Futures Calls Recap for 6/3/13
Mark's opening range call stopped once and worked the second time for about a wash. See the ES section below. Volume was good but the market was very choppy. We really didn't address any of the Levels on the ES or NQ properly.
Net ticks: -1 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Mark's call triggered short at A at 1630.25, stopped for 7 ticks, then he put it right back in and it worked to the first target for 6 ticks and stopped the final leg also at that price:
Forex Calls Recap for 6/3/13
A couple of winners on the EURUSD to start the new week and month. See that section below for a recap.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Triggered long early (half size) at A, hit first target overnight at B, closed second half under entry in the morning at C. Triggered again later at D, hit first target at E, still holding second half with a stop under R1:
Tradesight May 2013 Forex Results
Before we get to May’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from April. The full report from April can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for April 2013
Number of trades: 29
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 51.7%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row
Net pips: +65
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for May 2013
Number of trades: 27
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 63%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row
Net pips: +390
Things were fairly flat for most of April, so the results weren’t quite as good as the prior two months, but the Forex market continues to perform better than the back half of 2012. Ranges have been holding steady. We came into the month with the EURUSD 6-month average daily range at 97 and the same for the GBPUSD at 95. We closed the month with those numbers at 102 and 105, respectively. 5 pips of range added to a 6-month average is actually a good improvement and makes a big difference in trading. Our final numbers fell into the ranges that we like, which is that we target 50-60 percent winning trades, and we won 51.7%. However, there were more trades than usual that we closed around the entry due to lack of movement. There were really only a couple of big winners for the month. The last week or so really knocked about 50 pips off the total for the month, but as long as ranges continue to improve, there is no reason to go light on the Forex markets. I’ve been full size since around the start of the year and continue to be, minus the usual adjustments for key data, etc. What we would really like to see now is more directional movement as the month was fairly flat for the US Dollar Index overall.
Tradesight May 2013 Futures Results
Before we get to May’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from April. The full report from April can be found here.
Tradesight Tick Results for April 2013
Number of trades: 32
Number of losers: 19
Winning percentage: 40.6%
Net ticks: -76 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for May 2013
Number of trades: 29
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 65.5%
Net ticks: +38 ticks
An improved month for sure, but market volumes remain light.
Stock Picks Recap for 5/31/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing actually triggered, which isn't surprising for an end of month session.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's XONE triggered before the market opened.
His VXX triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked enough for a partial:
AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked for about a point:
GS triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, all 3 of them worked, but not by much as expected for the end of month.
Futures Calls Recap for 5/31/13
Volume was extremely light for the end of the month as expected. Mark had a nice call on the ES in early (great setup against the Pivot) and then cancelled it after the first hour or so when market volume was so light. The trade ended up working nicely. NASDAQ volume closed at only 1.4 billion shares. Back to work Monday.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
Forex Calls Recap for 5/31/13
Another winner, this time in the EURUSD, to close out the week and month. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index. The AUDUSD is nearing a signal and the US Dollar Index is now 8 bars down.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, closed final piece at C for end of week:
Stock Picks Recap for 5/30/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered, although TASR and ADTN came close.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Mark's AAPL triggered long (with market support) and didn't work, although it retriggered later and did:
His MCHP triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
AMGN triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Rich's DUST triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked great:
COST triggered short (without market support) and worked:
GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 1 did not.
Stock Picks Recap for 5/30/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered, although TASR and ADTN came close.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Mark's AAPL triggered long (with market support) and didn't work, although it retriggered later and did:
His MCHP triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
AMGN triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Rich's DUST triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked great:
COST triggered short (without market support) and worked:
GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 1 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 5/30/13
Our NQ triggered heading into lunch, and after giving it a fair shot, Mark closed it down around the entry, which ended up being a good thing. Nothing else triggered. See that section below.
Net ticks: -1 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Mark's call triggered long at 3016.50 at A, missed first target by a tick, and after another 20 minutes or so, Mark closed it under the entry by a tick heading into lunch:
