Stock Picks Recap for 9/10/12
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
Couple of big winners today despite a lighter-volume, flatter day in the market.
From the report, JIVE triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's IBM triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His GOOG triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
COST triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's CMG triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 9/10/12
An extremely narrow day on the ES to start the week. The NQs ended up being much weaker due to AAPL, which lost 15 points, but overall, the market was slow and volume was only 1.4 billion NASDAQ shares again. None of our calls triggered.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
Futures Calls Recap for 9/10/12
An extremely narrow day on the ES to start the week. The NQs ended up being much weaker due to AAPL, which lost 15 points, but overall, the market was slow and volume was only 1.4 billion NASDAQ shares again. None of our calls triggered.
Net ticks: +0 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
Forex Calls Recap for 9/10/12
A night of basically 30 pips of range on the EURUSD during the European session didn't produce much for results. One trade triggered and stopped (see GBPUSD below).
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped for 25 pips:
Forex Calls Recap for 9/10/12
A night of basically 30 pips of range on the EURUSD during the European session didn't produce much for results. One trade triggered and stopped (see GBPUSD below).
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight after 5 pm EST when the new levels come out after global rollover.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped for 25 pips:
Tradesight August 2012 Futures Results
Before we get to August’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from July. The full report from July can be found here.
Tradesight Tick Results for July 2012
Number of trades: 35
Number of losers: 17
Winning percentage: 51.4%
Net ticks: +11 (+27 if you ignored the Fourth of July week)
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Totals for the month are based on trades that occurred on trading days in the calendar month.
2) Trades are based on the calls in the Messenger exactly as we call them and manage them and do not count everything you could have done from taking our courses and using our tools.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 6 ticks on one half and 12 on the second, that’s a 9-tick winner.
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 7 tick losers. We don’t risk more than that in the Messenger calls.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Tick Results for August 2012
Number of trades: 31
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 54.8%
Net ticks: +6.5
If July was awkward, August was down-right slow for trading in all asset classes, and futures were no exception. In fact, the market volume and action got so bad by the end of the month, heading into Labor Day, that we stopped making calls for the last three days of the month, as we didn't see the upside potential. In total, we had only 31 trades trigger in the month, barely half of the 60 that triggered in July (and keep in mind, July had the Fourth of July holiday on a Wednesday). It was literally one of the most anemic trading months I can recall...ever.
While we had some success early in August with a few nice winners, we had a lot more stop outs in the second half of the month, and it probably would have been worse if we had kept pushing up trades for the last few days, where NASDAQ volume dropped to 1.2 billion shares per day to end the month.
Not much else to say except that we move on now to September, where things tend to slowly pick back up, and that leads us into the better six months of the trading year starting in October. The first (short) week of September has already been better than August.
Tradesight August 2012 Forex Results
Before we get to August’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from July. The full report from July can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down
Tradesight Pip Results for July 2012
Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 15
Winning percentage: 46.4%
Worst losing streak: 7 in a row (Week of Fourth of July)
Net pips: +150 (+310 if you ignored the Fourth of July week)
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for August 2012
Number of trades: 23
Number of losers: 9
Winning percentage: 52.1%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (middle of the month)
Net pips: +100
August on average is one of the slowest months of the year, as many of the big players out of Europe are on summer break. This was no exception, unfortunately, and we dropped to half size once the ranges contracted, as we do most Augusts. It was barely worth trying for much of the month, and we even had several sessions where none of our trades triggered due to the flat market. In fact, only 23 trades triggered during the month, the lowest number of the year.
The win ratio was still on target at just over 50%, but there weren't many trades that continued further than the first target.
With the poor action, the 6-month average daily ranges of the major pairs dropped further, unfortunately. The EURUSD average lost 3 pips from 111 to 108 during the month. GBPUSD also lost a few. Even the USDJPY, which you wouldn't think could drop further, lost 5 pips to 56 as an average.
There really isn't much else to say. Four out of the last five Augusts have been bad (and one was spectacular). You just build that into your expectations for the year. The good news is that September has already started out much better just in the first week, and although we won't go back to normal size until the ranges show more than a day or two of improvement, things usually improve fairly quickly.
Stock Picks Recap for 9/7/12
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, BPOP triggered long (with market support) and worked:
QLIK triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
JDSU triggered long (with market support) and worked:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's FCX triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His X triggered long (with market support) and worked:
FB triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial as directed in the Lab:
In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 1 did not.
Stock Picks Recap for 9/7/12
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early. ETF calls do not require market support, and are thus either winners or losers.
From the report, BPOP triggered long (with market support) and worked:
QLIK triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
JDSU triggered long (with market support) and worked:
From the Messenger/Tradesight_st Twitter Feed, Rich's FCX triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His X triggered long (with market support) and worked:
FB triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial as directed in the Lab:
In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 1 did not.
Futures Calls Recap for 9/7/12
Not nearly as interesting as Thursday. The market gapped up a little and went literally dead flat all session. Our ER trade stopped twice before we just ended it for the week, see that section below.
Net ticks: -16 ticks.
As usual, let's start by taking a look at the ES and NQ with our market directional lines, VWAP, and Comber on the 5-minute chart from today's session:
ER:
Mark's trade triggered long at A at 842.10 and stopped for 8 ticks (we go a little wider on the ER because it jumps a bit). It triggered again a few minutes later and stopped again. Mark cancelled the trade going forward. It did trigger again and make it just to first target, but no further:
