Tradesight Market Preview for 1/25/12
The ES did nothing on the day, and we now have recorded 4 closes that are almost unchanged. This loads the pattern with power for a move after the FOMC decision and press conference Wednesday.
The NQ futures also remain boxed up and loaded with energy. The move away from this area should be decisive when it happens. Technically Tuesday’s close was a new high on the move and right up against the May and July highs.
The 10-day Trin has yet to record an overbought reading.
Multi sector daily chart:
The BTK continues to stage just below the 200dma and 8/8 level. The next overhead is 1281 which will likely also produce a Seeker exhaustion. This is going to be interesting.
The SOX traded inside yesterday’s range so there’s nothing new technically.
The BKX was unchanged and is still above all of the major moving averages. A break away from the consolidation under the 8/8 level should be very powerful.
The XAU was a source of funds and the last laggard on the day. Index member NEM recorded a new year to date low.
Oil:
Gold:
Stock Picks Recap for 1/24/12
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Nothing triggered off of the report as they were all long ideas and the market gapped down.
From the Messenger, Rich's VMW triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His SHLD triggered short (without market support) and worked:
COST triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's GOOG triggered short (without market support) and worked great:
BIDU triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's AAPL triggered short (without market support) and worked great:
His CAT triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
His ADBE triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 2 did not. Two big winners were without market support, which is unusual.
Stock Picks Recap for 1/24/12
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Nothing triggered off of the report as they were all long ideas and the market gapped down.
From the Messenger, Rich's VMW triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His SHLD triggered short (without market support) and worked:
COST triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's GOOG triggered short (without market support) and worked great:
BIDU triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's AAPL triggered short (without market support) and worked great:
His CAT triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
His ADBE triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 2 did not. Two big winners were without market support, which is unusual.
Forex Calls Recap for 1/24/12
Another dull night but this one without consequences to us as we started a 2-day Fed meeting. The announcement is tomorrow, so I will be half size overnight tonight.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
See EURUSD below for trade trigger.
New calls and Chat tonight.
EURUSD:
Finally triggered short at A but didn't go far, I gave up on it just over the entry at B late in the session and closed for a few pips loss:
Tradesight Market Preview for 1/24/12
The ES posted a wide ranging day where price settled glued to the key 1312.50 level. Keep in mind that the active static trend line just overhead. Monday was the first day of the new options cycle and there is a two day fed meeting beginning on Tuesday so while there was little overall price bias expect one to develop by midweek.
The NQ futures made a new high on the move but left a wide range doji on the chart. Price has not been able to do much with the break over the July highs.
The 10-day Trin still has not yet recorded an overbought reading of 0.85 or lower.
The multi sector daily chart shows the good relative strength of the SOX.
The XAU was the top performer of the day reclaiming the 10ema.
The XOI was much stronger than the broad market with good relative strength in the gas stocks. Keep a close eye on the risk level of the active Seeker sell signal.
The BKX remains boxed up and below the 8/8 level.
The SOX settled within the prior day’s real candle body. Higher prices, near the upper trend channel, were recorded but rejected. Note there is a good deal of room between the close and the 10ema for a large pullback.
The BTK was one of the worst laggards. The Seeker count remains 11 days up.
Oil:
Gold:
Stock Picks Recap for 1/23/12
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, PCAR triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
NTES triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In the Messenger, COST triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Rich's PETS triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
His SOHU triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His WYNN triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial before the market reversed sharply:
My NFLX triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich later had a separate NFLX short that triggered (with market support) and worked:
His SHLD triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His GS triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 9 trades triggering with market support, 8 of them worked, 1 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 1/23/12
Boring session to start the week. See GBPUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight, but we are heading into a 2-day Fed meeting.
US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. If you follow the order staggering rules, at least part of the trade triggered long at B and stopped. Triggered again in the morning at C and stopped:
Small Cap Stock Picks Recap for 1/20/12
OPWV triggered long and didn't do enough either way to matter:
SMSI worked:
AMKR worked:
Stock Picks Recap for 1/20/12
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Nothing triggered off of the report.
Only a few calls in the Messenger on expiration Friday.
NFLX triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
Nothing else triggered.
First day in a year or more with no trades triggering with market support.
Forex Calls Recap for 1/20/12
Closed out the GBPUSD from two days ago finally for 75 pips or so. EURUSD trade stopped out overnight, and a short in the EURUSD didn't quite make it to the first target and I finally gave up on it as the week was winding down.
See both sections below.
As usual on the Sunday report, we will look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts with both the Seeker and Comber for each pair (that 13 buy signal on the GBPUSD from last weekend worked perfectly); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
Here's the Index intraday with our market directional lines:
A full week ahead, including a Fed meeting. Calls resume Sunday evening.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped at B. Triggered short at C, didn't quite hit the first target at D, and closed at the end of the chart for end of week and 15 pips loss:
GBPUSD:
Last half of the trade from Wednesday stopped out at A for 75 pips:
Nice week overall.