Forex Calls Recap for 7/27/11
The Dollar gained strength overnight. See EURUSD below for trade reviews. Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional lines:
New calls and chat tonight.
EURUSD:
I've been half size with the situation in Washington unresolved. Triggered short very early (so 1/4 size) at A and stopped. Triggered short at B and stopped. Triggered short at C, hit first target at D, stop is over S1 and holding 100 pips in the money:
Tradesight Market Preview for 7/28/11
The SP lost 27 handles, bearishly closing lower than both the close 7 and 11 days ago. This often implies that there is sufficient downward pressure to follow through and not need a measuring day. The tape is currently news driven by earrings and compounded from the news or no news coming out of Washington and could confound the 7/11 signal.
The Naz lost 66 closing on the low of the day. Since price was rejected at he +2/8 level a pullback to the 6/8 level should be support.
The put/call ratio closed slightly elevated, but not climatically so, at 1.05.
The 10-day Trin neutral at 1.06.
The CMR consumer durables made a new low closed below the Q2 lows and also below the 200dma. This is not good news since it was the top sector on the day and is usually a hiding place in a weak tape.
The BKX remains trapped in the down channel.
The OSX remains constructive holding above the 50 and 200dmas.
The XAU was a source of funds and underperformed the broad market. See comments on gold below.
The BTK took a very big hit losing 3.5 % on the day and also leaving the recent trading range (read key support) behind. Next support is at 1320 where the 2010 highs converge with the 200dma.
The SOX was the last laggard on the day off 3.7%. The pattern did however hold above the midpoint of the regression channel which may prove important. Wednesday was 11 days down on the daily.
Gold recorded a new high on the move but closed lower on the day. Price is being repelled by the key 8/8 Gann level.
Oil was lower on the day, closing below the 4/8 level which is currently the new Sheriff in town.
Stock Picks Recap for 7/26/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, NTES triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked:
CTRP triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked:
TEVA triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In the Messenger, calls were light as the market was bifurcated and few patterns set up to my liking.
AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked:
SINA triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support and all three worked.
Forex Calls Recap for 7/26/11
And as the debt ceiling talks fall apart, the US Dollar starts to fall. Not good. It did give us a winner in the EURUSD that you should still be in under our rules if interested, and I remain half size with all of this going on. It did trigger on a news spike related to Washington, see EURUSD below.
Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, currently have a stop under C:
Stock Picks Recap for 7/25/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, NTES triggered long (with market support) and ran more than enough for a partial:
IBKR triggered short (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked enough for a partial:
PRXL triggered short (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked enough for a partial:
In the Messenger, GOOG triggered long over the high of the opening 5 minute bar high (with market support) and worked:
RIMM triggered short (without market support) and worked:
NFLX triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
AAPL triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
FSLR triggered short in the afternoon (without market support) and worked:
COST triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, all four of them worked, as did some that triggered without market support like RIMM.
Stock Picks Recap for 7/22/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, CERN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
RMBS gapped over the trigger, no play.
GILD triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and didn't work:
In the Messenger, AAPL triggered long (without market support on the ES, although NQ was positive at the time) and worked:
GS triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, both of them worked.
Forex Calls Recap for 7/22/11
Extremely dull overnight, and then the Dollar picked up and gave us a winner in the EURUSD in the morning. As usual on the Sunday report, we'll take at a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (nothing to see) and then glance at the US Dollar Index.
Speaking of, here's the index intraday from Thursday/Friday with our market directional level:
New calls, Levels, and Chat Friday. Mark is on vacation this week so the Levels could be a little delayed some days.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop over entry and stopped at C to close out the week with a winner:
Using Gap Fill Threshold Levels
Let's take a look at something that we call the "Gap Fill Threshold" levels. The simple version of these calculations is that when a stock or futures contract gaps past them, it becomes much less likely that it will turn around and come back and fill the gap. There are two calculations that we provide each day, one for a gap up (the Upper Gap Fill Threshold, a dashed green line on the following charts) and one for a gap down (the Lower Gap Fill Threshold, a dashed red line on the following charts).
Not only are these crucial for determining if the market has gapped beyond a certain threshold, but the exact numbers themselves can be support or resistance levels.
Each of the following four charts are of the ES contract, 5-minute bars, showing each day so far this week (Monday through Thursday) and the LAST bar of the prior day, just so you can see if there was a gap from the prior close to the open.
Let's have a look at Monday to start, where the ES gapped down under the Lower Gap Fill Threshold (meaning it was less likely to head up and fill the gap); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES retested the line exactly, and then went lower and never looked back:
Now Tuesday, where we gapped just over the Upper Gap Fill Threshold and kept going:
Wednesday opened between the GFT levels and never touched either...in fact, a dead flat session in the middle of earnings season:
Thursday, we opened above the Upper GFT, pulled back to touch it exactly, and then turned up, so once again, the market telling us that it probably wasn't going to fill and then testing the exact level as support:
As you can see, when you get a gap, these GFT levels can give you a lot of information. Commonly, if we get a gap but it is NOT beyond the GFT in that direction, the gap will fill.
As a side note, the GFT levels exist on individual stocks, which we can provide you by request in our Trading Lab. Here is an example today of NFLX, which didn't gap at all at the open on Thursday, but note how it used the Upper GFT (solid green line here) as resistance early and then the Lower GFT (solid red line here) as the low later in the session:
Had it gapped past either one, the odds are high that it never would have come back.
Using Gap Fill Threshold Levels
Let's take a look at something that we call the "Gap Fill Threshold" levels. The simple version of these calculations is that when a stock or futures contract gaps past them, it becomes much less likely that it will turn around and come back and fill the gap. There are two calculations that we provide each day, one for a gap up (the Upper Gap Fill Threshold, a dashed green line on the following charts) and one for a gap down (the Lower Gap Fill Threshold, a dashed red line on the following charts).
Not only are these crucial for determining if the market has gapped beyond a certain threshold, but the exact numbers themselves can be support or resistance levels.
Each of the following four charts are of the ES contract, 5-minute bars, showing each day so far this week (Monday through Thursday) and the LAST bar of the prior day, just so you can see if there was a gap from the prior close to the open.
Let's have a look at Monday to start, where the ES gapped down under the Lower Gap Fill Threshold (meaning it was less likely to head up and fill the gap); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES retested the line exactly, and then went lower and never looked back:
Now Tuesday, where we gapped just over the Upper Gap Fill Threshold and kept going:
Wednesday opened between the GFT levels and never touched either...in fact, a dead flat session in the middle of earnings season:
Thursday, we opened above the Upper GFT, pulled back to touch it exactly, and then turned up, so once again, the market telling us that it probably wasn't going to fill and then testing the exact level as support:
As you can see, when you get a gap, these GFT levels can give you a lot of information. Commonly, if we get a gap but it is NOT beyond the GFT in that direction, the gap will fill.
As a side note, the GFT levels exist on individual stocks, which we can provide you by request in our Trading Lab. Here is an example today of NFLX, which didn't gap at all at the open on Thursday, but note how it used the Upper GFT (solid green line here) as resistance early and then the Lower GFT (solid red line here) as the low later in the session:
Had it gapped past either one, the odds are high that it never would have come back.
Stock Picks Recap for 7/21/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, CHTR triggered long (with market support) and worked:
INTU triggered short (without market support) and worked:
From the Messenger, GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
Mark's EBAY triggered long (with market support) and worked:
NFLX triggered short (without market support) and worked:
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, all 3 of them worked.