Futures Calls Recap for 11/8/16
The markets gapped down a little and were dead flat on light volume for the first hour, then drifted up to fill the gap ahead of lunch, topped out exactly on a Comber 13 sell signal over lunch, and then came back to the VWAP on 1.6 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: -18 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and hit a partial, triggered long at B and stopped:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A and stopped, triggered long at B and stopped:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
My call triggered short at A at 2137.00, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped second half over 2133.00:
Forex Calls Recap for 11/8/16
Boring night of back and forth. Stopped out both ways on the GBPUSD.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped:
Stock Picks Recap for 11/7/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's TLT triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:
Rich's AAPL triggered short (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
CELG triggered long (with market support) and worked:
GS triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, all 3 of them worked.
Futures Calls Recap for 11/7/16
The markets gapped up big on the news that the FBI was (still) not going to press charges against Clinton. We continued a bit higher and hit the key 2125.00 ES tri-star level and sat there for hours on 1.6 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: -17 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and stopped, triggered long at B and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A and stopped, triggered long at B and worked:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
Forex Calls Recap for 11/7/16
We didn't post any calls because the Levels spacing was not great, and then the markets gapped a bit on the open, and I think it was just the right thing to do. No calls, nothing would have worked.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Tradesight October 2016 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results. You can see these monthly here.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
Of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So these were the results for September, which you can view here.
Tradesight Stock Results for September 2016
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 74
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 23 (31.1%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 21 (28.4%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 30 (40.5%)
And for October?
Tradesight Stock Results for October 2016
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 82
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 36 (43.9%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 20 (24.4%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 26 (31.7%)
October is traditionally a wild month in the markets, but it was not in 2016. In fact, one of the weeks was the lightest of the year. We had many days where triggers didn't go far enough after hours to count as a winner or loser. This is just very unusual. Although we still had plenty of big winners, I would personally think that most people would only have put together a mildly green month in October. 43.9% losing trades is our worst of the year by far. Still, it shows that the system works when you can have your worst month and only 43.9% losers in the slowest month of the year. Hopefully, things pick up soon.
Tradesight October 2016 Futures Results
Before we get to October’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from September. The full report from September can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for September 2016
Number of trades: 62
Number of losers: 29
Winning percentage: 53.2%
Net ticks: -12 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Twitter feed exactly as we call them and manage them as well as the Opening Range plays under the basic strategy we teach for those in our course. We do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Twitter calls.
It is important to note that these results do not include the Tradesight Value Area or Institutional Range plays, all of which have been working quite well on their own.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for October 2016
Number of trades: 55
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 74.5%
Net ticks: +134.5 ticks
We were looking for a pick-up in volume in the markets, and October didn't really give it to us. In fact, we had the lightest volume week of the year in the third week of the month. Typically, as with September, this would not lead to great futures results. However, even though there wasn't enough action to justify making a lot of additional calls, the Opening Range plays worked great again, so we were able to mount another solid month. With just two left, it's hard to imagine this being anything but a banner year in the end for our futures traders, but we'd sure like to close out on a high note with better action and volume. Hopefully, we get it after the Election.
Tradesight October 2016 Forex Results
Before we get to October’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from September. The full report from September can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for September 2016
Number of trades: 24
Number of losers: 15
Winning percentage: 37.5%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row
Net pips: -60 pips
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for October 2016
Number of trades: 21
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 52.4%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +80 pips
The Forex markets did not pick up at all in October. In fact, we had more days where nothing triggered than we had seen in a while, leading to less total main call triggers than any other month this year. We didn't have any significant winners that carried over for several days because the pairs didn't really make those moves. In the end, a slightly positive month because our system is very controlled, and we hope that things do finally pick up soon so we can get back to full size.
Stock Picks Recap for 11/4/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's MNST triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Mark's GPRO triggered long (without market support) and worked:
Rich's WDC triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 1 trade triggering with market support, and it worked.
Futures Calls Recap for 11/4/16
The markets opened fairly flat, dipped for about 20, and then turned up, making the highs of the day over lunch and then drifting back to the VWAP on 1.8 billion NASDAQ shares. Opening Range Plays worked, see that section below.
Net ticks: +4.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and I posted a close at 2083.50 instead of waiting for the full stop out because the markets had stalled at the NQ gap fill:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked great:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
