Forex Calls Recap for 3/10/11
Here's the US Dollar Index, which was nothing but green and up all day using our measurements:
Nice winner in the GBPUSD, still carrying some. New calls tonight and Chat.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short early at A, hit first target at B, gave you chance to take again at C or just after, hit first target at D, lowered stop in the morning and carrying rest over with a stop over E:
Stock Picks Recap for 3/10/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, ADSK triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and worked:
Rich's JDSU triggered short (without market support due to opening 5 minutes) and didn't really work:
NFLX triggered long (without market support) and ran huge all day, quite a performance from the one stock I saw that didn't open under its gap fill threshold:
COST triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
Rich's GMCR triggered long (without market support) and worked:
In total. ironically, that's only 1 trade triggering with market support, and it didn't work. NFLX and GMCR were the big winners.
Forex Calls Recap for 3/10/11
Here's the US Dollar Index, which was nothing but green and up all day using our measurements:
Nice winner in the GBPUSD, still carrying some. New calls tonight and Chat.
GBPUSD:
Triggered short early at A, hit first target at B, gave you chance to take again at C or just after, hit first target at D, lowered stop in the morning and carrying rest over with a stop over E:
Stock Picks Recap for 3/9/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
From the report, CROX triggered long (with market support) and did not work:
SRCL triggered long (with market support) and didn't do enough either way to count before it ran out of time:
FFIV triggered short (with market support) and worked:
In the Messenger, FSLR triggered long (with market support) and did not work:
Rich's FNSR triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's AAPL triggered short (with market support) and worked:
RIMM triggered short (with market support) and didn't work:
AMGN triggered short (with market support) and worked enough for a partial:
AAPL triggered short again (with market support) and worked for up to almost a point, which is enough for a partial, but then reversed quickly:
SNDK triggered short (with market support) and did not work:
Rich's AGCO triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 10 trades triggering (too many) with market support, 5 of them worked, 5 did not. That's too many trades triggering on a daily that was clearly flat in the market.
Forex Calls Recap for 3/9/11
The last half of the GBPUSD shorts from the last two days stopped in the money overnight, but new trades didn't work. See EURUSD and GBPUSD below.
Here was the US Dollar Index intraday.
New calls tonight and Chat but Trade Balance in the morning is one of our Big Three, plus lots of European data overnight, including BoE rate announcement.
EURUSD:
Triggered short early at A and gave you all evening to enter, stopped at B. Triggered long at C and stopped. Re-entered in morning and triggered at D and stopped:
GBPUSD:
Stopped out of remainder of last two day's short trades at A for gain:
Tradesight Market Preview for 3/10/11
To mark the two year anniversary of the stock market recovery it might be a good time to examine the longer term charts.
In the weekly chart below, price has recovered to between the 62 and 76% fibs.
Adding a wave count to the weekly ES chart shows that price has qualified for a complete move. Upward impulse 1 and 3 have completed and wave 5 will complete when a full corrective wave meets the minimum requirements.
In the weekly ES chart, the Seeker has just recently completed the exhaustion countdown. Note that this is the first completed 13 countdown of the entire move which highlights the maturity of the move.
The weekly chart with the addition of a Gann box has exceeded the 8/8 level and hit the +1/8 overbought threshold. If the +2/8 level is exceeded on a closing basis, the box will reset and put the old highs in play.
Wednesday, the ES lost 4 on the day but was contained within the prior days range. This is now a triple inside pattern and loaded with energy. The breakout (close outside of the range) should be decisive and a very important candle on the chart. Keep in mind that he short term pattern remains a rising wedge.
Naz was lower by 23 settling below the 50dma for the first time since Last August. So far the bulls have kept the MACD from breaking below the zero line. Holding or losing this level is very important.
Multi sector daily chart:
The BKX was the best performing major sector, save the defensive consumer durables, on the day.
The BTK posted an indecisive day:
The OIH lost the 10ema and this leading index will put pressure on the broad market if the momentum turns down.
The XAU was a source of funds, decisively breaking under the near term DTL. Keep an eye on this sector for short candidates.
The SOX index is making good on the Seeker 13 exhaustion signal and is very close to breaking the zero line of the MACD. If this important index continues lower there are very negative implications for the Naz.
Stock Picks Recap for 3/8/11
With each stock's recap, we will include a (with market support) or (without market support) tag, designating whether the trade triggered with or without market directional support at the time. Anything in the first five minutes will be considered WITHOUT market support because market direction cannot be determined that early.
FOSL triggered long (with market support); INSERT INTO `wp_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_category`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES kind of a mixed bag. It's an $80 stock that pulled back $0.30. We'll say it didn't work, because we don't like to pad the numbers, but it just depends exactly how tight you kept it:
From the Messenger, GOOG triggered long (with market support) and worked:
GS triggered long (with market support) and worked:
Rich's VRUS triggered long (with market support) and worked:
His AAPL triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
His GOOG triggered short (without market support) and didn't work:
In total, that's 4 trades triggering with market support, 3 of them worked, 1 did not.
Forex Calls Recap for 3/8/11
Doesn't look like much, but in fact, it was a good session as our GBPUSD short continues to work from the prior day, plus the new trade triggered short and hit the first target, so we have two trades in the same direction carrying forward with their second halves.
Meanwhile, here's the US Dollar Index intraday, with nothing but strength using our measuring tool from the European open:
New calls and Chat tonight. Trade Balance Thursday morning.
GBPUSD:
Bounced off the trigger but did not enter at A, triggered at B, hit first target at C, and stop on both trades from both days now over LBreak at D:
Tradesight Market Preview for 3/9/11
The SP posted an inside day. This kept yesterday’s candle from following through but also didn’t resolve the pattern to the upside. A decisive break is needed to force the players from the larger time frame to make a move.
Naz also posted information about motor trade insurance Evans & Lewis inside day but was relatively weaker than the SP. Again, a break and follow through is need to resolve the short term rising wedge pattern.
The 10-day Trin remains below the 1.35 oversold threshold:
The put/call ratio still has not recorded an high climatic reading where a large number of traders buy insurance.
The BKX was the top major sector, set an alarm and evaluate a test of the 50dma for a short opportunity.
The SOX was hit hard on Monday and did very little to bounce Tuesday. Set an alarm for a break under Monday’s low for shorts in the semiconductor index. Keep in mind that this relative weakness is bearish for the Naz and broad market.
The OSX saw some net selling. The pattern still hasn’t completed a Seeker 13 exhaustion, but only needs 2 more candles to do so. Price continues to hold above the 10ema.
The XAU was the last laggard on the day. A close below the near term DTL will put the 2011 lows in play.
Oil was unable to push higher and the CCI implies that it is losing momentum.
Gold was slightly lower on the day. Note that the Seeker exhaustion signal remains active.
Tradesight Market Preview for 3/8/11
The SP lost 11 handles on the day, settling below the key DTL. The trend will not turn negative until there is a day of follow through and even better a break under the recent range.
The hourly chart of the SP futures has price just barely hanging onto the falling wedge lower boundary. The upper window at the top of the pattern is key resistance going forward.
Naz lost 35 on the day, touching, but not breaking below the 50dma. A close below the rising regression channel would be the first confirmation of a trend change. Note that so far the bulls have been able to keep the MACD above the zero line. This is another key indicator to watch for confirmation of a CIT.
Multi sector daily chart:
The SOX may be developing a bearish divergence from the NDX 100. Since the SOX is often a leading index, continued downside in the SOX will likely take the NDX lower with it.
The BKX was the best performing major index on the day, only down ¾%. Target the 50% fib to cover shorts or reversal opportunity.
Leader, OSX posted an outside day down. A close under the 10ema would be a very negative development.
The XAU closed right at the 10ema. Even though gold futures were high on the day, the underperformance of the gold stocks is screaming that the high price of gold futures is suspect.
BTK remains range bound:
The SOX was the weakest major sector, lagging the SP and Naz very badly. Price has settled below the DTL for the first time in the move. Watch for a break under the zero line in the MACD for confirmation of a CIT.
Gold:
Oil:
