NFLX Trade and our GFT Levels
We had a fun trade today in NFLX, but I wanted to walk our subscribers through the play and why it was such a high-probability winner, which I kept emphasizing in the room before it went.
Let's start with this chart about an hour into Thursday's trading session. This is 5-minute bars on NFLX going back two and a half days. From this chart alone, do you see anything special:
I would say that there is nothing special to look at here.
Now, let's instead add a proprietary tool that we have at Tradesight, which are some key support and resistance points known as Gap Fill Threshold levels. We have these each day AHEAD of the market open. You get one Upper level above the prior day's close and one Lower level below the prior day's close. If you overlay these lines and look back to the prior session, we had gapped up at A to this level and immediately came in, and then we moved down EXACTLY to the lower level at B and held:
We later broke that level at C, which led to a trade. The key here is that on the new session (today); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES we rallied up to that level early and stalled right at it at point D.
From there, we proceeded to form a cup and handle formation against the level, which is always a great pattern for breakouts as the market consolidates against resistance ahead of the move. This is even more meaningful when it lines up against a key level like this:
Over lunch, it proceeded to wind the energy up by trading flat against the Level, which made the trade potentially more and more powerful:
When it finally went, we have a $67 trigger that ran $1.50 in ten minutes on heavy volume:
This is because the professional technical traders are watching this pattern for exactly all the right reasons.
Thursday was a huge trading day for us, as you can see by clicking here. NFLX was one part of the reason why.
Stock Picks Recap for 12/1/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, COST triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
THRX triggered with ten minutes left, no play.
In the Messenger, Rich's AAPL triggered short (without market support due to opening five minutes) and went about $0.75:
RIMM triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
Rich's BIDU triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's DECK triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
Rich's AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
KLAC triggered long (with market support) and didn't work initially, worked later:
TEVA triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's LULU triggered long (with market support) and worked:
RIMM triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
NFLX triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
In total, that's 10 trades triggering with market support, 7 of them worked, 3 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 12/1/11
Not a very exciting night. One winner and one loser, see below on GBPUSD.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:
Unemployment and NFP in the morning, so half size, new calls and Chat tonight.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long early (half size) at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped. Triggered long at C, hit first target at D, moved stop and stopped second half at E:
Tradesight Market Preview for 12/1/11
The SP was higher by 49 on the day forming an island below the 50dma and almost reaching the key 1250 level. If 1250 is taken then the next level will be the 200dma at 1262. The market is very short term over bought advancing 90+ handles in three days. Expect some near-term exhaustion at the 1250 level but keep in mind that the overall intermediate-term condition is still OVERSOLD (more below).
NQ futures were higher by 83 on the day and settled above the 200dma. The pattern is similar to the SP in that the huge gap on Wednesday left an island below the 2250 area. The Shorts are trapped and upside down.
The 10-day Trin at 1.53 remains oversold. While the very short-term price action is overbought the market still has inherent upside energy until the Trin normalizes.
The put/call ratio did not record a climatic overbought reading.
The BKX was the top gun on the day up 7% on the day. This is a very strong impulse but using the 7/11 analysis, price will need to consolidate before making following through.
The XAU was stronger than the market which of some concern because of the defensive nature of the sector. Price did close above the 200dma. Note that this is a Seeker price flip.
The OSX did just what is needed and covered a great deal of upside range getting closer to the H & S neckline. The pattern is still in play.
The SOX was a little stronger than the Naz and settled above the 50dma.
BTK was about as strong as the Naz so there is nothing new technically.
Gold was strong fueled by dollar weakness and was much weaker than the equity averages.
Oil settled above the $100 level and remains positive.
Oil
Stock Picks Recap for 11/30/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, SBAC triggered long (with market support) and worked:
ARIA triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In the Messenger, Rich's GS triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
His FFIV triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His POT triggered short (without market support) and worked:
His AGU triggered short (without market support) and worked:
EBAY triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 11/30/11
One of those rare events where it's unlikely you could get a fill in Forex as the market leapt on news that the global central banks were moving to help Europe. This caused a huge spike in the EURUSD. We did have the GBPUSD hit first target, but the EURUSD trade probably didn't get you a fill. See both sections below.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, but on major global news and a spike that was probably not something you could get executed in. If you did, hit first target at B, raised stop in the morning, stopped at C:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, second half stopped:
Forex Calls Recap for 11/30/11
One of those rare events where it's unlikely you could get a fill in Forex as the market leapt on news that the global central banks were moving to help Europe. This caused a huge spike in the EURUSD. We did have the GBPUSD hit first target, but the EURUSD trade probably didn't get you a fill. See both sections below.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, but on major global news and a spike that was probably not something you could get executed in. If you did, hit first target at B, raised stop in the morning, stopped at C:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, second half stopped:
Tradesight Market Preview for 11/30/11
The ES posted a classic measuring day where neither the bulls nor bears really asserted themselves. Price closed high on the day by 5 handles right at the gap window and below all the key moving averages. This is the definition of a measuring day where both sides of the market take stock of each other and await commitment to a side of the trade.
The NQ futures were lower on the day by 8 handles which puts it back under the gap window. Price remains below all the major averages and has the same overall design as the SP side.
Multi sector daily chart:
The defensive XAU sector was top gun on the day. Price has pivoted off the active static trend line. A break over the 50dma (red) puts the 4/8 level at 200 in play.
The OSX traded in-line with the broad market. If price doesn’t pick up tomorrow, the reverse H&S pattern is in big trouble.
The BKX was relatively weak and continues to be a drag on the overall market. Today’s candle was inside Monday’s range so a breakout either way tomorrow could be powerful.
The BTK was weaker than the Naz and SP, key resistance remains at 1050.
The SOX is still well below all major moving averages and holding back the Naz.
Gold:
Oil closed just below the key 100 level and continues to show good strength vs. competing assets.
Keep an eye on copper. The 50dma (green) has been defining the trend and it was relatively strong vs. the market today. The MACD has recharged but not buckled. The price action is illustrated by the JJC etf below.
Stock Picks Recap for 11/29/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Lots of stuff worked great without market support on a flat day.
In the report, PCYC gapped over the trigger, no play.
In the Messenger, Rich's RIMM triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked:
His NFLX triggered short (without market support) and worked:
AAPL triggered short (without market support) and worked:
GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked for over a point:
Rich's LNKD triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
Rich's RHT triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
COST triggered long (with market support) and worked:
AMZN triggered short (without market support) and worked:
GOOG triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
HANS triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 11/29/11
Not as good as the prior night. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below. Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat this evening as usual.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A early (half size); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES might have stopped you out at B, although it went only 2 pips under the stop level and if you followed our order staggering rules, you should have still had a piece. Hit first target at C if you had any left, but still got back to the stop out point at D overnight:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short very early at A (half size) and stopped at B:
