Tradesight October 2013 Forex Results
Before we get to October’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from September. The full report from September can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for September 2013
Number of trades: 22
Number of losers: 8
Winning percentage: 63.6%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +175
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for October 2013
Number of trades: 24
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 58.3%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +275
We remain half size in our Forex trading as the ranges have not returned since the end of summer. Currently, the US government shutdown is making the situation worse, and there is no reason to return to full size until that ends and the ranges expand. The EURUSD and GBPUSD both saw their 6-month average daily ranges drop about 4-5 pips during the month. Overall, we still did well. We had less trades trigger than usual. There was a Holiday to start the month, but there were also days with no trades that triggered. Our win ratio was solid at 63.6, and there were a few plays that led to bigger winners. Overall, nothing to complain about considering the environment.
Tradesight October 2013 Futures Results
Before we get to October’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from September. The full report from September can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for September 2013
Number of trades: 24
Number of losers: 8
Winning percentage: 67.7%
Net ticks: +67.5 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for October 2013
Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 64.3%
Net ticks: +12.5 ticks
A much slower month for futures, although most of it was at least moving forward until a string of 4 stop outs in a row late in the month cost us 28 ticks. There were several sessions where nothing triggered due to light action during the Federal shutdown. I'm still not in love with the futures action, but market volume has been getting better, so we may finally be getting back to the point that futures trading picks up and we start to do 40-50 trades a month again. Average ranges for the month dropped a bit. We didn't see too many trades follow through, and that's why we only had minor gains despite a solid win ratio.
Stock Picks Recap for 11/1/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SPNC triggered long (without market support) and didn't do enough in either direction to count:
SIRO triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn't work:
BLMN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's TQQQ triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:
His TSLA triggered long (with market support) and worked:
COST triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, all 4 of them worked.
Stock Picks Recap for 11/1/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SPNC triggered long (without market support) and didn't do enough in either direction to count:
SIRO triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn't work:
BLMN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's TQQQ triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:
His TSLA triggered long (with market support) and worked:
COST triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, all 4 of them worked.
Futures Calls Recap for 11/1/13
Two false starts on the ES and NQ (both stopped once), but then both worked on the retrigger. See those sections below. NASDAQ volume closed at 1.7 billion shares.
Net ticks: +7.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Triggered short at A at 1756.25 and stopped. Triggered short again 10 minutes later, hit first target for 6 ticks, and closed the final piece at 1753.50:
NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Mark's short triggered at A at 3381.00 and stopped. Triggered again at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, and he lowered the stop several times and stopped the final piece at B:
Futures Calls Recap for 11/1/13
Two false starts on the ES and NQ (both stopped once), but then both worked on the retrigger. See those sections below. NASDAQ volume closed at 1.7 billion shares.
Net ticks: +7.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Triggered short at A at 1756.25 and stopped. Triggered short again 10 minutes later, hit first target for 6 ticks, and closed the final piece at 1753.50:
NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Mark's short triggered at A at 3381.00 and stopped. Triggered again at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, and he lowered the stop several times and stopped the final piece at B:
Forex Calls Recap for 11/1/13
A nice session to close out the week and month of October as our EURUSD short from the prior session ended up being a 200 pip winner to the final target, and then we had an almost 100-pip new winner on GBPUSD. See both sections below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index. Be sure to review all of the daily charts sections.
EURUSD:
The short from the prior session at 1.3690 or so kept going. We continued to lower the stop a couple of times and stopped at the end of the chart here for 200 pips to final exit to close out the week and month of October:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and after adjusting the stop twice, stopped final piece at C about 80 pips in the money:
Forex Calls Recap for 11/1/13
A nice session to close out the week and month of October as our EURUSD short from the prior session ended up being a 200 pip winner to the final target, and then we had an almost 100-pip new winner on GBPUSD. See both sections below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index. Be sure to review all of the daily charts sections.
EURUSD:
The short from the prior session at 1.3690 or so kept going. We continued to lower the stop a couple of times and stopped at the end of the chart here for 200 pips to final exit to close out the week and month of October:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and after adjusting the stop twice, stopped final piece at C about 80 pips in the money:
Stock Picks Recap for 10/31/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SSYS triggered long (without market support) and didn't work, worked later with market support:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's BIIB triggered short (with market support) and worked:
GILD triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, both of them worked.
Stock Picks Recap for 10/31/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SSYS triggered long (without market support) and didn't work, worked later with market support:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's BIIB triggered short (with market support) and worked:
GILD triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, both of them worked.