Stock Picks Recap for 11/7/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, only PLCM triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked, also worked later with market support:
In the Messenger, Rich's INHX triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
His SINA triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
GS triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked huge:
Rich's PCLN triggered short (with market support) and worked huge:
His LVS triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His CHK triggered short (with market support) and worked:
EBAY triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
AMGN triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
TEVA triggered long (with market support) and worked:
NFLX triggered short (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 9 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 4 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 11/7/11
None of the pairs really came close to trading average daily range. We had a winner and a loser, see EURUSD below. New calls and Chat tonight.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, second half stopped overnight at C. Added a call in the morning that triggered long at D and stopped:
Current View of the Markets on 11/5/11
The best trading months of the year are typically from mid-October through mid-April. We've just entered that period with a lot going on in the world, much more than usual economically.
Let's take a broad look at where we are at in the overall markets. We'll start with a shorter-term look at some of the key indices.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is barely off the highs of the year at this point, which is extremely impressive given the minor meltdown that we had just over a month ago, plus everything still going on in Europe:
The broad market S&P 500 (SPX) is a little lower in the year's range, about at the mid-point, but has also rallied nicely off of lows:
We follow the VIX primarily to show us where "panic" bottoms occur. A number over 40 rarely lasts for more than a couple of days and often leads to a reversal in the markets to the update. The lone exception to this was the banking crash in 2008, where the VIX reached 80 and held over 40 for weeks. But, if you look at the VIX recently and compare to the S&P and NDX above, you can see that 40 was the key number and that once we really broke back under 40 for good at the beginning of October, that was the bottom in the markets:
Now, let's have a look at some of the key sectors. Despite the fact that the NDX is near highs, the SOX (Semiconductors) are still in a downtrend:
The biotechs are fairly dull and mid-range, which, typically, they lead runs in the market:
The Small Cap sector, as measured by the Russell 2000, took a bigger beating two months back than the rest of the market, but just like everything else, it is showing signs of recovery so far. Also, the Small Caps in particular tend to do well in the October-April timeframe:
Here's a quick look at Gold, still in an uptrend:
And oil, which recently broke a downtrend, but also gave us a 13 count buy signal on our Seeker tool at the lows that is currently in play (note that the green line is the operating static trendline of the move down, so that may be a target):
For reference sake, here's the weekly S&P showing 10 years of data...and we're exactly where we started. That's the definition of a "lost decade" if you ask me, right here in this picture:
The weekly NDX going back just two years shows a nice cup and handle breakout through the black line, but then we had a 13-bar Seeker sell signal back in April that is still essentially the high:
And if we back things out even further, here is 15 years of NDX monthly data. What's amazing is that the uptrend line is so precise (and in place):
We should also take a look at the last few years on the US Dollar Index, which is now in an uptrend on a longer term (longer line) and shorter term (short line) time frame, after breaking the intermediate term downtrend line recently:
The low on the US Dollar was back in 2008, which came after about 8 years of steady weakening. But, things tend to swing back over time, and while the EURUSD was a mess in the late 1990's and came roaring back over the last 10 years, the situation in Europe is the primary factor in all of the uncertainty out there right now. Here's four years of weekly data on the EURUSD:
That may be the chart to watch as we see if Europe can collectively get their house in order, or whether the currency itself might dissolve, which is something that would certainly be a negative for short term economic growth here in the US, but would probably be a positive for the US Dollar.
Remember, a weak is great when you are a manufacturing economy. It makes it easier for others to buy your products. We are not a manufacturing economy. For a service based economy, you want a stronger currency, which is something that I have been saying for ten years now in these reports. It may very well be the case that what hurts Europe the most is the most beneficial option for us in the long run.
We will continue to monitor the markets daily, but one thing is certain. Our trading opportunities have been extremely good for the last couple of months, and we've had at least 3 days per week of solid triggers and gains, which is all you can ask for as a trader. Volume and movement, please.
Current View of the Markets on 11/5/11
The best trading months of the year are typically from mid-October through mid-April. We've just entered that period with a lot going on in the world, much more than usual economically.
Let's take a broad look at where we are at in the overall markets. We'll start with a shorter-term look at some of the key indices.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is barely off the highs of the year at this point, which is extremely impressive given the minor meltdown that we had just over a month ago, plus everything still going on in Europe:
The broad market S&P 500 (SPX) is a little lower in the year's range, about at the mid-point, but has also rallied nicely off of lows:
We follow the VIX primarily to show us where "panic" bottoms occur. A number over 40 rarely lasts for more than a couple of days and often leads to a reversal in the markets to the update. The lone exception to this was the banking crash in 2008, where the VIX reached 80 and held over 40 for weeks. But, if you look at the VIX recently and compare to the S&P and NDX above, you can see that 40 was the key number and that once we really broke back under 40 for good at the beginning of October, that was the bottom in the markets:
Now, let's have a look at some of the key sectors. Despite the fact that the NDX is near highs, the SOX (Semiconductors) are still in a downtrend:
The biotechs are fairly dull and mid-range, which, typically, they lead runs in the market:
The Small Cap sector, as measured by the Russell 2000, took a bigger beating two months back than the rest of the market, but just like everything else, it is showing signs of recovery so far. Also, the Small Caps in particular tend to do well in the October-April timeframe:
Here's a quick look at Gold, still in an uptrend:
And oil, which recently broke a downtrend, but also gave us a 13 count buy signal on our Seeker tool at the lows that is currently in play (note that the green line is the operating static trendline of the move down, so that may be a target):
For reference sake, here's the weekly S&P showing 10 years of data...and we're exactly where we started. That's the definition of a "lost decade" if you ask me, right here in this picture:
The weekly NDX going back just two years shows a nice cup and handle breakout through the black line, but then we had a 13-bar Seeker sell signal back in April that is still essentially the high:
And if we back things out even further, here is 15 years of NDX monthly data. What's amazing is that the uptrend line is so precise (and in place):
We should also take a look at the last few years on the US Dollar Index, which is now in an uptrend on a longer term (longer line) and shorter term (short line) time frame, after breaking the intermediate term downtrend line recently:
The low on the US Dollar was back in 2008, which came after about 8 years of steady weakening. But, things tend to swing back over time, and while the EURUSD was a mess in the late 1990's and came roaring back over the last 10 years, the situation in Europe is the primary factor in all of the uncertainty out there right now. Here's four years of weekly data on the EURUSD:
That may be the chart to watch as we see if Europe can collectively get their house in order, or whether the currency itself might dissolve, which is something that would certainly be a negative for short term economic growth here in the US, but would probably be a positive for the US Dollar.
Remember, a weak is great when you are a manufacturing economy. It makes it easier for others to buy your products. We are not a manufacturing economy. For a service based economy, you want a stronger currency, which is something that I have been saying for ten years now in these reports. It may very well be the case that what hurts Europe the most is the most beneficial option for us in the long run.
We will continue to monitor the markets daily, but one thing is certain. Our trading opportunities have been extremely good for the last couple of months, and we've had at least 3 days per week of solid triggers and gains, which is all you can ask for as a trader. Volume and movement, please.
Tradesight October 2011 Forex Results
Before we get to October’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from September. The full report from September can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for September 2011
Number of trades: 38
Number of losers: 15
Winning percentage: 60.2%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (all on September 28)
Net pips: +410
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for October 2011
Number of trades: 43
Number of losers: 20
Winning percentage: 53.5%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row (around October 25)
Net pips: +600
A great month again, even better than the last by net results, including several trades that netted out big multi-day gains. Nothing to complain about with the results. We fell into our target 50-60% winning trades slot and had only 4 in a row losers, which is fine.
The bigger thing to focus on here is the average daily ranges, which helps explain the net gains. EURUSD six month average daily range jumped 10 pips just in the month, from 165 to 175 pips a day. That's a big jump for an average. GBPUSD was also up. The USDJPY remains a useless pair with most days under 40 pips. However, and this is the interesting part, the AUDUSD and NZDUSD have moved up to 150 and 125, respectively, for average ranges, which means that they rival the GBPUSD and EURUSD. That means you might start seeing our main trade calls fall into those pairs sometimes as the setups are nice.
On to November…
Stock Picks Recap for 11/4/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, CHTR triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked:
CTCT triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In the Messenger, Rich's MDVN triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked great:
AXP triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
AMGN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's X triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, all 4 of them worked.
Forex Calls Recap for 11/4/11
Another winner (after a dead European session) to close out the week. See EURUSD below.
Time change in the US this weekend. Typically leads to a slow start first day as the technicals are off a bit. No rush Sunday.
New calls and Chat Sunday. As usual in the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, and then discuss an educational topic.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
EURUSD:
After a flat overnight, triggered short in the morning at A, hit first target at B for 45-50 pips, then lowered stop twice and stopped in the money at C to close the week:
Stock Picks Recap for 11/3/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, AREX and GPOR gapped over, no plays.
DRIV triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
BRCM triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
In the Messenger, GOOG triggered short (with market support) and didn't really work:
Rich's ARO triggered long (without market support) and didn't work initially, worked later:
His AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:
RIMM triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's JOYG triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
NTAP triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 7 of them worked (several worked very well); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES 1 did not.
Stock Picks Recap for 11/3/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, AREX and GPOR gapped over, no plays.
DRIV triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
BRCM triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
In the Messenger, GOOG triggered short (with market support) and didn't really work:
Rich's ARO triggered long (without market support) and didn't work initially, worked later:
His AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:
RIMM triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's JOYG triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
NTAP triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 7 of them worked (several worked very well); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES 1 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 11/3/11
No net movement and mixed results on the EURUSD for the session. See below.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tool:
New calls and Chat tonight, but NFP in the morning so half size.
EURUSD:
Triggered short early at A but gave you all the way until B at the European open to enter without stopping, hit over 45 pips for first target at C, second half stopped overnight. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, second half stopped overnight. Re-entry in the morning on the short triggered at F and only went 40 pips to G, then stopped:
