Forex Calls Recap for 6/6/11
A loser and a winner and a really flat overnight session to start the week.
See EURUSD below.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday chart with market directional lines:
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A and stopped. Triggered short at B, hit first target finally at C, holding second half:
Tradesight May Forex Results
Before we get to May’s numbers, here is a short reminder of the results from April. The full report from April can be found here.
Tradesight Pip Results for April 2011
Number of trades: 26
Number of losers: 14
Winning percentage: 53.8%
Worst losing streak: 2 in a row (twice)
Net pips: +140
Reminder: Here are the rules.
1) Calls made in the calendar month count. In other words, a call made on August 31 that triggered the morning of September 1 is not part of September. Calls made on Thursday, September 30 that triggered between then and the morning of October 1 ARE part of September.
2) Trades that triggered before 8 pm EST / 5 pm PST (i.e. pre Asia) and NEVER gave you a chance to re-enter are NOT counted. Everything else is counted equally.
3) All trades are broken into two pieces, with the assumption that one half is sold at the first target and one half is sold at the final exit. These are then averaged. So if we made 40 pips on one half and 60 on the second, that’s a 50-pip winner. If we made 40 pips on one half, never adjusted our stop, and the second half stopped for the 25 pip loser, then that’s a 7 pip winner (15 divided by 2 is 7.5, and I rounded down).
4) Pure losers (trades that just stop out) are considered 25 pip losers. In some cases, this can be a few more or a few less, but it should average right in there, so instead of making it complicated, I count them as 25 pips.
5) Trade re-entries are valid if a trade stops except between 3 am EST and 9 am EST (when I’m sleeping). So in other words, even if you are awake in those hours and you could have re-entered, I’m only counting things that I would have done. This is important because otherwise the implication is that you need to be awake 24/6. Triggers that occur right on the Big Three news announcements each month don’t count as you shouldn’t have orders in that close at that time.
You can go through the reports and compare the breakdown that I give as each trade is reviewed.
Tradesight Pip Results for May 2011
Number of trades: 36
Number of losers: 18
Winning percentage: 50%
Worst losing streak: 5 in a row (May 16-19)
Net pips: +266
I much better return to form as we had 10 more trades trigger in May than April and things went pretty well and were spread out again. The interesting thing is that the Average Daily Ranges (6 month) dropped 2-4 pips on most of the pairs (except the AUDUSD and NZDUSD) during May, which is again a pretty sharp drop on a number based on six months worth of data when only 23 days are new. Still, the system works because holding winners into the next session pays off, and this time, there were several nice gainers scattered throughout the month. We ended up with a total net gain of 266 pips, which is much better than the last few months. As long as at least 3-4 months of the year are 250 pips or higher, we're in good shape since we keep such tight stops.
It would be more interesting to see the average ranges gain for the first time in a while, which should only provide us with better results. Late summer isn't the usual time to see that, but you never know, and we have early summer to deal with first. On to June...
Forex Calls Recap for 6/3/11
Closed out the week with two winners on the GPUSD, one for small size ahead of NFP data, but the second came after the data in the morning, so thus, full size. See GBPUSD below.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with market directional tools for the session:
As usual with the Sunday report, we will take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (nothing special); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES then look at the US Dollar Index.
May results will be posted to the Blog and Messenger over the weekend.
New calls and Chat Sunday with Levels.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A (early, so partial size); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES gave you a chance to take right at my midnight at the European session start, hit first target at B, closed second piece at C. Triggered long at D, hit first target at E, closed final piece to end the week:
Stock Picks Recap for 6/3/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, SINA triggered long (with market support) and didn't really work considering it is over $100, although I did take a partial:
ISIL, URBN, and SANM gapped under their short triggers, no plays.
ETFC triggered in the last five minutes, no play.
ASIA triggered short (without market support) and worked:
Not surprisingly with a gap, the calls in the Messenger did better.
GS triggered long (with market support) and worked:
AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
RIMM triggered short (with market support) and worked:
EBAY triggered long (with market support) and did not work:
Rich's TZOO triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's VMW triggered short (with market support) and worked:
AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 2 did not.
Stock Picks Recap for 6/3/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, SINA triggered long (with market support) and didn't really work considering it is over $100, although I did take a partial:
ISIL, URBN, and SANM gapped under their short triggers, no plays.
ETFC triggered in the last five minutes, no play.
ASIA triggered short (without market support) and worked:
Not surprisingly with a gap, the calls in the Messenger did better.
GS triggered long (with market support) and worked:
AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
RIMM triggered short (with market support) and worked:
EBAY triggered long (with market support) and did not work:
Rich's TZOO triggered short (with market support) and worked:
Rich's VMW triggered short (with market support) and worked:
AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 8 trades triggering with market support, 6 of them worked, 2 did not.
Stock Picks Recap for 6/2/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, LEAP triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
URBN triggered short (with market support) and did not work:
IDCC triggered short (without market support) and did not work, although it did trigger again later and worked:
BBBY triggered short (without market support due to the opening five minutes) and worked great:
In the Messenger, Rich's AAPL triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and did not work, although I restated it later and it did better:
His STRA triggered long (without market support) and worked:
His GS triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Many other trade calls did not trigger on a flat day.
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Stock Picks Recap for 6/2/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, LEAP triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
URBN triggered short (with market support) and did not work:
IDCC triggered short (without market support) and did not work, although it did trigger again later and worked:
BBBY triggered short (without market support due to the opening five minutes) and worked great:
In the Messenger, Rich's AAPL triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and did not work, although I restated it later and it did better:
His STRA triggered long (without market support) and worked:
His GS triggered long (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Many other trade calls did not trigger on a flat day.
In total, that's 3 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 1 did not.
Market Preview for 6/2/11
The SP decisively broke to the downside after a very weak ADP employment report premarket. The SP settled right at the 1312.50 4/8 level after losing 32 handles on the day. The Trin closed at 4.25 so odds favor some kid of a relief gap up Thursday.
Naz lost a full 52 on the day closing 2 open gaps in the process. If this follows through to the downside, this could be a key rejection of the 8/8 level and resistance just overhead. Price has closed back below the 50dma. Note that the MACD is still in a sell condition.
The multi sector daily chart shows the acute weakness in the banks which are close to becoming the weakest of the four on the chart.
The put/call ratio did record a spike, closing solidly over the 1.00 level.
The 10-day Trin is well above the 1.35 oversold threshold. There is plenty of oversold gas in the tank for a bounce if price reverses.
The BTK was the best of the worst. Note that while still range bound, the price action is tracing out a head and shoulders.
The XAU was slightly stronger than the broad market, down 2% on the day. Price is back below both the 50 and 200dmas.
The OSX lost 3% on the day but remains well above the May lows. This is the key level of support at hand.
The SOX was weaker than the Naz losing more than 3% on the day.
The BKX was the weakest sector on the day losing more than 4%. This is a new low and low close on the year. Note that the Gann box will frame shift because price closed below the -2/8 level.
Oil settled near $100 which is the 4/8 level:
Gold saw some buying but faded. Note that this is a trend termination candle, though it is not at range high and will have less potency.
Stock Picks Recap for 6/1/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, IACI (top pick) triggered long (with market support) and worked, although the market rolled over right after that:
MDAS triggered short (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked:
In the Messenger, BIDU triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
AMZN triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
AIG triggered short (with market support) and worked a little:
Rich's VMW triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for an easy partial:
Rich's RIMM triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Rich's TZOO triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked for a couple of points:
In total, that's 5 trades triggering with market support, all 5 of them worked.
Tradesight Market Preview for 6/1/11
The SP opened the session with a strong gap up, filled most of the gap and rallied to back to settle near the opening. Note that the close exceeded the February breakout. A short term DTL has been added to the chart to represent the potential breakout over the current down trend.
Naz was higher by 39 on the day and was relatively strong vs. the broad market. This is a positive development and welcomed by the equity bulls. Price closed right at the 8/8 level and below the 8/8 Gann level. The February high at 2400 is the next important level.
Multi sector daily chart:
The 10-day Trin is retreating from the 1.35 oversold reading last week and has plenty of gas in the tank before becoming overbought by moving to 0.85 or lower.
The SOX was top gun on the day, leading all major sectors with an advance of 1.5%. Price is pivoting off the completed 9 bar buy setup. The near term level for consideration is t he static trend line at 448.
The BTK rebounded and moved to the middle of the recent trading range.
The OSX was higher but slightly weaker than the broad market even with much higher energy prices on the day. Price has cleared the recent lateral trading range with a 279 trade to target (50dma).
The BKX closed back above the 200dma but the meaningful move is a close over the 50dma and the active DTL.
The XAU has been in a strong bounce since recently printing new YTD lows. The upward impulse has completed 9 day. This implies that price is likely to either consolidate and trade sideways or retrace.
Oil was higher and broke above the prior weeks high.
Gold was slightly lower and is working on 8 day up in the Seeker sell setup phase.
