Forex Calls Recap for 5/21/13
Not an exciting session. We stopped out of the GBPUSD from the prior session in the money, and had new triggers on the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Triggered short very early (half size) in the Asian session and A and stopped. Triggered short again in the normal session at B, never made it to the first target, and closed out just over the entry at C:
GBPUSD:
Closed the second half of the prior day's trade for 40 pips:
Stock Picks Recap for 5/20/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, WERN triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
SNPS triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
FTNT triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
IRWD triggered short (with market support) and worked:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's SCTY triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His GOOG triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
GS triggered long (with market support) and didn't work, then triggered late with market support and worked big:
Rich's CELG triggered short (with market support) and worked:
NFLX triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's RGLD triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 4 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 5/20/13
A small winner that hit the first target on the NQ. Nothing else triggered, and we went ours without even hitting a Level to start.
Net ticks: +2 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Triggered short at A at 3016.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, stopped second half at 3017.50:
Forex Calls Recap for 5/20/13
A winner in the GBPUSD for the session, and we're still holding the second half. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
There was a very early trigger that might have gotten you into a piece of your half size early entry and stopped. Meanwhile, triggered long at A, hit first target hours later at B without stopping, and we're holding the second half with a stop under R1:
Forex Calls Recap for 5/20/13
A winner in the GBPUSD for the session, and we're still holding the second half. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
There was a very early trigger that might have gotten you into a piece of your half size early entry and stopped. Meanwhile, triggered long at A, hit first target hours later at B without stopping, and we're holding the second half with a stop under R1:
Tradesight April 2013 Forex Results
Before we get to April’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from March. The full report from March can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for March 2013
Number of trades: 24
Number of losers: 11
Winning percentage: 54.2%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row
Net pips: +185
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for April 2013
Number of trades: 29
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 51.7%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row
Net pips: +65
Things were fairly flat for most of April, so the results weren't quite as good as the prior two months, but the Forex market continues to perform better than the back half of 2012. Ranges have been holding steady. We came into the month with the EURUSD 6-month average daily range at 97 and the same for the GBPUSD at 95. We closed the month with those numbers at 102 and 105, respectively. 5 pips of range added to a 6-month average is actually a good improvement and makes a big difference in trading. Our final numbers fell into the ranges that we like, which is that we target 50-60 percent winning trades, and we won 51.7%. However, there were more trades than usual that we closed around the entry due to lack of movement. There were really only a couple of big winners for the month. The last week or so really knocked about 50 pips off the total for the month, but as long as ranges continue to improve, there is no reason to go light on the Forex markets. I've been full size since around the start of the year and continue to be, minus the usual adjustments for key data, etc. What we would really like to see now is more directional movement as the month was fairly flat for the US Dollar Index overall.
Tradesight April 2013 Forex Results
Before we get to April’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from March. The full report from March can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for March 2013
Number of trades: 24
Number of losers: 11
Winning percentage: 54.2%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row
Net pips: +185
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for April 2013
Number of trades: 29
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 51.7%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row
Net pips: +65
Things were fairly flat for most of April, so the results weren't quite as good as the prior two months, but the Forex market continues to perform better than the back half of 2012. Ranges have been holding steady. We came into the month with the EURUSD 6-month average daily range at 97 and the same for the GBPUSD at 95. We closed the month with those numbers at 102 and 105, respectively. 5 pips of range added to a 6-month average is actually a good improvement and makes a big difference in trading. Our final numbers fell into the ranges that we like, which is that we target 50-60 percent winning trades, and we won 51.7%. However, there were more trades than usual that we closed around the entry due to lack of movement. There were really only a couple of big winners for the month. The last week or so really knocked about 50 pips off the total for the month, but as long as ranges continue to improve, there is no reason to go light on the Forex markets. I've been full size since around the start of the year and continue to be, minus the usual adjustments for key data, etc. What we would really like to see now is more directional movement as the month was fairly flat for the US Dollar Index overall.
Tradesight April 2013 Futures Results
Before we get to April’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from March. The full report from March can be found here.
Tradesight Tick Results for March 2013
Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 50.0%
Net ticks: -39 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for April 2013
Number of trades: 32
Number of losers: 19
Winning percentage: 40.6%
Net ticks: -76 ticks
Not much to say, other than this was the single worst month we've had in the service based on the official calls. Market volumes continue to be very light, and this is having an impact on intraday ranges. Several trades that ultimately worked stopped out once or twice first, and very few trades that worked went beyond the first target much. This is not a recipe for success, and we continue to suggest playing lightly in the futures market until volume returns. The results were impacted by 28 ticks of losses in the last two days of trading, but with only a single trade in the month that went much beyond its first target, this was not going to be a very successful total month.
Tradesight April 2013 Futures Results
Before we get to April’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from March. The full report from March can be found here.
Tradesight Tick Results for March 2013
Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 50.0%
Net ticks: -39 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for April 2013
Number of trades: 32
Number of losers: 19
Winning percentage: 40.6%
Net ticks: -76 ticks
Not much to say, other than this was the single worst month we've had in the service based on the official calls. Market volumes continue to be very light, and this is having an impact on intraday ranges. Several trades that ultimately worked stopped out once or twice first, and very few trades that worked went beyond the first target much. This is not a recipe for success, and we continue to suggest playing lightly in the futures market until volume returns. The results were impacted by 28 ticks of losses in the last two days of trading, but with only a single trade in the month that went much beyond its first target, this was not going to be a very successful total month.
Stock Picks Recap for 5/17/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, CPRT triggered long (with market support) and worked:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's RIG triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
His AAPL triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
Mark's GS triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's BIIB triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
FSLR triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, all 3 of them worked.