Tradesight Market Preview for 12/14/11
The ES reversed sharply intraday after gapping up and then trading above yesterday’s high. Price settled right at the key 1220 area discussed in the prior report. The current setup favors that the 1200 gap is likely to fill.
NQ futures were lower by 23 which, at least temporarily, puts price below the 50 and 200dmas. 2250 is a key gap window and doesn’t “fill” until the 2225 area.
Multi sector daily chart:
The NDX is moving in tandem with the SPX but still has some positive relative strength remaining. A cross where the NDX becomes weaker than the SPX would be very, very bearish.
The OSX continues to bearishly lag crude futures. This usually results in negative price action in the futures as they ultimately trend in the direction of the underlying stocks.
Semiconductors are still bearishly lagging the overall NDX.
The NYSE 10-day Trin is once again at the 1.35 oversold threshold.
The BTK was the top gun on the day.
The BKX is now back below all the major moving averages. There is minor support right here at the 37.50 level. There is more important support at 34.37.
The OSX closes below yesterday’s low and was relatively weak even with higher oil prices. Keep in mind that there is a fresh Seeker 13 exhaustion signal in play.
The SOX was awful--much weaker than the Naz or SP. Keep a close eye on the minor up sloping DTL which lines up with the open gap from 11/29.
The XAU is picking up speed to the downside and has settled below the active static trend line. Next support is in the 180 area.
Oil was higher by $2+:
Gold broke very hard and hit the 0/8 Gann level. The Seeker setup is only 4 days down. Set an alarm for a break under the 200dma which could trigger some stops.
Stock Picks Recap for 12/14/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
In the report, TWTC gapped over, no play. INFA gapped under, no play.
In the Messenger, Rich's AMZN triggered short (without market support) and worked big:
His FMCN triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
His BIDU triggered short (without market support) and worked huge:
SINA triggered short (without market support) and worked:
Rich's SOHU triggered short (without market support) and worked great:
NFLX triggered long (with market support) and worked for a point:
Rich's KLAC triggered short (with market support) and worked:
NTAP triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Rich's LO triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
His CLF triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His PCLN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
TEVA triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 7 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 1 did not. There were a ton of shorts that went early that worked as well.
Forex Calls Recap for 12/13/11
A dead night ahead of the Fed, half size trades for me ahead of that news, and nothing happened after the Fed. We did close out the EURUSD short from the prior day for a 150 pip gain. See both sections below.
US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight.
EURUSD:
Stopped out of the final piece of the EURUSD from the prior day's short over UBreak at A for 150 pips:
GBPUSD:
Triggered long early at A (half size anyway ahead of Fed) and gave you a chance to take it later at B, but stopped either way. Triggered short at C and stopped. I noted in the Messenger not to put them back in with Fed ahead:
Tradesight Market Preview for 12/13/11
The ES settled the day down 23 in the middle of the traded range on the day. The futures are using a very key level at 1220 for support where the 50dma, 50% near-term relative fib and 3/8 Gann level converge. Expect price action to deteriorate very quickly if the futures settle below this level.
The NQ futures were lower by 28 on the day but closed near the traded high of the day. Price remains above both the 50 and 200dma’s. The other minor positive is that while the ES is using the 3/8 level as support the NQ is still holding above the 4/8 level.
Multi sector daily chart:
The NYSE 10-day Trin is back up to the 1.30 level. Keep in mind that Friday’s reading of 4.97 will be in the 10 day range for almost two weeks and keep the readings elevated.
The put/call ratio registered a low reading of 0.79:
The cumulative A/D line remains constructive and lot lagging price:
The BTK was the best of the worst on Monday, outperforming both the Naz and SP.
The BKX was lower by 2.5% but held above the 50dma. Price is still within Friday’s range. Set an alarm for a break under Monday’s low which would be very bearish for the overall market.
The SOX continues to be relatively weak and is a drag on the NDX and by association also the SPX. Keep an eye on the upwardly sloping trend line (red) because if this is lost the trend is back to overall negative and no longer lateral.
The OSX was very weak on the day, likely feeling the weight of the lower oil prices. Keep in mind that this late cycle performing sector has a fresh Seeker 13 exhaustion signal in play.
The XAU was the last laggard on the day. Price is using the 3/8 level for minor support just as the broad market futures are.
Gold broke decisively lower, undercutting the Dec and Nov lows.
Oil is tracing out a rough triangle pattern:
Stock Picks Recap for 12/12/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, CREE triggered short (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked:
VMED triggered short (without market support due to opening five minutes) and didn't work:
In the Messenger, Rich's FMCN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich added an additional CREE short that triggered (with market support) and worked:
AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, all 4 of them worked.
Forex Calls Recap for 12/12/11
Nice winner for at least 150 pips on the EURUSD (still going) to start the week. See that section below.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls tonight and Chat.
EURUSD:
Triggered short under the trigger line at A but gave you all the way until the European open at B to take. Hit first target at C and kept going, currently over 150 pips in the money with a stop over S2:
Forex Calls Recap for 12/12/11
Nice winner for at least 150 pips on the EURUSD (still going) to start the week. See that section below.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls tonight and Chat.
EURUSD:
Triggered short under the trigger line at A but gave you all the way until the European open at B to take. Hit first target at C and kept going, currently over 150 pips in the money with a stop over S2:
Stock Picks Recap for 12/9/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Nothing triggered off of the report.
In the Messenger, Rich's FFIV triggered long (with market support) and didn't work (worked later):
His GS triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His PLL triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
His GMCR triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His BIDU triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 5 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 2 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 12/9/11
Winner and a loser to wrap up the week, and we ended up net nothing for the session again on the USD stuff.
New calls and Chat Sunday evening.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
As usual, on the Sunday report, we'll look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts for the new week (nothing to see) and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
Next week is triple expiration, so Friday will probably be slow even for Forex.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, second half stopped at D. Both trades were valid again in the morning but neither triggered:
Forex Calls Recap for 12/9/11
Winner and a loser to wrap up the week, and we ended up net nothing for the session again on the USD stuff.
New calls and Chat Sunday evening.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
As usual, on the Sunday report, we'll look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts for the new week (nothing to see) and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
Next week is triple expiration, so Friday will probably be slow even for Forex.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, second half stopped at D. Both trades were valid again in the morning but neither triggered: