Chris

Tradesight July 2012 Forex Results

Before we get to July’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from June. The full report from June can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down
Tradesight Pip Results for June 2012

Number of trades: 23
Number of losers: 9
Winning percentage: 60.8%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (June 26)
Net pips: +275
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for July 2012

Number of trades: 28
Number of losers: 15
Winning percentage: 46.4%
Worst losing streak: 7 in a row (Week of Fourth of July)
Net pips: +150 (+310 if you ignored the Fourth of July week)
July was an unusual month for trading in general. Volume and range continue to be less than average, but there was something else here. The Fourth of July Holiday was on a Wednesday to start the month. That pretty much ruins a week, especially during the summer, and makes it like the last week of the year between Christmas and New Year's Day. No one trades when a Holiday is Wednesday in the summer, and we warned people as such to either skip the week or go to small size. However, these results are not "sized," they are just raw data numbers based on the calls, and we make calls each day. We had seven losers and no winners during the first week of July, adding up to a 160 pip loss, so those that heeded our warnings and decided not to trade did much better.
Still, the rest of the month improved a lot and we had solid trading after that week. Without the Fourth of July week, we only had 21 trades trigger and 13 were winners (62%). We made 310 pips. With that first week, the net gains for the month were only 150 pip or so. That's the difference between professionals and novices...knowing when to size your trades down...or not take them at all.
No complaints overall as the Forex markets remain stagnant with the concerns out of Europe and other issues around the globe.
After a slight rebound in average daily ranges last month, the six month average ranges remained pretty stable, mostly within a pip or two between the start and end of July. That's actually a positive again, as the first week was very light and the rest of the month was better. August is typically the slowest month of the year in Forex, but then things tend to pick up in September, so we shall see.

by Chris