Forex Calls Recap for 12/22/16
We closed out the second half of the prior day's EURUSD at 1.0430 or so and had a new trade in the GBPUSD that barely stopped out. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and just barely stopped at B:
Tradesight November 2016 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results. You can see these monthly here.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
Of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So these were the results for October, which you can view here.
Tradesight Stock Results for October 2016
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 82
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 36 (43.9%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 20 (24.4%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 26 (31.7%)
And for November?
Tradesight Stock Results for November 2016
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 74
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 17 (23.0%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 33 (44.6%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 24 (32.4%)
November is sort of a short month because you lose really three days in the week of Thanksgiving, plus you have Veteran's Day, which is basically untradeable. Because of that, we had less trades trigger than the month before. However, our winning percentages overall went back to what they were most of the year, with about 76% of the trades being some form of winner. Hard to complain. December is a mixed bag usually, but January and on is typically great, so let's see what 2017 brings!
Stock Picks Recap for 12/21/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's GS triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
His ALXN triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
VRX triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's TWLO triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 12/21/16
The markets opened flat and did nothing all day on 1.3 billion NASDAQ shares. Christmas doldrums are here, so probably no more calls this year. Trade cautiously if at all, even on the Opening Range plays.
Net ticks: -25 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and didn't work, triggered short at B and I closed it even after it was clear that the market was just dead:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A and didn't work, triggered short at B and I closed it even after it was clear that the market was just dead:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
Forex Calls Recap for 12/21/16
What a clean setup that worked perfectly on the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, still holding second half with a stop under R1:
Stock Picks Recap for 12/20/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's FSLR triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
His NVDA triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
His FB triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 1 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 12/20/16
Not a better day in terms of action or volume, so this might be it for the year. We will give it one more day. Opening range plays worked, but the markets gapped up and closed where they opened on 1.5 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: +15.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
Forex Calls Recap for 12/20/16
Another winner for the session. See GBPUSD section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and stopped second half at C:
Stock Picks Recap for 12/19/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, BECN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
FISV triggered long (with market support), didn't work quite enough for a partial, although I closed it for a small winner, under the normal rules it would be a loser:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, no other calls triggered on a boring day.
In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 1 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 12/19/16
The markets were dead on 1.5 billion NASDAQ shares as expected to start the new options quarter. Whether we get some excitement Tuesday or not will determine if we make many more calls for the next 7 trading days to wrap up 2016.
Net ticks: -28 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and didn't work, and the long at B was too far outside of the OR according to the rules to take:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A and didn't work, and the long at B actually was valid but I said not to take it, mostly because of the ES, so that was my bad as that worked:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
