Tradesight November 2012 Forex Results
Before we get to November’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from October. The full report from October can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for October 2012
Number of trades: 24
Number of losers: 16
Winning percentage: 33.3%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row (middle of the month)
Net pips: -100
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for November 2012
Number of trades: 21
Number of losers: 13
Winning percentage: 38%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row (end of the month)
Net pips: -45
Last month we set a record by having two months in a row of negative returns from our Forex calls, although we lowered our size to half in late August and have maintained that size. November didn't improve the situation as we net lost 45 pips in November, the third month in a row (and the first time in 7 years of 3 months of negative returns), but we continue to be half size (and the only time since 2007 that we have been half size this far into the post-summer months). Frankly, it's just a mess, but it won't stand forever, and the fact that we have been half size in the first 3-month period of net losses shows that the system works. Also, having said that, we think things will pick up soon as the ranges have dropped to intolerable levels unseen in a decade.
It should also be noted that losing only 45 pips at half size is minor, and we only had 21 trades trigger (a record low) due to Hurricane Sandy and other factors (Thanksgiving and more). In other words, our system continues to protect our subscribers from bad environments.
Stock Picks Recap for 12/7/12
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, TRIP triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked enough for a partial:
MENT gapped over, no play.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's LULU triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
His AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 1 trade triggering with market support and it worked.
Stock Picks Recap for 12/7/12
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, TRIP triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked enough for a partial:
MENT gapped over, no play.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's LULU triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
His AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 1 trade triggering with market support and it worked.
Futures Calls Recap for 12/7/12
A winner and a loser to wrap up a decent start to December this week. See ES and NQ below.
Net ticks: -4.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Mark's call triggered short at A at 1414.00 and stopped for 7 ticks:
NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Mark's call triggered short at A at 2660.50 and hit first target for 6 ticks, stopped second half over the entry:
Forex Calls Recap for 12/7/12
Closed out a 120 pip winner and had another winner for the session to end a decent week. See EURUSD below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts with both the Seeker and Comber heading into the new week (no specific counts to look at), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
We came in short the second half of the trade from the prior session from 1.3040 or so with a stop over 1.2980. Our new short triggered at A, hit first target at B, and we lowered the stop over S1 in the morning and stopped both trades, with the trade from the prior session 120 pips in the money:
Forex Calls Recap for 12/7/12
Closed out a 120 pip winner and had another winner for the session to end a decent week. See EURUSD below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts with both the Seeker and Comber heading into the new week (no specific counts to look at), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
We came in short the second half of the trade from the prior session from 1.3040 or so with a stop over 1.2980. Our new short triggered at A, hit first target at B, and we lowered the stop over S1 in the morning and stopped both trades, with the trade from the prior session 120 pips in the money:
Stock Picks Recap for 12/6/12
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, AUXL triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's BRCM triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His NFLX triggered long (with market support) and didn't work, then worked a second time:
His TLT triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn't work:
His AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked huge:
His JPM triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
His NEM triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
His MCHP triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
His CAT triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
His GMCR triggered short (without market support) and worked:
His BIDU triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 5 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 12/6/12
One call that worked, and that was it. Market had a small gap down and filled within ten minutes. Volume was decent at 1.8 billion NASDAQ shares. See ES below.
Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Triggered long at A at 1410.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry:
Futures Calls Recap for 12/6/12
One call that worked, and that was it. Market had a small gap down and filled within ten minutes. Volume was decent at 1.8 billion NASDAQ shares. See ES below.
Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Triggered long at A at 1410.50, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry:
Forex Calls Recap for 12/6/12
A nice winner on the EURUSD which is still working to the downside. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, still holding with a stop over the black line at 1.2980:
