Forex Calls Recap for 3/29/11
Here's the US Dollar Index with market directional lines where the midpoint and opening level ended up being about the same, and we closed right above that level:
No new progress again. See GBPUSD for trade results.
New calls tonight and chat. All of the markets feel extremely slow this week.
GBPUSD:
One leg of the long triggered at A and stopped (the other two legs did not under our rules). Short triggered at B, reached down to within a couple of pips of the first target at C, and stopped at D:
Tradesight Market Preview for 3/29/11
The SP lost 8 handles, closing on the low of the day. A couple of important developments should be noted. The breakaway gap down was filled (well within one tick) and this will be crossed off the technical to do list by traders. Also, Monday’s candle was an outside day down—price exceeded the prior high and reversed closing below the low of the prior candle. This will be an important development if price follows through to the downside. Use a close under the 10ema for confirmation.
Naz showed relative weakness vs. the SP all session. This is seldom a bullish sign. Price never traded above the Friday high like the SP did which emphasizes this point. Keep in mind that this week is the end of the month and end of the quarter which means that volatility should be on the rise as the institutions bombard the market with their window dressing agendas.
Multi sector daily chart:
The 10-day Trin has yet to record a climatic over sold reading of 1.35+.
The OSX was top gun on the day, topping last week’s high close. The Seeker exhaustion signal remains active.
The SOX posted a narrow range day but was a technical positive because it outperformed the Naz.
The BTK was relatively flat:
The BKX was able to hold above the low set Friday. Set an alarm for a break under 51.55 which would be a bearish break of the two day inside pattern.
The XAU was the last laggard on the day losing 1.4%. The 10ema is key support right around 211.
Oil was lower by $1.55 possibly setting up a near term double top.
Gold was lower by 5 handles, note that the Seeker exhaustion signal is still in effect.
Stock Picks Recap for 3/28/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Nothing triggered off of the main report.
Rich's GS triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His MCP triggered long (without market support) and worked:
His NVDA triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 2 trades triggering with market support, both of them worked.
Forex Calls Recap for 3/28/11
Pretty narrow activity but a winning trade for us in the GBPUSD. See below.
Here's the US Dollar Index 5-minute chart for the session with our market directional tool:
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B for that 45-50 pip range, second half stopped:
NZDUSD Signal with the Seeker and ADR
Let's have an educational discussion about the importance of lining up key tools where we can measure turning points in the market from energy construction and really apply them when the market hits a major support or resistance point. We view the start of the Forex session as 5 pm EST, which is 14:00 on these charts on Pacific Time. Here is the first several hours of the NZDUSD action Thursday evening from the start of the session through the first few hours of the European session:
Clearly, the activity picks up with the European session start. We like to see volume and activity for the purposes of spotting trade setups. One of key tools, the Seeker, measures market energy by using a specific bar counting mechanism. After we get 9 bars that meet the counting criteria in one direction, we then look for the counting mechanism to terminate. When that happens, the tool draws a dashed box around that area of the chart. This represents a potential exhaustion point in the market. So let's see how this plays out now that activity has picked up for a few hours with the European session:
At this point, we've already had one box completion where the NZDUSD met our count criteria and ran in to R1 from the Pivot series (blue line). You can use this as a short entry in the market, and for several hours, the market doesn't head higher, so the energy was exhausted. Then, the market starts to head up again and we get another 9 bar count that leads to the completion of another Seeker box. This time, it is lines up against the dashed green line. What is that green line? That is the Average Daily Range high boundary for the NZDUSD. What that means is that the NZDUSD currently has traded an average of 93 pips per session over the last six months. At that green line, the distance from the low of the session (back near the start at 5 pm EST in this case) to the green line is 93 pips:
It often matters by itself, but in this case, we're also hitting that key area that means that the market has covered the range that it covers on average at the same time that the Seeker tool is getting an exhaustion signal. Again, that gives us a short entry with a stop a little bit over the highs. And how does this work? Let's see the rest of the session:
A 50-pip move back to the VWAP. The combination of the Average Daily Range line with our Seeker signal gave us two trades. One stopped for a small loss, and the other worked for 50 pips.
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Stock Picks Recap for 3/24/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, OPEN gapped over the trigger so no official play, but it did pull back and fill the gap and then triggered with market support, which is perfectly valid for traders to take under our system:
SFSF just gapped over the trigger, no play, never gave a valid setup to take later (didn't fill the gap).
GILD triggered long (with market support) and worked:
SINA also gapped, then filled, then triggered and worked:
LEAP triggered long (with market support) and worked:
FOSL triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In the Messenger, Rich's ROST triggered long (without market support) and worked (over a 5-minute bar high, which triggered in the third bar):
Rich's SLW triggered short (without market support due to the opening five minutes) and didn't work, although it worked later and he had an adder in the Messenger:
Rich's KLAC triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
Rich's AMZN triggered long (with market support) and worked:
RIMM triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, and all 6 worked.
Forex Calls Recap for 3/24/11
Here's the US Dollar Index with our market directional tool for the session:
Another clean winner and we stopped out of the final piece of the prior day's trade for a 150-pip gain. See GBPUSD below. New calls tonight and chat.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short at A, hit first target at B, lowered stop in the morning and stopped at C. Also stopped out of the short from the prior day here for 150 pips:
Tradesight Market Preview for 3/24/11
The SP finished higher by 3 on the day after recouping some serious intraday losses. The 2 day inside pattern broke to the downside but did not see follow on selling. This is a subtle sign of strength. Keep a close eye on the 50dma just overhead.
Naz was higher by 7, sweeping but settling below the recent highs. Price has yet to make a decisive move.
The multi sector daily chart show the good relative performance of the gold stocks:
The 10-day Trin continues to climb towards but has yet to record an oversold reading of 1.35 or higher.
The XAU was the top sector by a wide margin adding 3.6% on the day. Expect resistance at the static trend line. Since the pattern is only 3 days up, a break above the static trend line would be a velocity breakout since the Seeker setup is so early in the count.
The SOX settled right at the 10ema and outperformed the Naz and SP. This would be a very positive development for the bulls if the strength is sustained.
The BTK remains chronically boxed up:
The OSX closed little changed on the day. Note that the Seeker exhaustion signal is still active.
The BKX was the last laggard on the day. Price continues to hold above the 50% fib. This could be a key pivot, a coup for the bulls if they can turn the bias up and also a major failure if the level is lost.
Oil settled at a new high on the move and is now 9 days up.
Gold also settled at a new all time high, testing but not yet violating the Seeker exhaustion risk level.
Stock Picks Recap for 3/23/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
Nothing in the report triggered.
In the Messenger, NFLX triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial, although it barely looks like it here on the chart because it turned and ran up so much more, but it still went almost a point from the trigger:
Rich's FFIV triggered long (with market support) and worked great:
EBAY triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's MOS triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
KLAC triggered long (with market support) and worked:
GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's 6 trades triggering with market support, 5 of them worked, 1 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 3/23/11
US Dollar got stronger during the session eventually. Here's the Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tool:
Meanwhile, the nice EURJPY Value Area play that we called never triggered, and there was some activity on our GBPUSD, see below. New calls and Chat tonight.
GBPUSD:
Stopped out of the last piece of the prior day's long and then triggered short under Pivot early (half size) at A. That stopped, then we triggered short at B, might have stopped a piece of your trade, which is supposed to be a staggered exit above 20 pips plus spreads and it went 21 pips, and then hit first target at C and beyond, lowered stop and still holding final piece with stop over D:
