Tradesight Market Preview for 12/22/11
The ES was a wild ride, ultimately squeaking out a fractional gain. Note the large triangle that price is tracing out. Key overhead remains at 1250 where the 8/8 level sits.
NQ futures got hit very hard and didn’t recover nearly as well as the broad market side. Price remains below the active DTL.
The performance divergence between the SPX and NDX is very important because the NASDAQ stocks usually lead the broad market SPX. Be sure to reevaluate this relationship next week after the dust settles.
The SOX is also lagging the NDX which is usually an overall bearish condition.
The BKX was top gun on the day, unencumbered by weakness in tech. Keep a close eye on the upper DTL in the triangle pattern.
The OSX was higher and held above the midpoint of yesterday’s range which is a short term sign of strength. Use the 50dma for the near-term bounce target off the Seeker 9 bar run.
The BTK should be monitored for long opportunities off the Seeker 13 buy signal. Use the active static trend line for an initial price objective.
The SOX tested yesterday’s low and held. The pattern is still very sloppy.
Gold tried higher price but was rejected settling below the 0/8 Gann level and 200dma.
Oil has kept its relative strength. Watch the 8/8 Gann level very closely for a breakout/resistance level.
Stock Picks Recap for 12/21/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, SCSS triggered long (with market support) and didn't work enough either direction to count:
WPRT triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
RCII triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In the Messenger, Rich's BIDU triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
GS triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's RIMM triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
Rich's MA triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's APC triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 2 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 12/21/11
Two winners, one went early, on a back and forth session that ended up right where it started.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:
New calls and Chat tonight.
EURUSD:
Triggered long early at A (half size); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES hit first target at B, stopped second piece under entry at C. Triggered short at D, hit first target at E, lowered stop and stopped at F:
Forex Calls Recap for 12/21/11
Two winners, one went early, on a back and forth session that ended up right where it started.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:
New calls and Chat tonight.
EURUSD:
Triggered long early at A (half size); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES hit first target at B, stopped second piece under entry at C. Triggered short at D, hit first target at E, lowered stop and stopped at F:
Tradesight Market Preview for 12/21/11
The ES exploded higher, opening above the upper gap fill threshold, then adding on more and closing at the HOD. This is a price flip on the chart and relieves a good deal of the oversold energy. If the move continues higher the next level is the 1250 area.
The NQ futures were higher by 54 on the day. This blast was fueled by 1300+ stocks that after Monday were 8 days down. This price flip caused many of the stocks to also flip so there are only 229 of the 1300 stocks 9 days down. A near-term DTL has been added to the chart.
Multi sector daily chart:
The 10-day Trin recorded a very low close today at 0.17 but the average is still in oversold territory.
The beaten down XBD was the top gun on the day up 6%. Price is still below the primary DTL (red) but a close and follow through would be a trend changer.
The OSX also greatly outperformed the broad market. 220 is the next overhead challenge.
The SOX outperformed the NDX but is still within the sloppy range. This bounce will turn much more important if the 4/8 375 level is taken out.
The BKX is likely the key piece of the puzzle. The banks regaining some kind of positive footing would be a game changer for the broad market. Note the pattern within the pattern. A break out of the triangle should lead to a retest of the lateral boundary 33-42.
The XAU will be interesting long over 187.50.
Gold bounced back into a key area where the 200dma converges with the 0/8 level.
Oil doesn’t want to stay down. It outperformed the SPX, NDX and Compq. This is likely an asset class to watch in 2012.
Stock Picks Recap for 12/20/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Nothing triggered from the report.
In the Messenger, Rich's FFIV triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
His GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
NFLX triggered long (with market support) and worked:
AMGN triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 2 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 12/20/11
Nice winner for 120 pips to the final exit in GBPUSD, see below. It's rate that the R3 and S3 levels come into play, but they did here.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight as we rush toward Christmas.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long clean at A, hit first target at B, raised stop in the morning and stopped at C:
Tradesight Market Preview for 12/20/11
The ES was lower by 12 on the day, expanding the downside range in the process. Price closed very close to the round 1200 price. Note that the pattern is now 8 days down and the gap from 11/29 is filled. This doesn’t happen very often but like the ES being 8 days down, there are 1362 stocks 8 days down which implies that either an arrest of the down trend or bounce is close at hand.
The NQ futures were lower by 20 on the day. This is a new low on the move and the 8th day down. The gap window at 2205 is still key support.
Multi sector daily chart:
The 10-day Trin continues to climb and get more oversold. This is fuel in the tank for a reversal off the 1300+ stocks 8 days down.
The NYSE cumulative A/D line remains healthy and leading price:
The BTK was the top gun on the day or the “best of the worst”. The Seeker buy signal is still active.
The XAU matched the low close of the year--key support at 175.
The broker-dealer index is getting close to the lower boundary of the active pattern. Price is right at support from the active static trend line.
The OSX was weaker than the broad market and is now 9 days down.
The SOX was weaker than the Naz and SP and is now 8 days down.
The BKX was the last laggard on the day and remains below all major moving averages.
Oil traded in a range and did little vs. Friday’s settlement.
Gold bounced but is still below the 200dma.
Stock Picks Recap for 12/19/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, AMAT triggered short (with market support) and did nothing, doesn't count either way:
In the Messenger, FSLR triggered long (with market support) and worked:
COST triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's JOY triggered short (with market support) and worked:
NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, all 4 of them worked, 0 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 12/19/11
One early trigger and winner to start the week, see GBPUSD below. Also, see EURUSD discussion:
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short early (half size) at A, gave you until B to enter, hit first target at C, stopped above entry at D:
