Tradesight Market Preview for 3/22/11
There was very little price movement in the equity futures. The SP posted a narrow range inside candle losing 5 on the day. A key level of resistance or breakout level remains just overhead from the 3/10 gap. Be sure to have an alarm set for 1300.
Naz posted a very narrow inside day settling higher by 3 handles. A breakout of the 2 day range could have some punch.
Multi sector daily chart:
The focus of the day was the rise in oil prices. Oil settled above 105 which gave the stock bulls pause. In the chart below there are two lines on the graph. The focal point is the Oil/SP ratio. This plots a line based on the value of the front month oil futures divided by the value of the SP futures. If the line is on the rise, the price of oil is outpacing that of the SP futures. This type of intermarket analysis can help make sense of money flows. Note how the nice push to the recent highs in the SP were unencumbered by rapidly rising oil prices (falling oil/sp ratio) but more recently the rising ratio has weighed on the performance of the SP futures. Keep a close eye on the price of oil because it is affecting equity prices.
The XAU was the only major sector up on the day as traders were looking for somewhere to park money.
Even though oil was very strong the OSX was lower on the day. The exhaustion signal remains active.
The BKX closed right at Monday’s low and remains in a downtrend.
The SOX was relatively weak and is only slightly higher on the year. Note how the 10ema is weighing on price.
Oil just missed making a new high on a settlement basis. The Seeker exhaustion countdown is only 8 days up out of the required 13 days up for a sell signal.
Gold was little changed:
Stock Picks Recap for 3/22/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, FLIR triggered long (without market support) and went enough for a partial:
ASBC triggered long (without market support due to opening five minutes) and didn't work:
WPRT triggered long (without market support) and didn't work:
In the Messenger, NFLX triggered short (with market support) and went enough for a partial:
AMGN triggered short (with market support) and really did nothing, but we'll count it as a loss as it did go almost $0.20 against:
FSLR triggered short (with market support) and worked great:
Rich's BRCM triggered short (with market support) and worked:
His FCX triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for an easy partial:
In total, that's 5 trades triggering with market support, 4 of them worked, 1 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 3/22/11
Another day, another winner in the GBPUSD, and this time, it's still going. See below.
Here's the US Dollar Index intraday with our market directional tools:
New calls and chat tonight. Seems like a very tame, yet organized, week.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, holding last piece long with stop under R1:
A Word About Browsing
At Tradesight, we like to keep our subscribers updated from time to time on major technology upgrades. While browsers might not sound like an important component from a trading perspective, let's face it, we all use them. Given the fact that the big three (Internet Explorer, Firefox, and Chrome) have pushed out big updates in the last week or two, I thought I'd take a moment to highlight them.
Keep in mind that you can easily install and uninstall and run Firefox and Chrome separately. If you don't like them, just don't use them, or uninstall. That might not be true for Microsoft's IE, which is much more integrated into your computer experience.
Internet Explorer 9. You can download it here. Microsoft has done a lot to its latest release to compete with the likes of Chrome and Firefox. The user interface is fast and scaled down. The menus are mostly gone. You can get everything done from the URL line or from a couple of key buttons for settings. Load times are much faster. And, to compete with the other two, Microsoft now offers a much more open system for plug-ins that should encourage users to make the product better and add features that Microsoft doesn't build in. If you have IE on your machine, you should upgrade. It won't take long and it is definitely worth your time. If you have a 64-bit computer and 64-bit version of Windows running, a 64-bit version of IE 9 will show you some significant speed enhancements.
Who is it primarily for? People that have computers and browse and don't want to view a browser as anything more than that. Upgrade to 9, don't stay on an older version.
Mozilla Firefox 4. You can download it here. Firefox was written as an open-source community project as competition to Internet Explorer. By version 2, it was enticing people that wanted a faster browser than IE 7.0 was offering at the time. By version 3, it had taken a considerable amount of market share from IE. The big secret to the success of Firefox, beyond some terrific social media marketing, has always been it's plug-in/add-on ability. Just about anyone can write a plug-in that does something in the browser (weather tracking, themes, spell checks, you name it); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES and if you want it, you download it and add it to the browser. It has always been a fast browser, but the new 4.0 increases speed even more. It's easy to download and install and get started. Strangely, while the other browsers are dropping the menu systems that traditionally come with software, Firefox just added a main drop down menu with several submenus.
Who is it primarily for? iPhone and iPad users that have PCs will typically want Firefox for two reasons: 1) They have Microsoft and 2) They hate Google. The other nice thing about Firefox is that there are now Mobile versions of it for various phones and tablet apps, and you can sync your bookmarks via the cloud to all devices with 4.0.
Chrome 10, Build 648.151. You can download it here. Like just about everything Google offers, the webpage where you download it is minimalist and boring, but the app itself is outstanding. Even leaner and meaner than Firefox, Chrome has really come into its own in the last few releases. The Favorites/Bookmarks system is the best of the browsers, and it loads everything quickly. The big selling point on Chrome is the outstanding amount of plug-in content that goes beyond just "plugs" and "add-ons" but actually allows you to run freeform applications from the browser. While Chrome is strangely not yet available as a built-in browser for Android phones or Android Honeycomb tablets such as the Motorola Xoom, you have to think it's coming. In the meantime, there is an application that you can use on those devices to sync your bookmarks to the phone/tablet and then touch to run the page in the default browser.
Who is it primarily for? Anyone that wants a browser that can give you diverse applications that sync over multiple devices for daily tasking and organization, plus anyone using Android-based phones or tablets.
Which is best? Hard to say. It depends on your needs as a user. If you just want to browse the web, any of them will do and IE 9.0 is certainly attractive. If you want to move away from hard software applications like Outlook and Word and move to more cloud-based applications, Chrome is the one. If you just want a highly customizable tight browser offering, Firefox. Or, install them all and you might find different benefits and uses from each, as I do.
In addition, click on these respective links to have a look at some of the applications that I find extremely useful, especially connecting your phone/tablet (Android) to each other or to your computer: Springpad, Dropbox, Evernote.
Takes the work out of staying organized once you get used to them.
By rating each of these about the same, we hope to keep all of our corporate sponsors happy. We'd even like to throw in a shout out to Apple for providing us with a stock that is easy to trade and has paid us so well over the last four years.
Tradesight Market Preview for 3/22/11
The SP rallied 18 handles Monday, leaving a gap below. Price has reclaimed the 10eam and has considerable overhead at the 50dma and 1300 breakdown gap. Note that in general, volumes were very light which makes the gap more prone to filling.
Naz was higher by 33 but settled in the lower half of the day’s range which is a cause for concern. The Naz was unable to settle above the 10ema, leaving a bearish divergence vs. the SP on the day.
Multi sector daily chart:
While the put/call ratio recorded a climatic reading last week, the 10-day Trin never crossed the oversold threshold of 1.35+.
The OSX was top gun on the day outpacing all other major sectors by a wide margin. This was equal to the strongest bar of the entire move and recorded the Seeker 13 sell signal on the close.
The weak dollar weighed in on the other likely sector, propelling the XAU to outperform the broad market. Price has settled above the 10 and 50ma’s.
The SOX was higher by 2 on the day, a close above 430 will turn the chart short-term positive.
The BTK remains range bound.
The BKX lagged all major indexes very badly and actually closed down on the day. Set an alarm for a break under Monday’s low at 51.76. Even if the oil stocks continue higher, the broad market will have trouble with the banks refusing to perform.
Oil was higher, settling just below near term resistance at 103.
Gold was high on the day finishing near the magnet area at 1430:
Stock Picks Recap for 3/21/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, VPHM triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
NTAP gapped over, no play.
In the Messenger, GS triggered short (without market support) and didn't work, although it triggered later and worked:
Rich's LVS triggered long (with market support) and worked:
In total, that's just 2 trades triggering with market support, 1 of them worked, 1 did not, on a dull day in the market.
Forex Calls Recap for 3/21/11
A fairly flat session. Here's the US Dollar Index with our market directional lines:
Very slow night on a lot of the pairs, such as the EURUSD (see below). However, our GBPUSD still managed to be a winner despite the range issues. See below. New calls tonight and Chat.
EURUSD:
Very flat action all night:
GBPUSD:
Triggered long at A, hit first target at B, raised stop in the morning and stopped at C in the money. Note the use of the VWAP:
COT 3-18-11
Hi Traders,
A good Monday to you! I have to admit, it was an amazing Tampa Bay weekend; I mean, it was the perfect illustration of “why” this time of years our state fills-up with out-of-staters driving very large cars, doing below the speed limit and with one directional flashing on, then off, then on, then… for miles and miles on any Florida Interstate. Yes, we love them. And, yes, May will be here soon.
Okay, the COT charts are here: https://tradesight.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/COT-3-18-11.pdf
Everything we discussed previously (as in last time) has continued in the same direction this past week, meaning if a currency was at extremes between the commercials and specs then, it is more extreme now. If it was in the middle of a move toward extreme levels, the direction hasn’t changed. And, if it was in a state of confusion, like the yen, it still is.
I will note that if one is looking for dollar bull, you’ll probably have to pay a private investigator to find one for you. To excerpt one of my letters: “Everyone is bearish on the dollar. Many newsletter writers are bearish on the dollar. Magazine headlines scream warnings of a dollar disaster. Financial TV talking heads are universally gloomy on the greenback. And while I agree with them over the long term, we’re ready to see a big dollar rally (and a euro fall) in the short term.”
My point, exactly. So, I suggest one continues to note what the COT charts are telling us while keeping an eye the price charts for longer-term setups (i.e., daily and 4-hour).
Cheers and great trading,
Clay
Stock Picks Recap for 3/17/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, a couple of the longs gapped over, no play.
NUVA triggered short (with market support) and worked enough:
In the Messenger, Rich's AMZN triggered short (with market support) and worked about a point for a partial. Also triggered again later and worked:
GOOG triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
NFLX triggered short (without market support) and didn't work. Triggered again later (with market support) and worked:
ERTS triggered long (with market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 2 of them worked, 2 did not. Two retriggers worked after sweeps that did not.
FOREX Calls Recap for 3/17/11
US Dollar Index with our market direction tool:
We had the perfect trade setup in the GBPUSD (if you've taken the course, you should have been drooling) and it triggered during the European session, which is ideal for that pair, and worked perfectly. See below.
New calls tonight and chat.
GBPUSD:
Triggered long into the Value Area over A, hit first target at B, covered the Value Area, raised stop in the morning and stopped at C:
