Stock Picks Recap for 9/12/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, HRBN triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
FISV gapped under the short trigger, no play.
LAMR triggered short (with market support) and worked enough:
From the Messenger, NTAP triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His CME triggered long (with market support) and worked:
AMGN triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Rich's CAVM triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
His FFIV triggered short (with market support) and did not work:
His JOYG triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His BIDU triggered short (with market support) and worked:
ERTS long triggered in the last ten minutes, we won't count it.
In total, that's 9 trades triggering with market support, 8 of them worked, 1 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 9/12/11
Loser and a winner in the GBPUSD, basically a wash in a narrow session. See GBPUSD section below.
New calls and Chat tonight. Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, stopped at B. Triggered short again in the morning at C, closed at D as it hadn't stopped or hit first target by end of session:
Tradesight August Forex Results
Before we get to August’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from July. The full report from July can be found here and you can get the last several months in a row vertically by clicking here and scrolling down.
Tradesight Pip Results for July 2011
Number of trades: 41
Number of losers: 18
Winning percentage: 56.1%
Worst losing streak: 4 in a row (July 30-31)
Net pips: +410
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for August 2011
Number of trades: 40
Number of losers: 23
Winning percentage: 42.5%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (twice, no big deal)
Net pips: +145
August is almost always the lightest month of the year, so I usually drop to half size for it. This year, with everything going on at the banking level, I didn't drop to half size until part-way through the month, and then things got light. Let's face it...August is almost always an unimpressive month and this was no exception. Still turned out green, and it shows you the strength of our trading system that you can win LESS than 50% of the trades and still at least be green. It did come down to three or four trades, but no big deal.
Even though most of the days weren't that exciting, the six-month average ranges (ADR) did INCREASE from August, with EURUSD and GBPUSD gaining 5 pips on their ADRs in the month, which is pretty significant. Check out the analysis of the US Dollar Index from two weekends ago here, and that makes sense, as we had been stuck in a narrow range for a few months, but at the same time, we didn't net out going anywhere in August.
On to September and putting summer behind us...
A Key Breakout on the US Dollar Index
A couple of months ago, we were watching the rising triangle wedge that was forming between the two lines on the chart below, looking for a breakout or breakdown. At point A, the Index broke out intraday but failed to close above the key 76.00 level. It ended up breaking under the trendline at B, but that ended up leading to general sideways action for August doldrums:
We have now officially rallied at C and broken through the 76.00 level, which is significant and bodes well for the US Dollar over the next weeks and perhaps even months. It also means that the US Dollar Index low still was back in 2008 for now, as you can see on this weekly chart:
Stock Calls Recap for 9/9/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, SPRD triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
ULTA gapped over the trigger, no play.
In the Messenger, BIDU triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
RIMM triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
Rich's ARBA triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
NFLX triggered short (with market support) and didn't work initially, though it worked later:
NTAP triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
BIDU triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 5 did not. First day with less than 50% winners in three months.
Stock Calls Recap for 9/9/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, SPRD triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
ULTA gapped over the trigger, no play.
In the Messenger, BIDU triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
RIMM triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
Rich's ARBA triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
NFLX triggered short (with market support) and didn't work initially, though it worked later:
NTAP triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
BIDU triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 5 did not. First day with less than 50% winners in three months.
Forex Calls Recap for 9/9/11
Interesting close to the week and mostly flat until the US session. US Dollar Index broke out strongly in the end. Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:
As usual on the Sunday report, we will review the action from Thursday night/Friday (loser and winner in GBPUSD); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES then look through the daily charts heading into the new week (nothing special); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES then look at the US Dollar Index daily chart, which broke a key level this week.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. Came back in the morning just in time to re-enter at B, hit first target at C, closed final piece at D for about a 60 pips average winner after a 25 pip average loser:
Forex Calls Recap for 9/9/11
Interesting close to the week and mostly flat until the US session. US Dollar Index broke out strongly in the end. Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:
As usual on the Sunday report, we will review the action from Thursday night/Friday (loser and winner in GBPUSD); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES then look through the daily charts heading into the new week (nothing special); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES then look at the US Dollar Index daily chart, which broke a key level this week.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. Came back in the morning just in time to re-enter at B, hit first target at C, closed final piece at D for about a 60 pips average winner after a 25 pip average loser:
Stock Picks Recap for 9/8/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, REGN triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes, but you should never miss a top pick that triggers clean like that) and worked great:
WPRT triggered long (with market support) and worked:
NETL triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In the Messenger, NTAP triggered long (with market support) and didn't work (although it went later):
Rich's QCOM triggered long (with market support) and worked:
NFLX triggered long (with market support) and worked for over a point:
AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
Rich's FSLR triggered short (with market support) and worked:
GOOG triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's TZOO triggered short (with market support) and didn't go enough either direction to count:
AMZN triggered short (with market support) and didn't work (went about $0.60, not necessarily enough for a partial on a $200 stock):
In total, that's 9 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 3 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 9/8/11
Better ranges and a winner in the EURUSD. See below. New calls and Chat tonight, back to full size.
Here's the US Dollar Index with market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Triggered short early at A but gave you a chance to enter at B at the European open instead without ever stopping. Hit first target at C, lowered stop in the morning over S1 and stopped at D, unfortunately before it ran even further:
