Tradesight February 2013 Forex Results
Before we get to February’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from January. The full report from January can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down
Tradesight Pip Results for January 2013
Number of trades: 26
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 38.5%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row
Net pips: +10
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for February 2013
Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 11
Winning percentage: 60.7%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row
Net pips: +325
Any way you look at it, this was a great month. If you had four of these a year, you'd be set. The win ratio was high, and even the max losing streak of 2 in a row was something we hadn't seen for a while. And, it didn't just come down to one or two plays. We had several trades that finally carried over between days and went for bigger gains, which makes sense when you look at the US Dollar Index and the movement that it finally saw. This is what Forex trading should be like.
In general, ranges have expanded, and while I wouldn't say that we are back to the GBPUSD seeing 150 pips and EURUSD seeing 130 pips that we expect on average over time, it's still much better than the EURUSD getting 75 pips or so every night. There really haven't been too many nights outside of Holidays where ranges were that horrible. Let us hope that this continues into March.
Stock Picks Recap for 3/1/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, PLCM triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn't work:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's DECK triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn't work:
His AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Mark's GILD triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's CELG triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, and all 4 of them worked.
Stock Picks Recap for 3/1/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, PLCM triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn't work:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's DECK triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn't work:
His AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Mark's GILD triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's CELG triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, and all 4 of them worked.
Futures Calls Recap for 3/1/13
Nice winner to start the month in the ES. See that section below.
Net ticks: +12.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Triggered long at A at 1503.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, raised stop a few times and stopped final at 1508.25 for 19 ticks:
Forex Calls Recap for 3/1/13
Nice session to close out the week and month. Our EURUSD short from the prior week stopped in the money. A new call on the EURUSD stopped, but the GBPUSD worked big if you got filled. See both sections below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then we will glance at the US Dollar Index.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Our short from the prior session stopped over the Pivot at A, and the new call triggered long at B and stopped:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and stopped the final piece over S3 in the morning at C:
Forex Calls Recap for 3/1/13
Nice session to close out the week and month. Our EURUSD short from the prior week stopped in the money. A new call on the EURUSD stopped, but the GBPUSD worked big if you got filled. See both sections below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then we will glance at the US Dollar Index.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Our short from the prior session stopped over the Pivot at A, and the new call triggered long at B and stopped:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and stopped the final piece over S3 in the morning at C:
Stock Picks Recap for 2/28/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, JIVE triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Mark's VRTX triggered long (with market support) and worked:
COST triggered long (with market support) and worked:
TEVA triggered short (with market support) but we closed it around the entry:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not, and 1 was closed even.
Futures Calls Recap for 2/28/13
A day where Rich and I were plagued with Internet issues and volume was back up to 1.9 billion NASDAQ shares, but the market was very flat all morning, then drifted higher over lunch, then came back to the VWAP. The biggest bars of the day were the last two, where we sold off.
Net ticks: -7 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Triggered long at A at 1520.00 and stopped (note that it triggered right on a Comber 13 sell). It based right under the UBreak again during lunch and we discussed taking it again, which worked, but my Internet was down:
Forex Calls Recap for 2/28/13
A loser and a winner (still going) on the EURUSD. See that section below. One last night of trades for February.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A overnight and stopped. Triggered short at B in the morning, hit first target at C, and still holding with a stop over LPT:
Stock Picks Recap for 2/27/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, FIVE triggered long (with market support) and worked:
LPSN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's VXX triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked:
NTAP triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Mark's ALTR triggered long (with market support) and he closed at even when it didn't run with the market:
GOOG triggered long (with market support) and did not work initially (which is what we count officially) but worked great on the retrigger a few minutes later:
In total, that's 5 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 1 didn't.