Stock Picks Recap for 12/6/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, SREV triggered late in the session (with market support) and didn't have enough time to go anywhere, so we won't count it either way:
In the Messenger, Rich's JPM triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His X triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His BIDU triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
His WYNN triggered short (without market support) and worked great:
GS triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
Rich's FSLR triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His SINA triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 1 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 12/6/11
What a dead night in all markets. See EURUSD below for our one call that triggered, but nothing really moved. Even the stock market set a four year record for light volume as the markets await the final solution out of Europe. New calls and Chat tonight.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. Even more interesting was how it rallied 80 pips and stalled out EXACTLY at our UBreak level at B. The red lines on the charts are the most important support and resistance points in the market:
Tradesight Market Preview for 12/6/11
The ES futures gained 11 on the day but settled below the 200dma after trading above it—this is issue one. The pattern is at range high off the recent 1150 low but today’s action settled well below the open recording a camouflage sell signal—this is issue two. These are two real concerns for the bulls to chew on for Tuesday’s session.
NQ futures also recorded a range high camo sell signal. Price was up 21 on the day but may traders will interpret this as a distribution day with key resistance above.
Multi sector daily chart:
The 10-day Trin is back into the neutral area but is still far from overbought.
The Dow/gold ratio is near the 2009 breakdown level at 7.10. A close above this level would be the first indication that long term folks are adding risk to their portfolios.
The put/call ratio has yet to record a climatically bullish reading.
The NYSE cumulative advance/decline ratio remains strong implying that the Q2 high will be seen again.
The BKX was the top gun on the day. A close over 42 would qualify the November low as a higher low and be overall very constructive for the market.
The OSX was stronger than the broad market and continues to be a leader. The reverse head and shoulders pattern is still intact.
The semiconductors continue to lag. The index posted a camouflage sell signal.
The BTK is still a laggard and seems to be a source of funds.
The XAU was the true source of funds on the day. Price used the Gann 4/8 level as support. This is a very key area for the gold bulls to hold.
The OSX continues to lag crude futures which is generally a negative condition for both.
SOX continue to bearishly lag the NDX.
The XAU has broken and bearishly diverged from gold futures.
Stock Picks Recap for 12/5/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, GNTX triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In the Messenger, AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's MA triggered short (without market support) and worked:
His RIMM triggered long (with market support) and worked:
BIDU triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Rich's JPM triggered short (with market support) and didn't do enough either way to count:
AMGN triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 12/5/11
Dull night, nothing major, see EURUSD for recaps. New calls and Chat this evening.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:
Got stronger after news hit that S&P is ready to downgrade five European countries.
EURUSD:
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 Tradesight FOREX pair trend outlook
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| Market commentary Dull night, nothing major, see EURUSD for recaps. New calls and Chat this evening. Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional: Got stronger after news hit that S&P is ready to downgrade five European countries. |
24 Hour EUR/USD
Triggered long at A and stopped at B. If you could get a fill on the spike in the morning, triggered long again at C, stopped at D:
Must be a subscriber to view the rest of the pairs.
Forex Calls Recap for 12/5/11
Dull night, nothing major, see EURUSD for recaps. New calls and Chat this evening.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:
Got stronger after news hit that S&P is ready to downgrade five European countries.
EURUSD:
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| Other reports for this day [ Daily Picks | Small Caps | Forex Reports ] | |||
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Tradesight FOREX pair trend outlook
|
| Market commentary Dull night, nothing major, see EURUSD for recaps. New calls and Chat this evening. Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional: Got stronger after news hit that S&P is ready to downgrade five European countries. |
24 Hour EUR/USD
Triggered long at A and stopped at B. If you could get a fill on the spike in the morning, triggered long again at C, stopped at D:
Must be a subscriber to view the rest of the pairs.
Tradesight November 2011 Forex Results
Before we get to November’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from October. The full report from October can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for October 2011
Number of trades: 43
Number of losers: 20
Winning percentage: 53.5%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row (around October 25)
Net pips: +600
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for November 2011
Number of trades: 33
Number of losers: 17
Winning percentage: 48.5%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row (around November 28)
Net pips: +75
It was a much tamer month. We had two Holidays plus the Friday after Thanksgiving, so less trading days and 10 less calls that triggered that October. There was a lot of back and forth and we essentially won half of the trades, which is fine and sometimes all you get. Having said that, we still netted out around 75 pips in the pure data including partials, stops, and final exits. Nothing like the last two months, but nothing to complain about. One more month and then we will put the entire year into perspective.
The ranges stayed very average, with almost none of the pairs changing their six-month average daily ranges by more than a couple of pips. AUDUSD was the only pair that posted a gain here of 7 pips, which is nice. Because of the wider ranges in the AUDUSD, I have been looking at it for trade setups as well, but haven't seen a ton that I like. We also had some key Value Area plays during the month.
Have a great last month of the year and Happy Holidays to all!
On to December…
Stock Picks Recap for 12/2/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, MENT triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and didn't work:
VRSN gapped over, no play.
GNTX triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In the Messenger, AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's GMCR triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
AAPL triggered too late.
In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, both of them worked.
Forex Calls Recap for 12/2/11
Typical overnight ahead of the NFP data with no real action. That's why we use half size. Nice winner after that for normal size. See GBPUSD below for all of it.
As usual on the Sunday report, we'll take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
Here's the Index intraday from Thursday night/Friday with our market directional lines. Note that the key point was the change in the trend at A when two lines went green:
New calls and Chat Sunday as we wind down the year.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped ahead of the NFP data. Both of those were to be half size ahead of the data. Triggered short at C, hit first target at D, closed final at E after hitting average daily range line with no time left for 70 pips:
NFLX Trade and our GFT Levels
We had a fun trade today in NFLX, but I wanted to walk our subscribers through the play and why it was such a high-probability winner, which I kept emphasizing in the room before it went.
Let's start with this chart about an hour into Thursday's trading session. This is 5-minute bars on NFLX going back two and a half days. From this chart alone, do you see anything special:
I would say that there is nothing special to look at here.
Now, let's instead add a proprietary tool that we have at Tradesight, which are some key support and resistance points known as Gap Fill Threshold levels. We have these each day AHEAD of the market open. You get one Upper level above the prior day's close and one Lower level below the prior day's close. If you overlay these lines and look back to the prior session, we had gapped up at A to this level and immediately came in, and then we moved down EXACTLY to the lower level at B and held:
We later broke that level at C, which led to a trade. The key here is that on the new session (today); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES we rallied up to that level early and stalled right at it at point D.
From there, we proceeded to form a cup and handle formation against the level, which is always a great pattern for breakouts as the market consolidates against resistance ahead of the move. This is even more meaningful when it lines up against a key level like this:
Over lunch, it proceeded to wind the energy up by trading flat against the Level, which made the trade potentially more and more powerful:
When it finally went, we have a $67 trigger that ran $1.50 in ten minutes on heavy volume:
This is because the professional technical traders are watching this pattern for exactly all the right reasons.
Thursday was a huge trading day for us, as you can see by clicking here. NFLX was one part of the reason why.