Tradesight Market Preview for 10/20/11
The ES lost 17 on the day held in check by the 9th bar up in the Seeker. While the advance at least temporarily halted, Wednesday’s range was contained within the prior day’s range making for an inside day. The resolution of candle 9 will be the important factor going forward. An immediate break back above it would be a very good sign of strength while a break below keeps price contained within the same frustrating trading range
The NQ futures just barely recorded an inside day and showed relative weakness vs. the ES. The trend remains positive as long as price remains above the midpoint of the trend channel.
Multi sector daily chart:
The Dow/gold ratio remains in a downtrend and will not reverse until the 8 level is exceeded.
The BTK was top gun and unimpressive at midrange.
The SOX posted an inside day;
The OSX also posted an inside day and is winding up with energy.
The BKX is still under the 40 breakout level.
The XAU collapsed 5%and recorded the second lowest close of the move. A break lower would be positive for stocks just like a reversal in the dow/gold ratio. This is a classic move that would telegraph that investors are raising their risk tolerance and favoring equities over hard assets.
Gold was slightly lower on the day:
Oil was lower on the day but is still holding over the DTL. A failed break would be very bearish but the chart and is still positive with the MACD above the zero line.
Forex Calls Recap for 10/20/11
Another profitable session with at least two (three if you re-took the short) winners in the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:
New calls and Chat tonight to wrap up the week.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A early (half size); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES hit first target at B, stopped second half over entry at C. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, stopped second piece at F. The short trigger at G was late enough to fit taking it again, and it worked to the first target also if you did, but I didn't put it in the Messenger:
Forex Calls Recap for 10/20/11
Another profitable session with at least two (three if you re-took the short) winners in the EURUSD. See that section below.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional:
New calls and Chat tonight to wrap up the week.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A early (half size); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES hit first target at B, stopped second half over entry at C. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, stopped second piece at F. The short trigger at G was late enough to fit taking it again, and it worked to the first target also if you did, but I didn't put it in the Messenger:
Stock Picks Recap for 10/19/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, NTRS gapped over, no play.
PETM triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In the Messenger, Rich's SNDK triggered short (without market support) and worked a little:
His AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked for a couple of points:
His JPM triggered long (with market support) and worked for an easy partial:
His GS triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His LLTC triggered short (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
NTES triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's JAZZ triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
His GMCR triggered short (with market support) and worked HUGE:
His FSLR triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 2 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 10/19/11
Early trigger in the GBPUSD led to a winner, but no additional calls ahead of CPI. See GBPUSD section below.
New calls and Chat tonight.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered long early (half size or even less as we were half size for the night ahead of CPI) at A, hit first target at B, stopped at C:
Tradesight Market Overview for 10/19/11
The ES closed at a new high on the move gaining 29 on the day. Price exactly touched the prior intraday high on the move. Also, the Seeker recorded the first completed 9 bar run since early August. Not only was the ES 9 bars up but there were 1200 individual stocks 9 days up. This is a cue for either price to pause or retrace.
NQ futures were higher by 42 on the day and recorded 9 bars up on the Seeker. On the Naz side note that neither day 8 nor 9 were higher than both days 6 and 7 which disqualifies the 9 bar stop.
The 10-day NYSE Trin is still hovering just above the 0.85 overbought threshold.
Multi sector daily chart:
The BKX was the top gun on the day but still remains below the key 40 breakout level.
The OSX is still contained below the key 220 level. Note the formation of the recent candles.
The SOX is 9 days up but below the close of day 7 which disqualifies the 9 bar stop.
The BTK did little on the day and is contained below the 50dma.
The XAU was the last laggard on the day but did recoup a nasty intraday drop.
Gold broke below the recent lows and is getting some distance away from the DTL.
Oil broke out above the DTL but also recorded 9 days up.
Stock Picks Recap for 10/18/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
In the report, GRMN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
MXIM triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
In the Messenger, AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's GS triggered long (with market support) and worked:
GOOG triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's COO triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 2 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 10/18/11
A winner in the GBPUSD that triggered early, so I adjusted the stop after it hit the first target and made new calls in the EURUSD, one of which triggered and worked too. See both sections below.
New calls and Chat tonight, but CPI in the morning is one of our big three each month, so half-size.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:
EURUSD:
These calls were added ahead of the European session after the GBPUSD went early. Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and then lowered stop in the morning and stopped at C (could have gone lower overnight if you were awake):
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, moved stop and stopped second half at C. I canceled the short idea in favor of the EURUSD calls, but it ironically still triggered at D and hit first target at E:
Forex Calls Recap for 10/18/11
A winner in the GBPUSD that triggered early, so I adjusted the stop after it hit the first target and made new calls in the EURUSD, one of which triggered and worked too. See both sections below.
New calls and Chat tonight, but CPI in the morning is one of our big three each month, so half-size.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:
EURUSD:
These calls were added ahead of the European session after the GBPUSD went early. Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, and then lowered stop in the morning and stopped at C (could have gone lower overnight if you were awake):
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, moved stop and stopped second half at C. I canceled the short idea in favor of the EURUSD calls, but it ironically still triggered at D and hit first target at E:
Tradesight Twelve Month Forex Calls Track Record
We recently posted the net results of our trade calls for September. At this point, we have officially posted monthly results for 12 months. Our forex service launched in 2004, and we have all of our trades archived, which are still available to subscribers, but they were not broken down monthly for net results.
You can now review every day of trading for the last year by clicking on this link and scrolling down as you go. These blog summaries don't include our full forex reports for each day, but they recap our official trade calls that we gave for the session.
In addition, you can view the twelve separate one month summaries by clicking here and scrolling down as you go.
Today, I've put together net results of the service, and I wanted to make some comments about what it means for our methodology. Let's start with a couple of different looks at the data.
For the year, we had 427 calls THAT triggered. That means we likely had about 700 official calls in total. Our win ratio on those 427 calls was 52.46%. That means we lost on 203 out of 427 calls. Our goal is a 50-60% win ratio, so we fell into that range, even if it was on the low side of the range.
We had only one month of negative results, and that was January 2010. Our win ratio there was only 34.29% and we lost 40 pips net.
The other 11 months were positive, and our win ratios in those months ranged from 42.5% through 70.0%.
The total net gain in pips accounting for stops, partials, and final exits was approximately 3446 pips. That's a pretty solid number for a year.
Our system doesn't rely on you magically catching one or two trades that accounted for most of those pips. In fact, there probably were no winners over 150 pips net (partial and final) in the year. But, it shows the importance of a net strategy of maintaining tight stops and letting the winners ride. Even though we only won 52.46% of our trades, the gains speak for themselves. And yes, you can have losing months. We had one. We also had three months where the net gains were barely over 100 pips, including August, which is typically the slowest month of the year. None of this analysis accounts for adjusting size to account for slow periods, holidays, or news. These are just the raw numbers.
When we get through October, November, and December, we will post net numbers for 2011, but it isn't likely that the average overall will vary much. I think it demonstrates clearly that the Tradesight Forex system works and does not require a lot of time. This is not our active trading service that we teach separately where you need to monitor the market. This is our "set and forget" strategy where you get the calls in the evening, put them in, and check at key times of day to make adjustments. It requires about 30 minutes of your day, and I think it's worth the time.