Forex Calls Recap for 1/3/19
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, still holding second half with a stop under UBreak:
Tradesight December 2018 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results. You can see these monthly here.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
Of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So these were the results for November, which you can view here.
Tradesight Stock Results for November 2018
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 56
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 6 (10.6%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 17 (30.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 33 (58.9%)
And for December?
Tradesight Stock Results for December 2018
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 33
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 7 (21.2%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 13 (39.4%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 13 (39.4%)
This is not a surprise, but the number of trades dropped in December with the last two weeks of the year being slowed by the Holidays. Still, our win ratio was almost 80%, and that is nothing to complain about. Back to normal in 2019!
Tradesight December 2018 Futures Results
Before we get to December’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from November. The full report from November can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for November 2018
Number of trades: 38
Number of losers: 7
Winning percentage: 81.6%
Net ticks: +90.5 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Twitter feed exactly as we call them and manage them as well as the Opening Range plays under the basic strategy we teach for those in our course. We do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Twitter calls.
It is important to note that these results do not include the Tradesight Value Area or Institutional Range plays, all of which have been working quite well on their own.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for December 2018
Number of trades: 36
Number of losers: 6
Winning percentage: 83.3%
Net ticks: +140.5 ticks
A great end to the year, even though we had a lot of Holidays and sessions where the ranges were too wide to take the OR plays. Remember, we are not counting anything but official calls and OR plays, which leaves a lot more trade setups that we teach. We will try to figure out a way to track those in 2019. Happy New Year!
Tradesight December 2018 Forex Results
Before we get to December’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from November. The full report from November can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for November 2018
Number of trades: 15
Number of losers: 8
Winning percentage: 46.7%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row
Net pips: +110 pips
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call
made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part
of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered
between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia)
and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else
is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that
one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final
exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60
on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half,
never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip
loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded
down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip
losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it
should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I
count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am
EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are
awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting
things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the
implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right
on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you
shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for December 2018
Number of trades: 13
Number of losers: 4
Winning percentage: 69.2%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row
Net pips: +180 pips
Holidays, days without triggers because the ranges were so narrow, and stuff like that led to a light month of trading for Forex, but a decently profitable one at 180 pips of gains just off the simple main calls. We will recap the year soon, but as usual, our Forex system is simple and just works, and doesn't even count everything else you can do with the stuff we teach in the program. Here's to a good 2019.
Tradesight November 2018 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post
the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and
Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn
that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results
monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks
calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a
fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in
trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the
right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in
advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to
get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in
stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the
liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I
have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I
would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain
amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain
percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a
big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get
in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even
though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results. You can see these monthly here.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four
categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to
have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for
20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if
you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
Of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow
any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a
worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a
scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant
loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you
have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be
making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades
as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically
would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners,
and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a
trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level
of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to
make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under
the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money,
but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are
anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So these were the results for October, which you can view here.
Tradesight Stock Results for October 2018
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 66
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 11 (16.7%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 19 (28.8%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 36 (54.5%)
And for November?
Tradesight Stock Results for November 2018
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 56
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 6 (10.6%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 17 (30.5%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 33 (58.9%)
This was a pretty stunning November. Plenty of trades, plenty of big winners, but of course, a few less trades than normal because of the Thanksgiving Holiday. The win ratio on trades with market direction was almost 90%, which is just awesome and a great way to head into the Holidays.
Tradesight November 2018 Futures Results
Before we get to November’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from October. The full report from October can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for October 2018
Number of trades: 47
Number of losers: 18
Winning percentage: 61.7%
Net ticks: +19.5 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Twitter feed exactly as we
call them and manage them as well as the Opening Range plays under the
basic strategy we teach for those in our course. We do not count
everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our
tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that
one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final
exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12
on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Twitter calls.
It is important to note that these results do not include the
Tradesight Value Area or Institutional Range plays, all of which have
been working quite well on their own.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for November 2018
Number of trades: 38
Number of losers: 7
Winning percentage: 81.6%
Net ticks: +90.5 ticks
Quite the amazing month. Less trades than usual, and we had some Holiday time for Thanksgiving, but we won over 80% of the trades, which is unusual and solid. Nice results overall.
Tradesight November 2018 Forex Results
Before we get to November’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from October. The full report from October can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for October 2018
Number of trades: 20
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 50%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row
Net pips: +95 pips
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia)
and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else
is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that
one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final
exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60
on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half,
never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip
loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded
down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip
losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it
should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I
count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am
EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are
awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting
things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the
implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right
on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you
shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for November 2018
Number of trades: 15
Number of losers: 8
Winning percentage: 46.7%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row
Net pips: +110 pips
November typically has less trades due to the Thanksgiving Holiday, but this was really light as the US Dollar Index has been so flat. Still, a green month, so no complaints.
Stock Picks Recap for 1/2/19
With each stock's recap,
we will include a (with market support) or (without market support)
tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market
directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will
be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be
determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are
thus either winners or losers.
From the report, no calls.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, TTWO triggered long (with market support) and worked:
NFLX triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's QCOM triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His NVDA triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, all of them worked.
Futures Calls Recap for 1/2/19
The markets gapped down,
took an hour and a half to fill, then played both ways before closing
close to even on 2.3 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our
market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from
today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A but too much risk to take:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A but too much risk to take:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
Forex Calls Recap for 1/2/19
Always good to start the year with a winner, and it's still going. See GBPUSD section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, still holding second half:
