Stock Picks Recap for 9/6/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, SWKS triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's LVS triggered long (with market support) and didn't work enough in either direction to count:
Futures Calls Recap for 9/6/16
A boring start to the week in futures as the markets were dead and bifurcated early despite improved volume which closed at 1.6 billion NASDAQ shares. See Opening Range Plays and ES sections below. Better volume should get things going again soon.
Net ticks: -15 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and eventually worked enough for a partial:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B but we don't take that under the rules because we are short the ES and it isn't into the gap:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
My call triggered short at A at 2179.50 and stopped for 7 ticks. I did not put it back in although that would have worked nicely:
Forex Calls Recap for 9/6/16
A nice winner in the GBPUSD to start the week. Still holding the second half. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, still holding second half with a stop under R2 at C:
Tradesight August 2016 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results. You can see these monthly here.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
Of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So these were the results for July, which you can view here.
Tradesight Stock Results for July 2016
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 63
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 20 (31.7%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 18 (28.6%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 25 (39.7%)
And for August?
Tradesight Stock Results for August 2016
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 63
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 15 (23.8%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 22 (34.9%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 26 (41.3%)
Surprisingly, even with the light volume in the markets, we had the same number of stocks trigger from our calls with market support as we did in July. The overall win ratio was higher, and for the first half of August in particular, we had some really nice winners anyway. It was the last two weeks where everything seemed to slow down even more, a complete reversal from August 2015. Either way, things should start to pick up post Labor Day.
Tradesight August 2016 Futures Results
Before we get to August’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from July. The full report from July can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for July 2016
Number of trades: 58
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 72.4%
Net ticks: +222.5 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Twitter feed exactly as we call them and manage them as well as the Opening Range plays under the basic strategy we teach for those in our course. We do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Twitter calls.
It is important to note that these results do not include the Tradesight Value Area or Institutional Range plays, all of which have been working quite well on their own.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for August 2016
Number of trades: 66
Number of losers: 25
Winning percentage: 62.1%
Net ticks: +119 ticks
It was unlikely that we were going to rack up the same gains in August that we did in July, given the fact that market volume tends to dry up at least for the early half of August. Sometimes, it picks up again after options expiration Friday, like it did last year. This year, it did not pick up. Not much else to say. Our win rate, including on the Opening Range plays, dropped a bit from prior months due to the lack of market action, but we still did well. Things should pick up after Labor Day.
Tradesight August 2016 Forex Results
Before we get to August’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from July. The full report from July can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for July 2016
Number of trades: 25
Number of losers: 13
Winning percentage: 48.0%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row
Net pips: +180 pips
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for August 2016
Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 50%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row
Net pips: +95 pips
Usually, you can bank on August to be the slowest month of the year for Forex. This is because a lot of Europe, along with the US, are on vacation. We dropped to half size as usual after a great July, and we still managed to pull out net gains for the month. Sometimes, August ends up being one of the few negative months of the year, and that's acceptable, although last August was certainly more interesting, so you still have to step up and try. No complaints net with 95 pips of gains. It isn't that interesting, but it could be worse given the ranges. At some point after Labor Day, activity will start to pick up, and then we will go back to full size.
Stock Picks Recap for 9/2/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
No calls that triggered for the Friday before Labor Day.
Futures Calls Recap for 9/2/16
Another dull session as predicted. Shouldn't have bothered showing up. Even with a news gap, we couldn't get any energy going early on with all of the big players out. Volume ended at 1.2 billion NASDAQ shares. Have a great long weekend! Summer is finally over, and now we keep an eye on volume and start to get back to work.
Net ticks: -34 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and stopped, triggered long at B and closed even at C:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered short at A and stopped, triggered long at B and closed even at C:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
Forex Calls Recap for 9/2/16
A little bit of movement for the session, but I was trading minimal size with the expected spike (one way or the other) on the news. We did trigger a trade after that which would have been safer to take for more size, and it worked, but at the end of the day, this is the Friday leading into Labor Day.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, hit first target, second half stopped under entry. Triggered short at C, never got to first target, closed at D for end of week:
Stock Picks Recap for 9/1/16
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, BEAV triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, VRX triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
GILD triggered short (with market support) and worked:
