Forex Calls Recap for 11/4/16
A decent winner to close out the week. See GBPUSD section below. Not much reaction to the big data points.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, closed second half at C for end of week:
Stock Picks Recap for 11/3/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ZUMZ gapped over, no play.
YNDX triggered short (with market support) and didn't go enough either way to count, probably should have just treated it like a sweep:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's AAPL triggered long (with market support) and didn't quite go enough for a partial:
His BABA triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His NFLX triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
PYPL triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's FSLR triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
MYGN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 3 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 11/3/16
The markets opened fairly flat and were dead again for the first two hours, then dipped over lunch, and then finally drifted a little lower in the last hour on 1.9 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked enough for a partial, triggered short at B and stopped:
NQ Opening Range Play, the long at A was 10 ticks above the ORH, which is more than you are supposed to take for entry under the rules. Short triggered at B and worked enough for a partial:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
My call triggered short at A at 2085.25 and stopped:
Forex Calls Recap for 11/3/16
A nice winner finally in the GBPUSD. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, kept going and raised stop in the morning and stopped at C for 125 pips:
Tradesight September 2016 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results. You can see these monthly here.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
Of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So these were the results for August, which you can view here.
Tradesight Stock Results for August 2016
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 63
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 15 (23.8%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 22 (34.9%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 26 (41.3%)
And for September?
Tradesight Stock Results for September 2016
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 74
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 23 (31.1%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 21 (28.4%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 30 (40.5%)
The markets actually slowed down more in September, which is unusual. Volume got worse and worse. However, our numbers basically held close to where we like them, and there were several days where we had some huge winners that were easy to capture. Still, it would be nice to have a more interesting market. Unfortunately, I'm posting this late, so I can already tell you that October wasn't much better.
Stock Picks Recap for 11/3/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, MDRX triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn't work:
TSLA triggered short (with market support, although you generally don't want to trade in the 30 minutes after the Fed) and didn't work:
ADBE triggered short (with market support, ahead of the Fed) and didn't go enough in either direction to count, closed near the trigger:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, GILD triggered short (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 1 trade triggering with market support, it didn't work.
Futures Calls Recap for 11/3/16
A slow morning, then we dipped over lunch, then there wasn't much reaction to the Fed on 1.9 billion NASDAQ shares, much of which was in BRCD. Most of the pairs barely touched a level. Opening Range plays worked.
Net ticks: +9 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked enough for a partial:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked enough for a partial:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
Forex Calls Recap for 11/3/16
Markets didn't do a ton again, and no reaction to the Fed. We had a winner, see EURUSD below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, stopped second half later at same price at C:
Stock Picks Recap for 11/1/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, GPRO triggered short (with market support) and worked:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:
COST triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's OIH triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked great:
His WYNN triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
His VXX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:
His CMI triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, all 6 of them worked.
Futures Calls Recap for 11/1/16
The markets opened fairly flat and headed down for the session, although the first two hours were fairly narrow on poor volume, but things picked up speed over lunch. NASDAQ volume was 1.6 billion in the end, but the first two hours were horrible. Opening Range plays worked great.
Net ticks: +20 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
