Forex Calls Recap for 7/5/11
Nice start to the week. Winners in EURUSD and GBPUSD, although we also had one stop out on GBPUSD. See both sections in the report below for the review.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional lines:
New calls and Chat tonight with only three days left for the week.
EURUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, holding position with stop over S1:
GBPUSD:
Calls for the European session triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B, hit first target at C, raised stop under Pivot and stopped at D:
Tradesight June Forex Results
Before we get to June’s numbers (which were huge); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES here is a short reminder of the results from May. The full report from May can be found here.
Tradesight Pip Results for May 2011
Number of trades: 36
Number of losers: 18
Winning percentage: 50%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row (May 16-19)
Net pips: +266
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for June 2011
Number of trades: 42
Number of losers: 17
Winning percentage: 59.5%
Worst losing streak: 3 in a row (June 26-27)
Net pips: +645
Just a stellar month with several calls leading to triple-digit pip gains. It was a month where the market behaved very technically and reaching first targets was more common, increasing our win rate to almost 60% of triggered trades. One key here is that average daily range on the EURUSD has moved ahead of GBPUSD in the last few months, and we made more calls in the EURUSD this month. Additionally, the EURUSD 6-month Average Daily Range increased by 4 pips to 145 during the month of June, which means that we had a lot of days above that average to bring the 6-month number up. GBPUSD dropped to 136 pips of range per day. The JPY-based pairs continue to see less activity, with the USDJPY pair in particular being almost untradeable many days with 35 pips of range. Have to stay away from that pair for now.
Hopefully, July will continue to impress, as we know that August is, on average, the lightest month of the year for Forex ranges, but you never know.
Forex Calls Recap for 7/1/11
Winner and losers to wrap up the week and month here. Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:
See GBPUSD below for recap of calls. With the Fourth of July Holiday here in the US on Monday, there will be no Levels or calls Sunday and no report on Monday. Levels and calls will resume Monday after 5 pm EST. Have a great weekend.
The June summary of trades will be posted to the Blog today.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A (early, half size) and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Triggered short at C, hit 50 pips for first target at D, stopped second half at E. Triggered long at F and did nothing, closed even at G, no end of week bank closeout move:
Forex Calls Recap for 7/1/11
Winner and losers to wrap up the week and month here. Here's a look at the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:
See GBPUSD below for recap of calls. With the Fourth of July Holiday here in the US on Monday, there will be no Levels or calls Sunday and no report on Monday. Levels and calls will resume Monday after 5 pm EST. Have a great weekend.
The June summary of trades will be posted to the Blog today.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A (early, half size) and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Triggered short at C, hit 50 pips for first target at D, stopped second half at E. Triggered long at F and did nothing, closed even at G, no end of week bank closeout move:
Stock Picks Recap for 6/30/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, BEAV triggered long (with market support) and worked:
AZPN triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
IACI triggered long (with market support) and worked:
CHKP triggered long (with market support) and worked:
SIAL triggered long (with market support) and worked:
BRKR triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In the Messenger, GS triggered short (without market support) and worked enough for a partial but that was it:
Rich's AGU triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
His BIDU triggered long (with market support) and worked:
SINA triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 7 trades triggering with market support, all 7 of them worked.
Forex Calls Recap for 6/30/11
More winners for the session, see EURUSD and GBPUSD summaries below. Here's the US Dollar Index with our market directional tool for the session:
New calls and Chat tonight to end the month of June and head into the long weekend. There will be no calls Sunday.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A (early) but gave you plenty of time to enter through B without stopping, hit first target at C, stopped second piece at entry at D:
GBPUSD:
I added an additional call ahead of the European session short under red UBreak which swept at A and stopped unfortunately (worked later). Our other call triggered short at B, hit first target at C, and stopped final piece just over entry at D:
Tradesight Market Preview for 6/30/11
The SP gained 10 on the day following through on the range breakout. The next important level is the 4/8 Gann level that is also where the 50dma lives.
The Naz side underperformed only adding 10 on the day (should be more like 13+ to match the SP side). The static trend line and 50dma are the next resistance levels. Keep in mind that Thursday is the last day of the month and will likely be choppy.
Multi sector daily chart:
The BKX was top gun finally breaking above the recent range. The Seeker exhaustion signal implies that more upside is likely. Keep on top of this sector for reversal setups.
The XAU took another shot at 200, the 50dma is the next level to consider.
The OSX broke above the DTL. Overweight this sector for long ideas.
The Transports followed through and will likely take a shot at the static trend line as long as energy prices don’t run away.
The BTK underperformed the market and is now 7 days up.
The SOX is still weak and was actually down on the day. Price remains trapped in the middle of the current regression channel.
The XAL took a breather after recording 9 days up. Set an alarm for a breakout over 43.04 after the pullback.
Oil closed back above 95, note the DTL.
Gold was higher by about 10 the 50dma is a very key area.
Tradesight Market Preview for 6/30/11
The SP gained 10 on the day following through on the range breakout. The next important level is the 4/8 Gann level that is also where the 50dma lives.
The Naz side underperformed only adding 10 on the day (should be more like 13+ to match the SP side). The static trend line and 50dma are the next resistance levels. Keep in mind that Thursday is the last day of the month and will likely be choppy.
Multi sector daily chart:
The BKX was top gun finally breaking above the recent range. The Seeker exhaustion signal implies that more upside is likely. Keep on top of this sector for reversal setups.
The XAU took another shot at 200, the 50dma is the next level to consider.
The OSX broke above the DTL. Overweight this sector for long ideas.
The Transports followed through and will likely take a shot at the static trend line as long as energy prices don’t run away.
The BTK underperformed the market and is now 7 days up.
The SOX is still weak and was actually down on the day. Price remains trapped in the middle of the current regression channel.
The XAL took a breather after recording 9 days up. Set an alarm for a breakout over 43.04 after the pullback.
Oil closed back above 95, note the DTL.
Gold was higher by about 10 the 50dma is a very key area.
Stock Picks Recap for 6/29/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, SCSS triggered long (without market support) and worked:
MPEL gapped over the trigger, no play.
PODD triggered long (with market support) and worked:
WFSL triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In the Messenger, Rich's P triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His JPM triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked a little:
His GS triggered long (without market support) and worked huge:
His SOHU triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
NFLX triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's AIG triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
In the afternoon, Rich's AAPL triggered short (without market support) and worked:
AMZN triggered short (without market support) and worked:
Rich's FSLR triggered long (with market support) and worked late:
In total, that's 7 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 2 did not.
Stock Picks Recap for 6/29/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, SCSS triggered long (without market support) and worked:
MPEL gapped over the trigger, no play.
PODD triggered long (with market support) and worked:
WFSL triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In the Messenger, Rich's P triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His JPM triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked a little:
His GS triggered long (without market support) and worked huge:
His SOHU triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
NFLX triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's AIG triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
In the afternoon, Rich's AAPL triggered short (without market support) and worked:
AMZN triggered short (without market support) and worked:
Rich's FSLR triggered long (with market support) and worked late:
In total, that's 7 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 2 did not.