Stock Picks Recap for 12/16/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, WBMD triggered long (with market support) and literally did nothing, doesn't count either way:
CTAS triggered long (with market support) and worked:
ARUN triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
In the Messenger, AAPL triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
AMGN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's PRGO triggered long (without market support, was a play for S&P rebalancing) and ran a couple of points nicely:
In total, that's 5 trades triggering with market support, all 5 of them worked just great.
Forex Calls Recap for 12/16/11
Stopped out of a GBPUSD trade for half size ahead of CPI and triple expiration, then cancelled everything early as the market rarely moves on triple expiration.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
As usual on the Sunday report, we'll take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts (with a new twist, read on) below, then glance at the US Dollar Index at the bottom.
Due to the popularity of the Seeker/Comber tools, I've decided to add a component to the Sunday Forex reports. Typically, I show the daily charts just with the Seeker tool and we point out key macro-setups on the daily patterns. Now, I'm going to give two daily charts for each pair, one with the Seeker and one with the Comber, so we can discuss from that perspective.
On to the last two weeks of the year, which aren't usually super-exciting.
New calls and chat Sunday.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped:
Forex Calls Recap for 12/16/11
Stopped out of a GBPUSD trade for half size ahead of CPI and triple expiration, then cancelled everything early as the market rarely moves on triple expiration.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
As usual on the Sunday report, we'll take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts (with a new twist, read on) below, then glance at the US Dollar Index at the bottom.
Due to the popularity of the Seeker/Comber tools, I've decided to add a component to the Sunday Forex reports. Typically, I show the daily charts just with the Seeker tool and we point out key macro-setups on the daily patterns. Now, I'm going to give two daily charts for each pair, one with the Seeker and one with the Comber, so we can discuss from that perspective.
On to the last two weeks of the year, which aren't usually super-exciting.
New calls and chat Sunday.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped:
NTAP Comber Wall Addendum, The Seeker Variable
The other day, I posted an article (which you can read here) about the Comber wall of resistance over a couple of days on NTAP. There was actually another piece of the story that I'd like to point that makes the wall even stronger on the second signal.
Here is a look again at the Comber tool on NTAP, with the second signal in three days marked at B, as discussed in the prior article:
What I didn't share in the first article is that our Seeker tool produced a 13 sell signal on the same bar, as seen on this chart at point A:
While the Seeker and Comber both share the same setup mechanism on their 1-9 green counts, and while the 1-13 countdown phases can have some similar characteristics, the fact that the Comber 1-13 count reaches back to the start of the setup phase while the Seeker does not means that they rarely give a signal at the same time. In this case, they both did, giving more power to the play and making it more likely to work, which it did that day.
Even more telling is to look at the chart two days later and see what that signal meant to the market:
The power of the Seeker and Comber together at work.
Forex Calls Recap for 12/15/11
Two losers for the session in the EURUSD, see below, as the Forex pairs remain narrowly contained. Half size tonight ahead of the CPI and triple expiration tomorrow.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped:
Tradesight Market Preview for 12/15/11
The ES broke very hard and violated the key support at 1250 and ran all the way down to the next fib at 1203. Price is now below the 50dma and using the gap window as support. If the decline continues, the gap all the way down at 1150 may come into play.
The NQ futures filled the open gap at 2225 and lost the support of the 4/8 Gann level in the process. Like the ES futures there is a large all the way down at the recent low of 2150.
Multi sector daily chart:
The NYSE 10-day Trin is getting more oversold recording 1.46 on Wednesday’s close.
The put/call ratio advanced but did not record a climatic reading;
The previously lagging BKX was relatively strong on the day and managed to record an inside day. Since today’s candle was inside the previous day’s range, there is extra energy wound up in the pattern.
The BTK is now 12 days down in the Seeker count and could form a nice candle if the November gap is filled.
The SOX settled slightly below DTL and is only 5 days down in the Seeker setup.
The XAU is very close to a new low on the move. Major support lies at the 175 0/8 Gann level.
The OSX was the last laggard on the day. The Seeker 13 exhaustion signal is pressing price lower and the current setup count is still immature. The pattern is now aggressively 3 day down from the most recent up candle so expect some kind of relief bounce before more downside.
Gold was sharply lower, losing the 200dma in the process. Key support is in the 1535 are where price bottomed out in September.
Oil was down big settling below the recent range support. Next support is 91.97.
Stock Picks Recap for 12/14/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, SOHU triggered short (without market support) and worked enough for an easy partial:
AKAM triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
CIEN triggered short (with market support) and worked but never did much:
PANL triggered short (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked:
SWKS triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
In the Messenger, Rich's RGLD triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His IDCC triggered long (without market support) and worked:
His FFIV triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
His JPM triggered long (without market support) and worked just enough for a partial:
NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His GS triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked (not counting CIEN, which did nothing); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES 1 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 12/14/11
Winner and a loser for the session, basically a wash on a dull night. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, closed second half at entry at C:
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped:
The NTAP Comber Wall
Something that I've come to call a "Comber Wall" is when our Comber tool repeatedly gives sell signals near the same price area on a chart (or buy signals, as the case may be) over the course of several days. This is especially more powerful in cases where there are no signals in the opposite direction in between.
Let's take the case of NTAP over the last 3 days. I typically focus on a 5-minute chart as it gives you a small enough time frame to work without being impractical.
Here's the chart of NTAP that I'm referring to:
Now, the Comber counts that matter are the pink (or magenta) counts. When you get a 13-signal in pink, you have an ultimate buy or sell signal. In this case, there are two sell signals over the last three days. One was on Friday, in the latter half of the day. The setup phase for the tool was the black box under the letter A. This led to a Comber count and sell signal at B, which clearly was a top as the stock rolled and then gapped down Monday morning and spent the day at lower prices.
Note that on Monday, even though we had a couple of setup counts, we did not have any of the pink Comber counts complete. Then today, on Tuesday, NTAP rallied again. We got back to the price levels from late Friday and formed another setup box to the left of C. This led to a Comber count and sell signal at D, which led to an even sharply roll.
Note that in this case, the stock had returned to a sell-off point from Friday, tried to get higher, and then got the Comber sell signal. This is what I mean by a Comber Wall. It's a lot of resistance that keeps showing energy sell signals.
The Comber and Seeker tools remain the most powerful tools for trading out there as far as I'm concerned. They work in all asset class (we teach stocks, futures, and forex) and on all timeframes. The ultimate signals are extremely accurate.
Tradesight Market Preview for 12/14/11
The ES reversed sharply intraday after gapping up and then trading above yesterday’s high. Price settled right at the key 1220 area discussed in the prior report. The current setup favors that the 1200 gap is likely to fill.
NQ futures were lower by 23 which, at least temporarily, puts price below the 50 and 200dmas. 2250 is a key gap window and doesn’t “fill” until the 2225 area.
Multi sector daily chart:
The NDX is moving in tandem with the SPX but still has some positive relative strength remaining. A cross where the NDX becomes weaker than the SPX would be very, very bearish.
The OSX continues to bearishly lag crude futures. This usually results in negative price action in the futures as they ultimately trend in the direction of the underlying stocks.
Semiconductors are still bearishly lagging the overall NDX.
The NYSE 10-day Trin is once again at the 1.35 oversold threshold.
The BTK was the top gun on the day.
The BKX is now back below all the major moving averages. There is minor support right here at the 37.50 level. There is more important support at 34.37.
The OSX closes below yesterday’s low and was relatively weak even with higher oil prices. Keep in mind that there is a fresh Seeker 13 exhaustion signal in play.
The SOX was awful--much weaker than the Naz or SP. Keep a close eye on the minor up sloping DTL which lines up with the open gap from 11/29.
The XAU is picking up speed to the downside and has settled below the active static trend line. Next support is in the 180 area.
Oil was higher by $2+:
Gold broke very hard and hit the 0/8 Gann level. The Seeker setup is only 4 days down. Set an alarm for a break under the 200dma which could trigger some stops.
