gains racked up quickly. The second half of the month reflected a slow down in the markets, but we wrap the first half of the year with six green months of futures trading.
Tradesight June 2021 Forex Results
Before we get to the June numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from May. The full report from May can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for May 2021
Number of trades: 9
Number of losers: 4
Winning percentage: 55.5%
Worst losing streak: 2
Net pips: +65
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for June 2021
Number of trades: 22
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 54.5%
Worst losing streak: 2
Net pips: +95
June started out extremely slow, but we finally had a couple of big winners in the third week, and that gave us an improved gain over May. We also had more than twice as many trades this month. That could change heading into the two key summer months.
Tradesight Recap Report for 8/20/21
Overview
Pretty much options expiration in August. Markets opened flat, pushed up, and then died for the rest of the day on 3.8 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A but too far out of range to take:
Results: +11.5 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD triggered short at A under S1 and stopped:
Results: -25 pips
Stocks:
Boring for stock expiration Friday.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, nothing.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, Rich's BABA triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
That’s 1 trigger with market support, and it didn't work.
Tradesight Recap Report for 8/19/21
Overview
The markets opened slightly lower and pushed up a bit but mostly closed flat on 3.8 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play:
Results: +4.5 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD, no calls due to tight levels spacing:
Results: +0 pips
Stocks:
A bit better than yesterday.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, no calls.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, Rich's NFLX triggered long (with market support) and worked, he stated in the Lab to take it over the opening 5 minute high:
That’s 1 trigger with market support and it worked.
Tradesight Recap Report for 8/18/21
Overview
The markets opened close to flat, moved up a little early, then went completely dead flat until after lunch when the Fed minutes came out. Then we shook higher and lower and stabilized where we had been before finally selling off a bit in the last hour on 3.8 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play:
Results: +6 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD triggered long at A and closed for a 5 pip loss. Prior day's trade closed in the money:
Results: +35 pips
Stocks:
Not much excitement. Hope Monday wasn't the only big day of the week.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, no calls.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, GS triggered short (with market support, but in the last 10 minutes of the day):
That’s 1 trigger with market support, and it closed slightly green but should not count.
Tradesight Recap Report for 8/17/21
Overview
The markets gapped down, stayed flat for two hours, then dipped and came back late to inside the opening 5 minute candle on 4.1 billion NASDAQ shares.
ES with Levels:
ES with Market Directional:
Futures:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked enough for a partial, triggered short at B, technically 2 ticks too far out of range to take, but if you did, it would have worked enough for a partial:
NQ Opening Range Play:
Results: +4 ticks
Forex:
GBPUSD triggered short at A, hit first target at B, still holding second half with a stop over C (would be 65 pip gain):
Results: None yet, trade is still open
Stocks:
Not quite as great as Monday because the start was slow.
From the Tradesight Plus Report, no calls.
From the Tradesight Plus Twitter feed, NVDA triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
BIDU triggered long (with market support) and didn't quite work enough for a partial:
That’s 2 triggers with market support, none of them worke.
Tradesight May 2021 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results. You can see these monthly here.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
Of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So these were the results for April, which you can view here.
Tradesight Stock Results for April 2021
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 34
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 9 (26.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 11 (32.3%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 14 (41.2%)
And for May?
Tradesight Stock Results for May 2021
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 31
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 9 (29%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 7 (22.6%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 15 (48.4%)
May was close to a mimic of April. Almost the same number of trades, almost the same loss ratio (within 3%). It felt less interesting, but it still worked a bit as we head into summer months.