Stock Picks Recap for 5/19/14
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, PDLI triggered long (with market support by a penny) and didn't work:
LRCX triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Mark's SNDK triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
GILD triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
NTAP triggered long (with market support) and worked:
TSLA triggered long (with market support) and didn't work (we tried again in the afternoon breakout and closed around even):
Rich's FFIV triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 7 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 2 did not. It was a day where everything barely made it to a partial, except NTAP and FFIV, which worked great.
Futures Calls Recap for 5/19/14
A nice setup out of the gate when the ES gapped down and set the Pivot as the high of the first 2 minutes, then broke through that line and filled the gap for a nice winner. See that section below. There were also some nice setups on the ER today per our teachings.
Net ticks: +11 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Triggered long at A at 1871.00, hit first target for 6 ticks, raised stop twice and then closed at the key 1875.00 level, which was also the gap fill (NOTE: the data on this chart is showing wrong. At the time, the ES opened below the Pivot):
Forex Calls Recap for 5/19/14
Nothing triggered as the EURUSD stuck in a 30 pip range and the GBPUSD stuck in a 40 pip range to start the week. I'm showing all of the charts below anyway as usual. Ranges were so bad, we didn't even get a Comber count on any one of the ten pairs.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Stock Picks Recap for 5/16/14
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, ETFC triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's WWE triggered long (without market support) and ultimately worked (not with the usual stop, but Rich discussed it in detail in the Lab):
His RAX triggered short (with market support) and worked:
FSLR triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Mark's MAC triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 5/16/14
A flat session as expected to close out the options cycle, but we were looking for a move back to the key 1875 level, so I made a call anyway over the Pivot to get there. See ES below.
Net ticks: +5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Triggered long at A at 1869.50 and stopped. Retriggered after lunch at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, and closed the final piece at 1874:
Forex Calls Recap for 5/16/14
Another dull session with a dead flat trade. See GBPUSD section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index. Not much to see.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A and never got to the first target, closed at B at the entry for end of week:
Stock Picks Recap for 5/14/14
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SBAC triggered long (without market support by about two ticks) and worked:
PDLI triggered long (with market support) and worked:
SWIR triggered short (with market support) but we closed it around the entry when market direction shifted all the way:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, FSLR triggered short (with market support in the afternoon) and worked enough for a partial:
Rich's FOSL triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
NFLX triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's GLD triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked enough for a partial:
GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 1 did not. A lot of that was slow working due the market and you had to be patient.
Futures Calls Recap for 5/14/14
What might have been an exciting trading session for options unraveling turned into a horribly narrow session until the last hour. The ES was trapped in a mostly 3 point range for hours, although it had a nice long side trade setup that didn't trigger. Meanwhile, the ER gave us two entries in short order that both worked enough for partials. See that section below. NASDAQ volume closed at only 1.6 billion shares.
Net ticks: +11.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ER:
Triggered short at A at 1109.80, hit first target for 8 ticks, and then snapped back quickly and stopped second half over the entry. Then we triggered long at B at 1113.10, hit first target for 8 ticks, raised the stop twice, and stopped at the same number as the partial:
Tradesight April 2014 Forex Results
Before we get to April’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from March. The full report from March can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for March 2014
Number of trades: 21
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 52.4%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row
Net pips: -125 pips
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for April 2014
Number of trades: 18
Number of losers: 7
Winning percentage: 61.1%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +70 pips
I’ve been waiting for this to happen. Action and range in the Forex markets has been poor since August, but we managed to keep trucking along racking up gains most of those months. Typically, if you are going to have a losing month in Forex, it should be when ranges are bad, and I usually expect one or two of those a year. This was certainly it as the action was the narrowest yet. Before we discuss the ranges on the major pairs, let’s look at the results. First, less trades triggered than we’ve seen in a while as the market didn’t move. Our win ratio wasn’t horrible, but here’s the striking statistic. Not a SINGLE trade followed through beyond the first target. That’s extremely unusual and represents a dead market. In fact, at that point, you should be happy on days when nothing even triggers, which, we had a few of those. In terms of ranges, the EURUSD and GBPUSD spent over half of the days of the month in a 60 pip or less range, less than half of the statistical norm. Our system is designed to prevent us from getting beat up badly in narrow markets, and this month may have been the single worst that I’ve seen in ten years of trading. Let’s hope it comes to an end soon and gets moving again.
Tradesight April 2014 Futures Results
Before we get to April’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from March. The full report from March can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for March 2014
Number of trades: 27
Number of losers: 25
Winning percentage: 48.1%
Net ticks: +31 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for April 2014
Number of trades: 35
Number of losers: 19
Winning percentage: 54.3%
Net ticks: -28.5 ticks
A very interesting month for futures. Things were much improved as volume returned to the market. Our only negative week was the week of options expiration, which was the only week where volume dropped down, averaging only 1.7 billion shares a day on the NASDAQ. Beyond that, remember that the results above include partials of just 6 ticks averaged into the numbers. It was a solid month, and on top of these main calls, there were plenty of setups and several Comber signals. Our win/loss ratio was actually a little lower than normal, which is interesting, but with market volume up, we had several trades that moved nicely and gave us solid gains. I continue to inch my size back up in futures as volume is holding in the markets better than 2013.