Tradesight Market Preview for 9/29/11
The SP posted a very weak day losing 20 handles. Price settled below the midpoint of the trading range and the CCI could be on its way to confirming a lower high.
The NQ tanked by 35 handles and closed below the midpoint of the regression channel. Bearish activity to be sure but not yet a change in trend. The CCI is very close to breaking and qualifying a lower high. A technical lower high is defined as a lower high followed by 2 lower lows. This technique weeds out pauses in a healthy trend.
Multi sector daily chart shows the rapid reversal of the XAU moving from relative strength to relative weakness.
The put/call ratio recorded a climatic reading of 1.33 which implies that enough protection has been acquired short-term to allow for upside in equity prices.
Intermarket charts:
The NDX continues to bullishly lead the SPX:
The OSX is trailing oil futures on a relative performance basis which is bearish for oil.
The SOX is bearishly lagging the NDX100. This is a classic bearish divergence.
The XAU is badly lagging gold futures which is negative for gold.
The SOX was the least bad major sector down 3% on the day. Note that using the Seeker countdown qualifier, price will have to drop to 339 to record the buy signal.
The BTK underperformed the Naz and settled right at the 2/8 Gann level. Note that this was the lowest close of the month
The BKX was lower by 3.5% and remains trapped in the same range.
The XAU matched the YTD low and recorded a new low close.
The OSX was last laggard on the day. This is a new low close on the move but not quite a new absolute low.
Tradesight Market Preview for 9/29/11
The SP posted a very weak day losing 20 handles. Price settled below the midpoint of the trading range and the CCI could be on its way to confirming a lower high.
The NQ tanked by 35 handles and closed below the midpoint of the regression channel. Bearish activity to be sure but not yet a change in trend. The CCI is very close to breaking and qualifying a lower high. A technical lower high is defined as a lower high followed by 2 lower lows. This technique weeds out pauses in a healthy trend.
Multi sector daily chart shows the rapid reversal of the XAU moving from relative strength to relative weakness.
The put/call ratio recorded a climatic reading of 1.33 which implies that enough protection has been acquired short-term to allow for upside in equity prices.
Intermarket charts:
The NDX continues to bullishly lead the SPX:
The OSX is trailing oil futures on a relative performance basis which is bearish for oil.
The SOX is bearishly lagging the NDX100. This is a classic bearish divergence.
The XAU is badly lagging gold futures which is negative for gold.
The SOX was the least bad major sector down 3% on the day. Note that using the Seeker countdown qualifier, price will have to drop to 339 to record the buy signal.
The BTK underperformed the Naz and settled right at the 2/8 Gann level. Note that this was the lowest close of the month
The BKX was lower by 3.5% and remains trapped in the same range.
The XAU matched the YTD low and recorded a new low close.
The OSX was last laggard on the day. This is a new low close on the move but not quite a new absolute low.
Stock Picks Recap for 9/28/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, ACXM triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and didn't work, actually only went a penny passed the trigger:
In the Messenger, Rich's NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked for about a point:
ERTS triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's SINA triggered short (with market support) and didn't work, although it clearly worked later:
BIDU triggered short (without market support) and didn't work, although it did work when the market rolled:
NTES triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
SOHU triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's VFC triggered short (with market support) and worked:
AMZN triggered short (with market support) late in the day and didn't work:
In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 2 did not.
Stock Picks Recap for 9/28/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, ACXM triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and didn't work, actually only went a penny passed the trigger:
In the Messenger, Rich's NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked for about a point:
ERTS triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's SINA triggered short (with market support) and didn't work, although it clearly worked later:
BIDU triggered short (without market support) and didn't work, although it did work when the market rolled:
NTES triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
SOHU triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's VFC triggered short (with market support) and worked:
AMZN triggered short (with market support) late in the day and didn't work:
In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 2 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 9/28/11
Interesting session with lots of Seeker signals of use. I'm going to write up the US Dollar Index separately and post to the Blog tonight for discussion, but here it is with market direction lines and the Seeker:
Losers and a winner (still going) in the GBPUSD, see below.
New calls and Chat tonight. Rosh Hashanah holiday starts tomorrow, which can slow things down a bit.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short early at A (just barely, half size) and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Put them both back in the morning and long triggered at C and stopped, but the better trade was the short as I said last night. That triggered at D, went EXACTLY to the VAL target at E (and bottomed out on a Seeker 9-bar setup) and still holding the second half:
Profitable GBPUSD Seeker Sell Signal
We've had a lot of interest in our Seeker tool lately, so I wanted to take some time to walk through a 13-bar Signal on today's GBPUSD 5-minute chart to show how the tool can be used.
We'll start with a look at the GBPUSD around 6:00 am PST / 9:00 am EST this morning (charts are PST). It is currently 7 bars into the SETUP phase of the Seeker tool, which are the green numbers. Once you get to 9 (see recent course for the count methodology); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES the setup is complete and in place:
A few bars later, we get the 9, so the Setup is in force. The red count is the actual Seeker Countdown using a non-sequential 2-bar look back from close of the bar to low of the bar two bars back. Note that the red count begins as soon as the green 9 is complete:
Also, understand that the 4-bar look back count that is used to generate the 9-bar green setup phase can actually continue beyond the 9th bar. Although you don't need those additional bars (i.e. they are not labeled 10, 11, etc.) for the red Countdown to begin, our tool draws a box around the setup count once the 4-bar look back is broken. So in this case, the Setup count methodology continued for four bars after the 9, and then the box is drawn:
Moving forward, we now see the red count underway. Remember that this count does NOT need to consecutive. Also the red line D is the Static Trendline of the setup count, which is the low of the range of that count:
Seeker signals are a test of patience. This one proceeds fairly quickly but still takes over an hour to get to the 10th red count. 3 to go at this point:
Finally, we get our 13 signal, which is a sell signal by default. You'll also see that the pink risk line begins to draw after that. Basically, the trade is to sell short at the 13 (or if you want to be conservative, sell when you break the low of a 5-minute bar after the 13) with a stop over the risk level:
The risk line is F, and the GBPUSD starts to roll without touching it:
Over the next 30 minutes, it works nicely as we shuffle into the end of day:
Ends up being about a 50 pip winner at that point. Hard to complain, and very easy to follow if you have time to watch. Note that this tool works on all asset classes and all timeframes equally.
Stock Picks Recap for 9/27/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, SIMO triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and didn't do much:
DRIV and STEC gapped over their triggers, no plays.
In the Messenger, Rich's FSLR triggered long (without market support) and worked for a quick point:
His IBM triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His BIDU triggered long (with market support) and worked for a point:
His WYNN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
FSLR triggered short (with market support) and worked:
AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked for over a point:
Rich's CF triggered long (with market support) and worked for over a point:
Rich's RIMM triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked for a point before the market rolled:
GS triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
Rich's VMW triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
Rich's POT triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
In total, that's 11 trades triggering with market support, 10 of them worked, only 1 did not.
Stock Picks Recap for 9/27/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, SIMO triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and didn't do much:
DRIV and STEC gapped over their triggers, no plays.
In the Messenger, Rich's FSLR triggered long (without market support) and worked for a quick point:
His IBM triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His BIDU triggered long (with market support) and worked for a point:
His WYNN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
FSLR triggered short (with market support) and worked:
AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked for over a point:
Rich's CF triggered long (with market support) and worked for over a point:
Rich's RIMM triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked for a point before the market rolled:
GS triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
Rich's VMW triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
Rich's POT triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
In total, that's 11 trades triggering with market support, 10 of them worked, only 1 did not.
Tradesight Market Preview for 9/28/11
The SP gained 11 on the day but recorded a bearish candle closing well below the days open. Note that there is a gap open from Monday’s bar. Fibs have been added to the chart to map the active trading range.
Naz also closed below the open after testing the 200dma intraday. Price did use and hold above the midpoint of the trend channel.
Multi sector daily chart:
The SOX is still confined within the trend channel, note that the 13 exhaustion signal is still on deck.
The BTK is back into the pattern and was slightly stronger than the overall Naz.
The OSX had a big intraday surge but settled only modestly higher, leaving a tall tail on today’s candle.
The BKX went from top gun to last laggard on the day. The key index closed slightly lower on the day. The key break will be when the 40 area is reclaimed.
Gold was higher on the day and could be the first day of a bounce that could take price back near the 1700 breakdown.
Oil was very strong on the day but did little for the energy stocks. This is turning into a very complex and treacherous pattern.
Tradesight Market Preview for 9/28/11
The SP gained 11 on the day but recorded a bearish candle closing well below the days open. Note that there is a gap open from Monday’s bar. Fibs have been added to the chart to map the active trading range.
Naz also closed below the open after testing the 200dma intraday. Price did use and hold above the midpoint of the trend channel.
Multi sector daily chart:
The SOX is still confined within the trend channel, note that the 13 exhaustion signal is still on deck.
The BTK is back into the pattern and was slightly stronger than the overall Naz.
The OSX had a big intraday surge but settled only modestly higher, leaving a tall tail on today’s candle.
The BKX went from top gun to last laggard on the day. The key index closed slightly lower on the day. The key break will be when the 40 area is reclaimed.
Gold was higher on the day and could be the first day of a bounce that could take price back near the 1700 breakdown.
Oil was very strong on the day but did little for the energy stocks. This is turning into a very complex and treacherous pattern.