Forex Calls Recap for 4/19/11
US Dollar declined overnight, here's the index with market directional tool lines:
GBPUSD stopped twice and worked in the morning. Carrying over a piece (see below). New calls and Chat tonight.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and stopped. Triggered long at B and stopped. Said in the Messenger to put them back in in the morning. Triggered long at C, hit first target exactly at D, still holding second half:
Tradesight Market Preview for 4/19/11
The SP gapped sharply lower, closing near the opening level and losing 17 on the day. Note that price now quite a bit below the 50dma and the CCI continues lower but has not broken below the zero line.
Naz lost 19 on the day but settled near the HOD, intraday using the 4/8 level for support.
The multi sector daily chart shows the relative weakness in the BKX:
The 10-day Trin has turned up from just above the over bought threshold but is nowhere near the 1.35 oversold threshold.
The OSX was top gun, losing less then the broad market and also above the active static trend line. Price remains short-term bearish below both the 10 and 50dmas.
The XAU tested but did not break below the 4/8 level or the 50dma. Monday’s low is a very key short term support level. Set an alarm for a break below 212.50.
The BKX banking index broke to new lows on the move and also year-to-date. Price undercut the 50% fib which opens the door for a test of the 200dma.
The BTK was weaker than the Naz, settling right at the 100% fib extension.
The SOX was the last laggard, losing 2% on the day. Note that 420 was the breakout pivot on the daily chart.
Oil was lower on the day, possibly making a lower high in the process.
Gold was high on the day after some volatile intraday trading. 1500 is the 8/8 level and for now a key price target.
Stock Picks Recap for 4/18/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, IACI triggered long (without market support) and worked great:
SVNT triggered long (with market support) and worked:
STLD triggered short (with market support) and worked:
CSCO gapped under the short trigger, no play.
In the Messenger, Rich's NFLX triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
His CAT triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
His AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
In the afternoon, my FSLR triggered long (with market support) and worked great, all the way up to the gap fill:
In total, that's 5 trades triggering with market support, all 5 of them worked, several extremely well.
Forex Calls Recap for 4/18/11
Despite the S&P downgrade of US Debt, the Dollar got stronger for the session and used the midpoint as support most of the way:
We had a winner in the GBPUSD, see below. New calls and chat tonight.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, second half stopped, all before the craziness:
The rest of the pairs are available to subscribers and trial members only.
Stock Picks Recap for 4/15/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Not much for triggers on expiration Friday, but from the report, the top pick, INTU, triggered long (with market support) and worked great ($55.15 was the upper gap fill threshold level and it stopped right there):
In the Messenger, BIDU triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, both of them worked.
Forex Calls Recap for 4/15/11
Exactly what you would expect ahead of one of our Big Three numbers (CPI in this case) and the reason that we do half size ahead of those data points. See GBPUSD below. On to next week...
Here's the US Dollar Index with market directional tool:
As usual on the Sunday report, we'll take a look at the action from Thursday night/Friday, then look at the daily charts heading into the new week (check out NZDUSD) and then look at the Dollar Index.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A and long at B, both stopped in a narrow session, both were half size ahead of the data. Put them back in for full size in the morning after the data, triggered short at C, didn't reach first target quite, closed at D for end of week:
The rest of the report is available to members and trial users only.
Tax Day 2011 and What Tax Day Means to the Markets
Tax Day 2011 is upon us (April 15). What are some of the implications about Tax Day in general from the market's perspective?
Here's a few, statistically.
1) If the market has been moving in one direction for the last couple of month, Tax Day is a turning point over 75% of the time.
2) IRA money pushes into the market for 2010 until Tax Day, so that has a better chance of pushing the market higher in the early part of the year.
3) Sometimes, we get a feature, especially based on the prior year, where people owe money and pull money out of the market leading up to Tax Day, and then the market releases to the upside.
Let's take the last three years as examples.
In 2008, the market had a quick pullback at the start of April, which makes it look like people needed to pull money out of the market to pay their taxes, and then the market headed up right after Tax Day (point A):
In 2009, we did rally leading up to Tax Day, but given the market collapse of 2008, it's likely that most people didn't need to sell stocks to pay for gains. Also, remember that 2009 is unique in that the Fed's QE had just hit full effect from the market collapse, which means that the market was in the early stages of being pushed higher:
In 2010, the market had been on a run to the upside leading into Tax Day, and the top of the market for the first half of the year was right around this point:
So, what does that mean for 2011? This year is also different. First of all, volume has been horribly light, especially the last three weeks, and the market is sitting in the middle of a 4-5 month range instead of trending up or down. There doesn't appear to have been any selling to raise money to pay for taxes, but the IRA funding rally didn't materialize either. Here a current look:
So, at best we could say that there has been a slight bias to the downside the last two weeks. Given the fact that the market usually pivots after Tax Day, we do need to focus on what happens next week, which is core earnings reporting for Q1. Is the pressure off stocks with Tax Day behind? Or are things going to pull back now that whatever IRA buying pressure is over? Time will tell, but one thing is certain. In the last 15 years, the week AFTER Tax Day has been an important one in determining the market's direction for a while.
Stock Picks Recap for 4/14/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, VRUS triggered long (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
LRCX triggered short (with market support) and worked:
PSEC gapped under the short trigger, no play.
In the Messenger, ERTS triggered long (with market support) and worked, took all day:
AXP triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
Rich's AAPL triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
AMZN triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
Rich's FNSR triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His AMT triggered long (with market support) and literally went sideways, nothing either way:
In total, that's 5 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 1 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 4/14/11
We continue to trade winners and losers on a flat week with little range. Today was a winner on the GBPUSD. See below.
Here's the US Dollar Index with the market directional lines:
New calls tonight and chat, but will be half-size ahead of CPI.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop and stopped at C in the money overnight:
Stock Picks Recap for 4/13/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
No triggers off of the main report.
From the Messenger, Rich's JPM triggered short (with market support) and worked nice:
Rich's RIMM triggered long (with market support for the 1-minute bar that it triggered) and worked great:
Rich's NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, all 4 of them worked.