Stock Picks Recap for 5/4/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
A really nice trading session. From the report, THOR triggered long (with market support) and worked:
KLIC triggered long (without market support) and worked enough for a partial:
LUFK triggered short (with market support) and worked:
CLNE triggered short (without market support due to the opening five minutes) and worked:
In the Messenger, Rich's LVS triggered long (without market support) and worked fine:
NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked:
RIMM triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In the afternoon, AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 5 trades triggering with market support, all 5 worked.
Forex Calls Recap for 5/4/11
A better day with a clean trigger. See EURUSD below for details of the winner. Here's the US Dollar Index with market directional tool lines:
New calls tonight and Chat.
EURUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop in the morning and stopped at C:
Tradesight Market Preview for 5/4/11
The SP lost 6 on the day, following through on yesterdays range high distribution candle. Note that the Seeker sell setup completed which recycled the Seeker exhaustion sell countdown. Price held above the 10ema and February high. This is now a key area of support.
Naz was lower on the day but managed to close near the midpoint of the session which erases any momentum that the pattern was building. A close under the 10ema and 8/8 Gann level is the point where downside momentum will begin.
Multi sector daily chart:
Interestingly the put/call ratio tanked which is a sign of complacency.
The 10-day Trin remains neutral which means there is gas in the tank for a move in either direction.
The BKX was the only major sector that was green. Two key areas to watch: The active DTL and the 50dma (green).
The BTK was lower on the day but essentially inside Tuesday’s real body, so nothing new technically.
The SOX broke down to settle right at the 50dma. A second, minor DTL has been added to the chart.
The XAU broke decisively below the 50dma, note how very subtly, the patter is tightening up. There are both high highs and lower lows present on the chart.
The OSX broke very hard and is now short-term oversold. The March lows are key support and also a major breakdown level.
Oil was lower on the day, settling right at the rising DTL. 106.50 is the next support level if the DTL doesn’t hold.
Gold futures got clocked and are starting to break. Look for a close under the 10ema for the first confirmation of a change in trend.
Stock Picks Recap for 5/3/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
The top short pick, VSEA, triggered (with market support) and worked great:
SFSF triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
In the Messenger, Rich's CRUS triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
AAPL triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's POT triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
In total, that's 5 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 2 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 5/3/11
Mixed bag with some early triggers that didn't work, but both triggers on the European session or later did. See EURUSD below.
Here's the US Dollar Index with market directional tool:
New calls and Chat tonight.
EURUSD:
Triggered short early (half size) at A and didn't work. Triggered long early at B and didn't work. For European session (normal size); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES triggered short at C, hit first target at D, second half stopped. In the morning, put trades back in, triggered long at E, hit first target at F, closed final piece under entry at end of chart:
Tradesight Market Preview for 5/3/11
The SP posted a distribution day losing 2 handles after gapping much higher. This leaves a bearish range high dark bodied candle. There are a couple of new interesting technical features. The pattern is now 8 day up in the Seeker sell setup and 11 days up in the Seeker sell countdown phase. Depending on how the next couple of candles play out the chart could either have a completed 9 bar sell setup which would recycle and nullify the setup phase or the chart could record a price flip and keep the 1-13 sell countdown phase in order. Note that the critical 8/8 Gann level is just overhead at 1375.
Naz remains boxed up and completed an insignificant 9 bar Seeker sell setup. Note that the Seeker completed sell countdown (magenta line) is still active and the risk level is the exact high water mark of the range. Creepy technical.
Multi sector daily chart:
The XAU was the last laggard on the day, undercutting the low close from April.
The XAU (magenta) has been bearishly underperforming gold futures (green) throughout the recent upward move in gold. This technical condition makes aggressively buying gold pullbacks hazardous. Gold is a better sell than buy until a deeper retracement.
The OSX also underperformed the market losing 3% on the day. Note that the CCI says that downward momentum is gathering.
The SOX underperformed Naz which is almost always bearish, price settled right at key short-term support at the 10ema and low or the range.
The BKX remains below the active DTL.
The BTK was top gun on the day, testing but failing at the prior high. Note the 8/8 level just overhead at 1500.
Oil had a wide ranging day, closing right at the 100% Fibonacci extension.
The higher prices in gold were rejected with the XAU/gold futures intermarket analysis suggesting lower prices for gold are in the cards.
Stock Picks Recap for 5/2/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, DNDN triggered long (with market support) and didn't work, a disappointment for a pattern like that:
BMRN triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and worked:
In the Messenger, Rich's AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked enough:
His DECK triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked:
GOOG triggered short (with market support) and worked:
AMGN triggered long (without market support) and never really got going:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 5/2/11
Very narrow action and not much to do. The narrow Levels spacing and early trading action made me wait to make calls until later than usual. Then we had a loser and a winner which adds up to not much in very narrow ranges.
Here's the US Dollar Index with market directional tool:
New calls and Chat tonight.
GBPUSD:
Set the short trigger exactly at A but never got through. Triggered long at B and stopped. Put them back in in the morning and triggered long at C, hit first target at D, and closed final at E:
The reviews of the other pairs are available to subscribers and trial members only.
Story of AAPL on Friday
Let's examine from a technical perspective what happened today on AAPL as it relates to Gap Fill Thresholds, Seeker Counts, and index rebalancing. AAPL lost size in the NASDAQ index, which rebalances over the weekend, which means that funds have to sell some of their shares.
First, here is how AAPL starting Friday, with an A over the first 5-minute bar. Note also that the red line from the prior session was the lower Gap Fill Threshold from that day, which the market used very specifically:
AAPL gets off to a strong start in the morning and runs up toward the upper Gap Fill Threshold (green line) in the first 30 minutes or so:
This is first resistance after that move. As trading continues, that level becomes more solid resistance:
And even moreso after a couple of hours:
When it finally does break through, we get an upside move that leads to a 9-bar Seeker setup count, although that doesn't have to be the high of the move:
In fact, as long as the 4-bar lookback mechanism remains in place, the energy can continue, which it does until we break the lookback and close the Seeker setup box, which produces the high:
Note that the actual 1 to 13 Seeker count is now well underway (which starts after the 9 ends); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and this ultimately leads to a 13 bar sell signal late in the session:
How well does that line up with what happens? Pretty well, as AAPL crumbles on late selling due to the rebalancing:
All of this was led by our technical tools for the session, even if the rebalancing situation is a little unusual.
Current View of the US Dollar Index
Let's discuss the broader view of the US Dollar Index. Let's start with a fairly short-term look at the daily chart, which broke down over the last two weeks:
That chart shows a clear downtrend in place, with a trendline that we can follow easily. Also, Friday's close would be 8 bars down on a new Seeker count. The 9th bar is typically where we start to see exhaustion.
The goal here is to measure the exhaustion from multiple timeframes and see what it gives us.
If you back the daily chart out a bit, you can see the inverted cup and handle over the last year or more that broke down, which is a significant technical break:
More importantly, however, we will back the chart out to a weekly chart, which shows more of the chart going back in time as we approach the true lows for the US Dollar Index. The key here is that we are within striking distance of the all-time lows, but also, with Projection Mode on with the Seeker tool, you can see that this week that just ended also gave us the 12th bar of the actual Seeker count (not the 9-bar setup count). A 13 would be a strong reversal buy signal on a longer-term timeframe, and if we were able to dip down and hit the prior lows in the process, that would be a double bottom, which would be interesting.
Even more interesting, take a look at the monthly chart. Here, you can see almost 2 decades of data, with the highs back in 2000-2001, and the low in 2008. But the Seeker setup count on the monthly is now 8 bars down, meaning that April could give us a 9 and be a short term energy flip:
In all timeframes, the US Dollar is heading toward significant reversal signals as it approaches the prior lows. The bounce could be interesting.