Tradesight Market Preview for 10/26/11
The ES is in the retreat mode from the 1250 area. This does not necessarily indicate failure just the formidable nature of a major level. The next few candles will tell the tale and reveal the true nature of the tape. For now keep a close eye on how price interacts with the 10ema.
The NQ futures lost 53 on the session and settled right at the midpoint of the active channel. Price is still bullishly above the 200dma. Expect interest from both the bulls and bears at this level.
The 10-day NYSE Trin is moving back towards the 1.35 oversold threshold which will reload the market with upside energy.
The Dow/gold ratio has yet to dicisively break the trend in favor of equities over hard assets.
Multi sector daily chart:
The defensive XAU was top gun on the day. The 200 level is important since it’s the Gann 4/8 level.
The SOX was relatively strong and posted an inside day. The September highs remain the level to take.
The OSX also posted an inside day. Keep a close eye on the rising 10ema which is key near-term support.
The BTK traded inside yesterday’s range and was about even with the relative performance of the NDX.
The BKX failed at the 40 level and was initially rejected by the prior downtrend. This is likely the key sector to watch in the next few days.
Gold was the top performer on the day climbing all the way back up to the broken DTL.
Oil reached up to touch the 200dma. Note that the CCI is getting close to short-term overbought.
Stock Picks Recap for 10/25/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, RVBD triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In the Messenger, Rich's FSLR triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His GS triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial, although it was tough to get:
GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked for a couple of points:
Rich's UA triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
NTAP triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's TSCO triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 9 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 3 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 10/25/11
What a horrible session in every way! About the narrowest ranges I can recall in a day, and just a choppy mess that ignored anything technical. See EURUSD and GBPUSD sections below.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight.
EURUSD:
Closed out the second half of the trade from the prior session for a 40 pip winner, but the new calls did nothing. Triggered short early (half size) at A and stopped. Triggered short again at B asnd stopped:
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A overnight and stopped. If you were awake to put it back in in the morning, triggered at B and hit first target at C and reversed just as quickly:
Tradesight Market Preveiw for 10/25/11
The ES added 12 on the day making good on last week’s breakout of the range. Price has settled just below the 4/8 area of 1250. Expect some more probing of this level by the bulls before it is taken.
The NQ futures closed at a new high on the move. The next challenge will be the static trend line at about 2415.
Multi sector daily chart:
10-day NYSE Trin is still neutral:
The INDU is very close to testing the 200dma. Expect some important testing/backing/filling in this area.
In the very large time frame monthly chart the INDU has broken back above the 1999 high (point A). The grey band is a very key resistance and consolidation area.
The XAU was the top gun on the day:
The OSX was stronger than the broad market and the next key area will be the 50% fib.
The SOX is currently challenging the September high. A qualified breakout would be very positive for the NQ.
The BKX settled right at a very key area where the lower channel boundary converges with the top of the recent range.
Gold was higher but remains bearish:
Oil broke out and looks poised for a test of the 200dma:
Tradesight Market Preveiw for 10/25/11
The ES added 12 on the day making good on last week’s breakout of the range. Price has settled just below the 4/8 area of 1250. Expect some more probing of this level by the bulls before it is taken.
The NQ futures closed at a new high on the move. The next challenge will be the static trend line at about 2415.
Multi sector daily chart:
10-day NYSE Trin is still neutral:
The INDU is very close to testing the 200dma. Expect some important testing/backing/filling in this area.
In the very large time frame monthly chart the INDU has broken back above the 1999 high (point A). The grey band is a very key resistance and consolidation area.
The XAU was the top gun on the day:
The OSX was stronger than the broad market and the next key area will be the 50% fib.
The SOX is currently challenging the September high. A qualified breakout would be very positive for the NQ.
The BKX settled right at a very key area where the lower channel boundary converges with the top of the recent range.
Gold was higher but remains bearish:
Oil broke out and looks poised for a test of the 200dma:
Stock Picks Recap for 10/24/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, BIIB triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial late in the session:
INTU triggered long (with market support) and worked:
CECO triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked great:
DISCA triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked:
BEAV triggered long (with market support) and didn't work, although it went later:
In the Messenger, Rich's JOYG triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked:
NFLX triggered short (without market support) and worked:
GOOG had two called triggers, the first triggered long (with market support) and didn't work at A, the second triggered long (with market support) at B and worked:
Rich's FFIV triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's PCLN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
I put in an additional and early BIIB intraday call that triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 9 trades triggering with market support, 7 of them worked, 2 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 10/24/11
Two winners in the session, both the same long trigger on the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight.
EURUSD:
Good triggers here. Triggered long at A early (so half size); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES hit first target at B, second half stopped overnight. Note how the pair came back and addressed our entries again, with the VAH long entry being tested perfectly at C and D and the short entry tested perfectly at G (without triggering). Long triggered again in the morning at E, hit first target at F, still long with stop under red UBreak:
Stock Picks Recap for 10/21/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, ATML triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a clean partial:
In the Messenger, Rich's AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Then, his AAPL short triggered (with market support) and worked nice:
TEVA triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 10/21/11
After a decent week, not really anything great here. See EURUSD below.
As usual for the Sunday report, we'll look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, then look at the US Dollar Index (nothing to see right now).
Here's the Index with market direction lines from Friday's session:
New calls and Chat Sunday.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped at B ahead of European session. Triggered short at C and stopped overnight. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, stopped under R1:
Forex Calls Recap for 10/21/11
After a decent week, not really anything great here. See EURUSD below.
As usual for the Sunday report, we'll look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week, then look at the US Dollar Index (nothing to see right now).
Here's the Index with market direction lines from Friday's session:
New calls and Chat Sunday.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped at B ahead of European session. Triggered short at C and stopped overnight. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, stopped under R1: