Forex Calls Recap for 2/1/13
Closed a winner and ended the month of January with another nice winner (that at least pushed us green for the month). See GBPUSD section below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately (see NZDUSD and GBPJPY in particular), and then look at the US Dollar Index.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
We stopped out of the second half of the long trade from the prior session in the money just above A, then the new short triggered at A, hit first target at B, and after lowering the stop twice, I closed the final piece at C for over 100 pips for end of week and with a Comber 13 buy signal:
Forex Calls Recap for 2/1/13
Closed a winner and ended the month of January with another nice winner (that at least pushed us green for the month). See GBPUSD section below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week with the Seeker and Comber separately (see NZDUSD and GBPJPY in particular), and then look at the US Dollar Index.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
We stopped out of the second half of the long trade from the prior session in the money just above A, then the new short triggered at A, hit first target at B, and after lowering the stop twice, I closed the final piece at C for over 100 pips for end of week and with a Comber 13 buy signal:
Tradesight January 2013 Forex Results
Before we get to January’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from December. The full report from December can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for December 2012
Number of trades: 25
Number of losers: 9
Winning percentage: 64%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (during the Holiday week)
Net pips: +185
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for January 2013
Number of trades: 26
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 38.5%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row
Net pips: +10
Tradesight January 2013 Futures Results
Before we get to January’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from December. The full report from December can be found here.
Tradesight Tick Results for December 2012
Number of trades: 25
Number of losers: 10
Winning percentage: 60.0%
Net ticks: +9.5 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for January 2013
Number of trades: 35
Number of losers: 20
Winning percentage: 42.8%
Net ticks: -19.5 ticks
Not a good month at all. We had Holidays and earnings, but the choppy action was pretty bad most of the month. Although I didn't end up as bad as these raw results looked, this was one of the least interesting months for trading futures that I can recall. Ranges were narrow even though volume came back a bit. We had a lot of gaps from earnings, and then spent the last week of the month in a very narrow range overall. Our win ratio was lower than we like to see, but still, you expect that a few times a year. The biggest problem was that there were almost no trades that followed through much beyond the initial profits in our winners.
We move forward to February.
Stock Picks Recap for 1/31/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SNSS triggered long (with market support) and worked great, almost 10% to the highs:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's KERX triggered short (without market support) and worked:
Mark's BRCM triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's FAS triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked enough for a partial:
His WYNN triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Stock Picks Recap for 1/31/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SNSS triggered long (with market support) and worked great, almost 10% to the highs:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's KERX triggered short (without market support) and worked:
Mark's BRCM triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's FAS triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked enough for a partial:
His WYNN triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 1/31/13
None of the calls triggered in a market that ended up with end of month behavior as expected, although NASDAQ volume was a solid 2.1 billion shares. There was a nice setup in the market late on the long side that didn't materialize.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
Forex Calls Recap for 1/31/13
We closed out the second half of a winner on the EURUSD from the prior session, then stopped out of a new GBPUSD trade, and then took it again and are carrying the second half in the money. See both sections below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
We stopped the second half of the prior day's trade at A, in the money:
GBPUSD:
Set the R1 triggered perfectly at A, then triggered at B and stopped. Came down exactly to set our short trigger at C. Triggered long again in the morning at D, hit our first target at E, and holding second half with a stop under R1 (entry):
Stock Picks Recap for 1/31/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's AMZN triggered short (without market support) and worked great:
His FIRE triggered short (without market support) and worked:
His PXD triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
His AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked:
GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's FB triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
COST triggered short (with market support) but we closed it around the entry as the market went into "waiting for Fed mode" after the first 90 minutes or so:
Rich's CREE triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
His RIMM triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
His GDX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 5 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 2 did not, but some of the better calls went early.
Stock Picks Recap for 1/31/13
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's AMZN triggered short (without market support) and worked great:
His FIRE triggered short (without market support) and worked:
His PXD triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
His AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked:
GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's FB triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
COST triggered short (with market support) but we closed it around the entry as the market went into "waiting for Fed mode" after the first 90 minutes or so:
Rich's CREE triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
His RIMM triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
His GDX triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 5 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 2 did not, but some of the better calls went early.