Futures Calls Recap for 6/2/20
The markets gapped up a little, filled, and banged around both directions all day until a rally in the last 20 minutes on 3.9 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: +5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered short at A and worked:
NQ Opening Range Play:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
Forex Calls Recap for 6/2/20
We came into the session long the second half of the prior day's GBPUSD trade. That worked further, and then we had a new stop out. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped. Meanwhile, we still had the second half of the prior day's long, which we moved the stop up and stopped under R1 eventually:
Tradesight April 2020 Stock Results
Tradesight has been providing stock calls daily since 2002. We post the results of our of our trades, winners and losers, in our reports and Market Blog every day. Some people might find it surprising to learn that while we track our Futures and Forex formal trade call results monthly, we don’t post anything beyond the trade reviews on our Stocks calls.
There is actually a very specific reason for this. I’ve never been a fan of trying to “hype” or “promote” something. Being profitable in trading is about learning what to do and getting yourself to make the right decisions. In Futures as well as in Forex, if we publish a call in advance, just about everyone should get the same fills and be able to get in and out at almost the same numbers. That isn’t always the case in stocks. It depends on how many shares you are trading and what the liquidity in the market for that stock is at the time. For that reason, I have already been hesitant to say “These are the exact results.” I would never want to try to suggest that someone would make a certain amount of dollars trading a certain number of shares or make a certain percentage. If I take a trade and sell it for a $0.30 gain, it makes a big statistical difference if someone else had to pay $0.05 more to get in and maybe got out for $0.02 less. That’s $0.23 instead of $0.30 even though the concept of the trade was fine.
However, after many requests, in October 2015, we started posting our results. You can see these monthly here.
In our system, you can basically break trades down into four categories: Big losers, small losers, small winners, and big winners.
In order to have any chance of succeeding in the markets, you have to have a system. There is no other way around it. I’ve been trading for 20 years now, and I’ve trained over 1000 people. You don’t make money if you don’t have a technically valid system for entry and exits.
Of the four categories of trades listed above, we simply don’t allow any of the first category, which is big losers. We always have a worst-case stop and we always stick to it. There should never be a scenario where you are still in a trade that is causing a significant loss if you follow our rules.
In terms of the other three categories, generally speaking, if you have about a third of your trades fall into each category, you should be making good money. In other words, if we have about 33% of our trades as small losers and 33% of trades as small winners, those basically would offset. That leaves the other 33% of so only as bigger winners, and that’s what we are here for. In our world, we count a loser as a trade that stops out (stops in our system are based on the price-level of the stock). We count a small winner as a trade that goes enough to make a partial and then either stops the second half of the trade under the entry or stops the second half of the trade slightly in the money, but no more than the partial was or so. Then the big winners are anything that keeps going beyond the partial.
So these were the results for March, which you can view here.
Tradesight Stock Results for March 2020
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 63
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 18 (28.6%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 16 (25.4%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 29 (46%)
And for April?
Tradesight Stock Results for April 2020
Number of trade calls that triggered with market support: 54
Number (and percent of total) of small losers: 14 (26%)
Number (and percent of total) of small winners: 16 (29.2%)
Number (and percent of total) of big winners: 24 (44.4%)
We had less trades trigger in the month as the markets slowed down DRAMATICALLY from the prior 2-3 months. Several days were dead flat and a waste of time, even if they gapped at the open. Still, our win ratio held up at 74%, and we have nothing to complain about.
Tradesight April 2020 Futures Results
Before we get to April's numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from March. The full report from March can be found here. You can also go back indefinitely by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Tick Results for March 2020
Number of trades: 1
Number of losers: 0
Winning percentage: 100%
Net ticks: +4 ticks
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Twitter feed exactly as we call them and manage them as well as the Opening Range plays under the basic strategy we teach for those in our course. We do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Twitter calls.
It is important to note that these results do not include the Tradesight Value Area or Institutional Range plays, all of which have been working quite well on their own.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for April 2020
Number of trades: 10
Number of losers: 3
Winning percentage: 70%
Net ticks: +29.5 ticks
Things started to get back to normal a bit by the end of the month, but the first half was still characterized by wide ranges that made the Opening Range plays untradeable. Value Areas worked when they appeared, but there just wasn't a ton of the automated trades to take under the rules. Still, we remain green and hopefully things will start to normalize.
Stock Picks Recap for 6/1/20
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, DVAX triggered long (with market support) and worked:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, SINA triggered long (with market support) and didn't work enough in either direction to count:
VRSN triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 1 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 6/1/20
The markets gapped down a little, filled, and then put in one of the most useless days I've seen in a long time with no action and very narrow candles on 3.8 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A but too far out of range to take:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long at A but too far out of range to take:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
Forex Calls Recap for 6/1/20
A winner (still going) for the session. See GBPUSD section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, still holding second half with a stop under R2 at C:
Stock Picks Recap for 5/29/20
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, nothing triggered.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, GS triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a parital:
BMRN triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
WB triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 5/29/20
The markets opened flat to lower, barely drifted down, and then wiggled twice on news and press conferences before pushing up in the last hour on 4.7 billion NASDAQ shares.
Net ticks: +7.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES and NQ Opening and Institutional Range Plays:
ES Opening Range Play triggered long at A and worked, triggered short at B but too far out of range to take:
NQ Opening Range Play triggered long and short, but too far out of range to take:
ES Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
NQ Tradesight Institutional Range Play:
ES:
Forex Calls Recap for 5/31/20
No calls for the session, and that ended up being a good thing as none of them would have worked. Have a good weekend.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
As usual on the Sunday
GBPUSD:
