Stock Picks Recap for 4/9/14
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. You can still take those calls for less size if interested. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers. Stocks under $80 are considered to have a $0.25 stop, stocks over $80 but under $200 are considered to have a $0.50 stop, stocks from $200 to $00 are considered to have a $1.00 stop, and anything higher is $2.00 stops.
From the report, APOL triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's PCLN triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
FSLR triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
COST triggered long (with market support) and worked:
TSLA triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not. Lots of other calls, nothing else triggered.
Futures Calls Recap for 4/9/14
With poor volume comes lack of action. Our first target missed the first target (and gap fill) by a tick. Another didn't break the trigger (hit it exactly). Another triggered and stopped once, then worked a little later. The market didn't really do anything until the minutes of the last Fed meeting were released in the afternoon, and this was one of the slowest sessions of the year overall minus the news move. NASDAQ volume closed at 1.8 billion shares.
Net ticks: -11.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Mark's short triggered at A at 1847.00 and stopped for 7 ticks. He posted not to re-enter. My long triggered at B at 1852.50 and stopped. Triggered again at C, hit first target for 6 ticks, and second half stopped under the entry:
Forex Calls Recap for 4/9/14
A boring session again until the Fed released the minutes from their last meeting long after we were done. See GBPUSD section below. We are still long the trade from the prior session in the money on the GBPUSD.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, stopped at B if you held it that long that late in the day, right before it spiked on the Fed minutes:
Stock Picks Recap for 4/8/14
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked for 5 points or so:
AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
GILD triggered short (without market support) and worked:
Rich's BIDU triggered long (with market support) and worked:
TWTR triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
NTES triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's LNKD triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His SYNA triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Rich's AAPL reversal triggered short (without market support) and worked:
His CMG triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 2 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 4/8/14
A winner, a 1-minute sweep loss, and a winner on the second try of that trade, adds up to some gains. Also, amazing how the high of the session on the ES was the UPT/VAH exactly. See ES and NQ sections below. The market was back and forth today in a much narrower range than the last few sessions on 2 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: +4.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:Triggered short at A at 1834.25, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped second half over the entry:
NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Triggered long at A at 3521.50 and swept immediately, didn't even close a 1-minute bar over the trigger, so we go right back in. Triggered just after that, hit first target for 6 ticks, raised stop twice and stopped 12 ticks in the money:
Forex Calls Recap for 4/8/14
A nice big winner finally after a clean trigger, and the trade is still going, currently over 100 pips in the money. See GBPUSD section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, kept going nicely and still holding over 100 pips in the money with a stop under R3:
Stock Picks Recap for 4/7/14
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, OSTK triggered short (with market support) and didn't work, also ended up being super-thin:
CALD also triggered short very thin (with market support) and didn't work:
ACXM triggered short (with market support) and worked:
DXCM triggered short (with market support) and worked:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's YELP triggered long (without market support) and worked:
His WYNN triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His XONE triggered short (with market support) and worked:
NTES triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's CAT triggered short (with market support) and worked:
TSLA triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 10 trades triggering with market support, 7 of them worked, 3 did not. Two of the trades ended up being too thin to do much with.
Futures Calls Recap for 4/7/14
Two nice setups for the Value Areas on the ES and NQ. One worked enough to fill the gap (NQ) and one didn't (ES). See both sections below. The markets sold off hard again and traded 2.4 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: +1 tick.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Triggered long at A at 1857.00 and stopped. Put it back in but it didn't trigger again:
NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Triggered long at A at 3523.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, raised stop twice and stopped at 3528.50:
Forex Calls Recap for 4/7/14
A small winner to start the week on the EURUSD. Closed it out because it didn't hit the stop or first target by end of session. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, didn't hit first target or stop, closed at B for end of session:
Tradesight March 2014 Forex Results
Before we get to March’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from February. The full report from February can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for February 2014
Number of trades: 22
Number of losers: 8
Winning percentage: 63.6%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +50 pips
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for March 2014
Number of trades: 21
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 52.4%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row
Net pips: -125 pips
I've been waiting for this to happen. Action and range in the Forex markets has been poor since August, but we managed to keep trucking along racking up gains most of those months. Typically, if you are going to have a losing month in Forex, it should be when ranges are bad, and I usually expect one or two of those a year. This was certainly it as the action was the narrowest yet. Before we discuss the ranges on the major pairs, let's look at the results. First, less trades triggered than we've seen in a while as the market didn't move. Our win ratio wasn't horrible, but here's the striking statistic. Not a SINGLE trade followed through beyond the first target. That's extremely unusual and represents a dead market. In fact, at that point, you should be happy on days when nothing even triggers, which, we had a few of those. In terms of ranges, the EURUSD and GBPUSD spent over half of the days of the month in a 60 pip or less range, less than half of the statistical norm. Our system is designed to prevent us from getting beat up badly in narrow markets, and this month may have been the single worst that I've seen in ten years of trading. Let's hope it comes to an end soon and gets moving again.