Stock Picks Recap for 4/8/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, GPOR triggered long (without market support) and worked:
SNTA triggered long (with market support) and worked:
QLGC triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's AMZN triggered long (without market support) and didn't work initially, worked a little later:
His NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked:
AAPL triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 2 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 4/8/13
One trigger on the ES. The other calls didn't trigger. See that section below. Market volume dropped to its lowest yet, barely clearing 1 billion NASDAQ shares in the last 40 minutes.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Mark's call triggered short at A at 1544.50 and stopped for 7 ticks:
Forex Calls Recap for 4/8/13
A loser and a retrigger that worked and is still going. See the GBPUSD below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short overnight at A and barely stopped out at B. Triggered again in the morning at C, hit first target at D, currently holding second half with a stop over LPT:
Tradesight March 2013 Forex Results
Before we get to March’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from February. The full report from February can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down
Tradesight Pip Results for February 2013
Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 11
Winning percentage: 60.7%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +325
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for March 2013
Number of trades: 24
Number of losers: 11
Winning percentage: 54.2%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row
Net pips: +185
It isn't quite as good as last month, but it fits our system and shows what works in a market that is still a little light in the action but moving enough that we can get things done. We had a nice range of trades, including several (not just one or two that made the whole month) that carried over session to session. We prefer to see a win ratio in the 50-60% range and we came in right down the middle of that. I would say two extra trades working beyond the first day and we'd be thrilled. Still, it is two months of back to back decent gains, which represents a huge shift over the slowness of last year at the end.
In terms of ranges, there was no improvement on the 6 month daily averages from February to March, but it didn't get worse either. Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD are holding right around 100 pips per day on average, which is a nice bump from the 70 or so pips we were seeing late last year. No complaints here about Forex right now.
Tradesight March 2013 Futures Results
Before we get to March’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from February. The full report from February can be found here.
Tradesight Tick Results for February 2013
Number of trades: 25
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 60.0%
Net ticks: +24 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for March 2013
Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 50.0%
Net ticks: -39 ticks
After bouncing back in late January and all of February to nice gains, the stock market volume dried up considerably in March, mostly due to the sequester issue in Washington. Of the three major asset classes (Stocks, Futures, and Forex), futures trading saw what I consider to be the biggest slowdown with the drop in market volume. The ranges were poor 75% of the month and most trades that did work eventually triggered and stopped at least once. We've been trading a lot of half size sessions and there were even several days without triggers. It's simply a slow time for futures, and we aren't going to push anything, keeping the official calls to about 2 each day (one in either direction). Until volume picks back up, I don't expect things to get much, but we will continue to stick to tight stops.
In addition, we went almost a full month without an intraday Seeker or Comber 13 buy or sell signal on the ES 5-minute chart. That is absolutely unheard of and speaks volume about the ranges. When we did get one late in the month, it was the low of the session.
Stock Picks Recap for 4/5/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, with the big gap down, nothing should have been taken. TIVO triggered in the opening 5 minutes without market support.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's LNKD triggered long (with market support) and worked:
TLT triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn't do enough to count:
NFLX triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
AMZN triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Stock Picks Recap for 4/5/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, with the big gap down, nothing should have been taken. TIVO triggered in the opening 5 minutes without market support.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's LNKD triggered long (with market support) and worked:
TLT triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn't do enough to count:
NFLX triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
AMZN triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 4/5/13
Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Triggered long at 1539.00 at A and stopped for 7 ticks, then retriggered at the same price at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, stopped second half under the entry just barely over lunch while retesting the VWAP:
Futures Calls Recap for 4/5/13
Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Triggered long at 1539.00 at A and stopped for 7 ticks, then retriggered at the same price at B, hit first target for 6 ticks, stopped second half under the entry just barely over lunch while retesting the VWAP:
Forex Calls Recap for 4/5/13
More winners on the GBPUSD to close out the week, including a carryover from the prior session. We also had a stop out on the EURUSD. See both sections below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts of all the pairs with the Seeker and Comber separately for the week ahead, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
GBPUSD:
Came into the session long from the prior day wiht a stop under 1.5200, which didn't stop. The new long triggered at A, hit first target at B, and closed all of our GBPUSD at C for end of week, including a 150-pip winner on the final exit from the day before:
