Tradesight September 2012 Forex Results
Before we get to September’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from August. The full report from August can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling dow
Tradesight Pip Results for August 2012
Number of trades: 23
Number of losers: 9
Winning percentage: 52.1%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (middle of the month)
Net pips: +100
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Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for September 2012
Number of trades: 32
Number of losers: 21
Winning percentage: 28.1%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row (middle of the month)
Net pips: -130
There is a reason that we moved to half size in August as ranges died down for the key summer vacation month and remained half size through September. The ranges just haven't come back yet, although September started with a nice week (after Labor Day) with two big 100 pip winners. But, the lack of range and action led to a lot of stop outs. Typically, our win ratio is between 50-60%. September fell off a cliff, with only 9 winners out of 32 trades, or 28.1% wins. That only happens each year when ranges get this bad.
This gives us our first negative month of the year, with 130 pips of net losses. Our pip totals don't reflect the fact that our trading was half size. We just count net pips. We will continue to be half size until we see better ranges for a few days at some point here.
The six month average daily range on the GBPUSD dropped under 100 pips for the first time I can recall in seven years of trading this stuff. There really isn't much to say. The market needs to start moving, and it will at some point.
Tradesight September 2012 Forex Results
Before we get to September’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from August. The full report from August can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling dow
Tradesight Pip Results for August 2012
Number of trades: 23
Number of losers: 9
Winning percentage: 52.1%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (middle of the month)
Net pips: +100
n
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for September 2012
Number of trades: 32
Number of losers: 21
Winning percentage: 28.1%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row (middle of the month)
Net pips: -130
There is a reason that we moved to half size in August as ranges died down for the key summer vacation month and remained half size through September. The ranges just haven't come back yet, although September started with a nice week (after Labor Day) with two big 100 pip winners. But, the lack of range and action led to a lot of stop outs. Typically, our win ratio is between 50-60%. September fell off a cliff, with only 9 winners out of 32 trades, or 28.1% wins. That only happens each year when ranges get this bad.
This gives us our first negative month of the year, with 130 pips of net losses. Our pip totals don't reflect the fact that our trading was half size. We just count net pips. We will continue to be half size until we see better ranges for a few days at some point here.
The six month average daily range on the GBPUSD dropped under 100 pips for the first time I can recall in seven years of trading this stuff. There really isn't much to say. The market needs to start moving, and it will at some point.
Stock Picks Recap for 10/5/12
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, GRMN triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
NFLX triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
ENDP gapped past the trigger, no official play, although it retraced and triggered later and worked.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Mark's HD triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His AKAM triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's GS triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Stock Picks Recap for 10/5/12
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, GRMN triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
NFLX triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
ENDP gapped past the trigger, no official play, although it retraced and triggered later and worked.
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Mark's HD triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His AKAM triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's GS triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 10/5/12
A big day on Friday with three winners and a dead even trade on three different contracts. See ES, YM, and ER below.
Net ticks: +27 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ES:
Mark's long triggered at A at 1464.75. It took a long time to do much, and he moved the stop up to even, which is where it closed. Later, his short triggered at B at 1460.75 over the lunchtime doldrums, and was closed for three ticks:
ER:
My long triggered at 848.30 at A, hit first target for 8 ticks, and I revised the stop three times and stopped the final piece at 851.40, 31 ticks in the money:
YM:
Mark's long triggered at A at 13580, hit first target for 10 ticks, and stopped the second half under the entry:
Forex Calls Recap for 10/5/12
Closed out a nice winner from the prior session on the EURUSD and then had another winner to end the week. See that section below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (see GBPUSD in particular), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat Sunday after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Unfortunately, the second half of our trade from the prior session stopped just barely at A under LBreak before the EURUSD turned back up. It then triggered our new long at B, hit first target at C, and closed the final piece under the entry at D:
Forex Calls Recap for 10/5/12
Closed out a nice winner from the prior session on the EURUSD and then had another winner to end the week. See that section below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (see GBPUSD in particular), and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat Sunday after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Unfortunately, the second half of our trade from the prior session stopped just barely at A under LBreak before the EURUSD turned back up. It then triggered our new long at B, hit first target at C, and closed the final piece under the entry at D:
Stock Picks Recap for 10/4/12
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, SCLN triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
THOR triggered long (with market support) and worked:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, NTAP triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's AMZN triggered long (without market support) and worked great:
His CTXS triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His DRN triggered short (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn't work initially, worked later:
Mark's AKAM triggered long (with market support) and worked:
GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's FAS triggered long (ETF, so no market support needed) and didn't work:
NFLX triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's MSTR triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
Mark's AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 9 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 3 did not. Several winners were big.
Futures Calls Recap for 10/4/12
A small winner on the NQ and a very narrow trading session. The ES was stuck in a 3 point range after the first hour.
Net ticks: +2.5 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
NQ:
Just a reminder that we use half points for ticks on the NQ and not the quarter point measurement that the exchanges switched to in recent years. This allows us to use 6 ticks as a key target as we do on the other contracts. It also keeps the value of a tick at $10, closer to the value of a tick on the other contracts.
Triggered short at 2812.00 at A, hit first target for 6 ticks, and stopped second half over the entry:
Forex Calls Recap for 10/4/12
A nice winner on the EURUSD overnight, and we still are carrying the second half of the trade. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, and holding the second half almost 100 pips in the money with a stop under 1.3000 at C:
